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Geologic Hazards Science Center images.

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Map showing the location of the tsunamigenic landslide in Tracy Arm southeast of Sawyer Island.
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Overview Map
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Overview Map
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Overview Map

Overview map and location of the Tracy Arm landslide-generated tsunami event. The imagery is not current, and the South Sawyer Glacier has retreated over a kilometer from what is depicted. 

Overview map and location of the Tracy Arm landslide-generated tsunami event. The imagery is not current, and the South Sawyer Glacier has retreated over a kilometer from what is depicted. 

Aerial photo of landslide deposit at bottom of mountain and into the water
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Aerial Photo Facing West
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Aerial Photo Facing West
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Aerial Photo Facing West

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is to the west.​

Aerial photo of steep mountainside showing the landslide source area.
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Source Area
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Source Area
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Source Area

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide source area captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is approximately north.​

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide source area captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is approximately north.​

Photo of shoreline with debris showing tsunami-inundated area
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Tsunami-Inundated Shoreline
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Tsunami-Inundated Shoreline
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Tsunami-Inundated Shoreline

Photo of tsunami-inundated shoreline at Williams Cove, near the mouth of Tracy Arm. Look direction is approximately north.​

Aerial photo of landslide taken across the fiord
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Across the Fiord Facing North
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Across the Fiord Facing North
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Across the Fiord Facing North

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide taken from across the fiord during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is approximately north.​

Photo of a mountainous landscape with the landslide on the right
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide and Tsunami Trimline
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide and Tsunami Trimline
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide and Tsunami Trimline

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide source area captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is approximately north.​

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide source area captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is approximately north.​

Before and after satellite imagery of the Tracy Arm landslide showing the toe of the South Sawyer Glacier missing after.
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Before and After Satellite Imagery
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Before and After Satellite Imagery
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Before and After Satellite Imagery

Comparison of (a) pre- and (b) post-event satellite images showing the source area of the August 10th landslide that impacted Tracy Arm. The dashed line in (a) shows the approximate location of the front of South Sawyer Glacier on August 7th, 2025 (mapped from imagery © 2025 Planet Labs PBC).

Comparison of (a) pre- and (b) post-event satellite images showing the source area of the August 10th landslide that impacted Tracy Arm. The dashed line in (a) shows the approximate location of the front of South Sawyer Glacier on August 7th, 2025 (mapped from imagery © 2025 Planet Labs PBC).

Aerial photo of mountainous landscape with landslide on the right hand side
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Source Area Facing Northwest
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Source Area Facing Northwest
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Source Area Facing Northwest

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide, and tsunami trimline, captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is to the northwest.​

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide, and tsunami trimline, captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is to the northwest.​

Photo of mountainside with landslide headscarp
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Headscarp
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Headscarp
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Headscarp

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide headscarp. Look direction is to the northwest.​

Photo looking towards a glacier on the left and a tsunami runup zone on the mountain on the right
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Runup Zone and South Sawyer Glacier
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Runup Zone and South Sawyer Glacier
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide Runup Zone and South Sawyer Glacier

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide across-fiord runup zone and South Sawyer Glacier captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is to the southeast.​

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide across-fiord runup zone and South Sawyer Glacier captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is to the southeast.​

Photo of mountainside with landslide in the center and glacier to the right
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide and South Sawyer Glacier Facing the Southeast
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide and South Sawyer Glacier Facing the Southeast
2025 Tracy Arm Landslide and South Sawyer Glacier Facing the Southeast

Oblique aerial photo of the August 10, 2025 landslide and South Sawyer Glacier captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is to the southeast.​

Photo of island in water surrounded by mountains
Sawyer Island after 2025 Tracy Arm Landslide
Sawyer Island after 2025 Tracy Arm Landslide
Sawyer Island after 2025 Tracy Arm Landslide

Oblique aerial photo of Sawyer Island captured during a field reconnaissance overflight on August 13, 2025. Look direction is to the southeast.​

Map of the United States and its territories showing 2024 International Building Code Seismic Design Categories and Risk Categories.
cir1555_fig02.png
cir1555_fig02.png
cir1555_fig02.png

Map of the United States and its territories showing 2024 International Building Code Seismic Design Categories and Risk Categories.

Map of the United States and its territories showing 2024 International Building Code Seismic Design Categories and Risk Categories.

Map of the United States and its territories showing the distribution of average annualized earthquake losses by region (modified from Jaiswal and others, 2023). Economic losses from earthquakes in these nine regions are estimated to average $14.7 billion dollars per year.
cir1555_fig04.png
cir1555_fig04.png
cir1555_fig04.png

Map of the United States and its territories showing the distribution of average annualized earthquake losses by region (modified from Jaiswal and others, 2023). Economic losses from earthquakes in these nine regions are estimated to average \$14.7 billion dollars per year.

Map of the United States and its territories showing the distribution of average annualized earthquake losses by region (modified from Jaiswal and others, 2023). Economic losses from earthquakes in these nine regions are estimated to average \$14.7 billion dollars per year.

Aftershock Forecast Sequence-Specific Model Parameters
AftershockForecastSequence-SpecificModelParameters.png
AftershockForecastSequence-SpecificModelParameters.png
AftershockForecastSequence-SpecificModelParameters.png

Aftershock Forecast Sequence-Specific Model Parameters equation 

The probability distribution for the number of aftershocks, P(N), and the forecast can then be computed using the same procedures as for the generic model, using Pseq-spec(a) instead of Pgeneric(a).

Aftershock Forecast Sequence-Specific Model Parameters equation 

The probability distribution for the number of aftershocks, P(N), and the forecast can then be computed using the same procedures as for the generic model, using Pseq-spec(a) instead of Pgeneric(a).

An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used. As the aftershock sequence progresses and additional data are collected, this distribution can be treated as a prior distribution and updated using Bayes’ rule. Posterior distributions at subsequent time intervals are shown. Figure from Page et al. (2016).
AftershockForecastfig6.gif
AftershockForecastfig6.gif
AftershockForecastfig6.gif

An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used.

An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used.

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, showing the information box at the top of the forecast and the four tabs of forecast information.
Mendocino_headerinfo-2.jpg
Mendocino_headerinfo-2.jpg
Mendocino_headerinfo-2.jpg

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, showing the information box at the top of the forecast and the four tabs of forecast information.

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, showing the information box at the top of the forecast and the four tabs of forecast information.

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Summary” tab selected, and “M4+” and “Show All” selections for magnitude and forecast duration.
Mendocino_M4all.jpg
Mendocino_M4all.jpg
Mendocino_M4all.jpg

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Summary” tab selected, and “M4+” and “Show All” selections for magnitude and forecast duration.
 

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Summary” tab selected, and “M4+” and “Show All” selections for magnitude and forecast duration.
 

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Summary” tab selected, and “M4+” and “Show All” selections for magnitude and forecast duration.
Mendocino_M41month.jpg
Mendocino_M41month.jpg
Mendocino_M41month.jpg

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Summary” tab selected, and “M4+” and “Show All” selections for magnitude and forecast duration.

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Summary” tab selected, and “M4+” and “Show All” selections for magnitude and forecast duration.

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Forecast Table” tab selected.
Mendocino_table.jpg
Mendocino_table.jpg
Mendocino_table.jpg

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Forecast Table” tab selected.

Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, with the “Forecast Table” tab selected.

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