In the intermountain west, seasonal precipitation extremes, combined with population growth, are creating new challenges for the management of water resources, ecosystems, and geologic hazards. This research contributes a comprehensive long-term context for a deeper understanding of past hydrologic variability, including the magnitude and frequency of drought and flood extremes and ecosystem impacts.
Statement of Problem: Water is of particular concern in the Western U.S. with the potential for future climate change leading to increasingly adverse changes in local to regional hydrologic processes. Concerns range from a decrease in availability and poorer quality of water to an increase in negative and costly extremes in drought, flood, fire, and other geologic hazards. The primary meteorological mechanisms that control Western U.S. water and climate occur within and over the Pacific Ocean, where linked oceanic and atmospheric dynamics drive atmospheric circulation patterns and associated weather. Instrumental records for the past ~100 years provide some context for precipitation patterns, but they are too short to capture the full range of known natural hydrologic and climatic variability.
Why this Research is Important: The prosperity of the American West depends on effective and strategic use of our natural water resources. By examining natural hydrologic variations over long time scales, this research provides a comprehensive context for a deeper understanding of drought and flood magnitude and frequency. This research also develops new insights into mechanisms and processes, which better inform predictions of seasonal precipitation extremes and corresponding landscape and ecosystem change.
Objective(s): This project develops past perspectives on water in the West from geologic archives in lake and wetland sediments and tree rings. Studies test hypotheses about the causes, mechanisms and impacts of past climate on a variety of hydrologic systems, including precipitation, snowpack, lakes, wetlands, glaciers, forests, and permafrost from the present day through the last glacial period, ~30,000 years ago.
Methods: Project studies utilize water isotope tracer methods and other paleoenvironmental proxies based upon sedimentology, geochemistry and paleoecological and radiometric dating methods. Research includes the development of new paleorecords in Alaska and the Rocky Mountains. Investigations of modern water isotope-climate processes are providing a deeper understanding of the hydroclimatic information that water isotope proxy records contain.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Rocky Mountain Regional Snowpack Chemistry Monitoring Study
Drivers and Impacts of North Pacific Climate Variability
Wetlands in the Quaternary
Holocene Synthesis Project
Data release for Assessing the Uncertainties in Climatic Estimates Based on Vegetation Assemblages: Examples from Modern Vegetation Assemblages in the American Southwest
Below are publications associated with this project.
Paleohydrological context for recent floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada
A stable isotope record of late Quaternary hydrologic change in the northwestern Brooks Range, Alaska (eastern Beringia)
Holocene hydroclimatic reorganizations in northwest Canada inferred from lacustrine carbonate oxygen isotopes
Assessing the uncertainties in climatic estimates based on vegetation assemblages: Examples from modern vegetation assemblages in the American Southwest
Comparing tree-ring based reconstructions of snowpack variability at different scales for the Navajo Nation
USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources
Climate and Ecological Disturbance Analysis of Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
Persistence and plasticity in conifer water-use strategies
Holocene thermokarst lake dynamics in northern Interior Alaska: The interplay of climate, fire, and subsurface hydrology
An assessment of plant species differences on cellulose oxygen isotopes from two Kenai Peninsula, Alaska peatlands: Implications for hydroclimatic reconstructions
Fish Lake limnology and watershed aqueous geochemistry, Fish Lake Plateau, Utah
Lake levels in a discontinuous permafrost landscape: Late Holocene variations inferred from sediment oxygen isotopes, Yukon Flats, Alaska
Below are news stories associated with this project.
- Overview
In the intermountain west, seasonal precipitation extremes, combined with population growth, are creating new challenges for the management of water resources, ecosystems, and geologic hazards. This research contributes a comprehensive long-term context for a deeper understanding of past hydrologic variability, including the magnitude and frequency of drought and flood extremes and ecosystem impacts.
Water isotopes refer to atoms of oxygen (O) and hydrogen (H) in water molecules (H2O) that have slightly different atomic masses due to different numbers of neutrons in their nucleus. Water is composed of one oxygen and two hydrogen atoms and the different combinations of their stable isotopes have molecular masses that range from 18 to 22. Statement of Problem: Water is of particular concern in the Western U.S. with the potential for future climate change leading to increasingly adverse changes in local to regional hydrologic processes. Concerns range from a decrease in availability and poorer quality of water to an increase in negative and costly extremes in drought, flood, fire, and other geologic hazards. The primary meteorological mechanisms that control Western U.S. water and climate occur within and over the Pacific Ocean, where linked oceanic and atmospheric dynamics drive atmospheric circulation patterns and associated weather. Instrumental records for the past ~100 years provide some context for precipitation patterns, but they are too short to capture the full range of known natural hydrologic and climatic variability.
Why this Research is Important: The prosperity of the American West depends on effective and strategic use of our natural water resources. By examining natural hydrologic variations over long time scales, this research provides a comprehensive context for a deeper understanding of drought and flood magnitude and frequency. This research also develops new insights into mechanisms and processes, which better inform predictions of seasonal precipitation extremes and corresponding landscape and ecosystem change.
Objective(s): This project develops past perspectives on water in the West from geologic archives in lake and wetland sediments and tree rings. Studies test hypotheses about the causes, mechanisms and impacts of past climate on a variety of hydrologic systems, including precipitation, snowpack, lakes, wetlands, glaciers, forests, and permafrost from the present day through the last glacial period, ~30,000 years ago.
Methods: Project studies utilize water isotope tracer methods and other paleoenvironmental proxies based upon sedimentology, geochemistry and paleoecological and radiometric dating methods. Research includes the development of new paleorecords in Alaska and the Rocky Mountains. Investigations of modern water isotope-climate processes are providing a deeper understanding of the hydroclimatic information that water isotope proxy records contain.
Water isotope tracer methods utilize slight mass differences between water molecules that cause them to behave differently during evaporation and condensation during the hydrologic cycle; between gas (humidity), liquid (rain) and solid (snow). Water isotopes are preserved in geologic archives when water molecules are locked into materials from which we can later release without altering their amounts, such as lake and wetland sediments and tree-rings. With well-understood relationships between temperature, humidity and atmospheric circulation, we can reconstruct the climate conditions that existed when precipitation was formed. - Science
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Rocky Mountain Regional Snowpack Chemistry Monitoring Study
Snowpacks collect atmospheric deposition throughout the snowfall season and offer a unique opportunity to obtain a composite sample of the chemistry of most of the annual precipitation at high elevations [> 1,800 meters]. The purpose of the snowpack network is to determine annual concentrations and depositional amounts of selected nutrients and other constituents in snow resulting from atmospheric...Drivers and Impacts of North Pacific Climate Variability
Climate model forecasts indicate an increase in extreme hydrologic events, including floods and droughts, for California and the western U.S. in the future. To better understand what the consequences of this future change in climate may be, USGS scientists are studying the frequency, magnitude, and impacts of past hydroclimate variability and extremes in the region. This project produces well...Wetlands in the Quaternary
Wetlands accumulate organic-rich sediment or peat stratigraphically, making them great archives of past environmental change. Wetlands also act as hydrologic buffers on the landscape and are important to global biogeochemical cycling. This project uses wetland archives from a range of environments to better understand how vegetation, hydrology, and hydroclimate has changed on decadal to multi...Holocene Synthesis Project
The Holocene Synthesis Project integrates a variety of information about past climate variability across the North American continent for the past ~12,000 years to characterize the spatial patterns of previous climate states, advance our understanding about mechanisms that drive natural climate variability, and improve the quality of climate models that are used to predict future climate patterns... - Data
Data release for Assessing the Uncertainties in Climatic Estimates Based on Vegetation Assemblages: Examples from Modern Vegetation Assemblages in the American Southwest
This data release includes climatic variables and associated descriptive material created for the purpose of assessing uncertainties associated with climatic estimates based on vegetation assemblages (Thompson and others, 2021). The data are from the interior of the western United States, including all of Arizona, and portions of California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, and Utah. The data - Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 25Paleohydrological context for recent floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada
The recent intensification of floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia has had profound cultural, ecological, and economic impacts that are expected to be exacerbated further by anthropogenic climate change. In part due to short instrumental runoff records, the long-term stationarity of hydroclimatic extremes in this major North American watershed remains poorly undeAuthorsRebecca Lynn Brice, Bethany Coulthard, Inga Homfeld, Laura Dye, Kevin AnchukaitisA stable isotope record of late Quaternary hydrologic change in the northwestern Brooks Range, Alaska (eastern Beringia)
A submillennial-resolution record of lake water oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) from chironomid head capsules is presented from Burial Lake, northwest Alaska. The record spans the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20–16k cal a bp) to the present and shows a series of large lake δ18O shifts (~5‰). Relatively low δ18O values occurred during a period covering the LGM, when the lake was a shallow, closed-AuthorsAmanda L. King, Lesleigh Anderson, Mark B. Abbott, Mary Edwards, Matthew S. Finkenbinder, Bruce P. Finney, Matthew WoollerHolocene hydroclimatic reorganizations in northwest Canada inferred from lacustrine carbonate oxygen isotopes
Sub-centennial oxygen (δ18O) isotopes of ostracod and authigenic calcite from Squanga Lake provides evidence of hydroclimatic extremes and a series of post-glacial climate system reorganizations for the interior region of northwest Canada. Authigenic calcite δ18O values range from −16‰ to −21‰ and are presently similar to modern lake water and annual precipitation values. Ostracod δ18O record nearAuthorsG. Everett Lasher, Mark B. Abbott, Lesleigh Anderson, Lindsey Yasarer, Michael Rosenheimer, Bruce P. FinneyAssessing the uncertainties in climatic estimates based on vegetation assemblages: Examples from modern vegetation assemblages in the American Southwest
Assemblages of fossil plant remains have been widely used to reconstruct past climatic conditions, usually through the application of methods that involve either finding vegetation analogues on the modern landscape (and using the modern associated climatic values as the basis for an estimate) or using the modern climatic ranges of individual taxa in an assemblage to determine the range of a givenAuthorsRobert S. Thompson, Katherine H Anderson, Richard T. Pelltier, Laura E. Strickland, Sarah Shafer, Patrick J. BartleinComparing tree-ring based reconstructions of snowpack variability at different scales for the Navajo Nation
Snowpack in the western U.S. is on the decline, largely attributed to increasing temperatures in the region. This is a critical issue for many Native American communities who disproportionately rely on local snow-fed water supplies. In light of a combined ongoing drought and limited climate information for the Navajo Nation, Navajo water managers face decision-making challenges complicated by pastAuthorsRebecca Lynn Brice, Christopher H. Guiterman, Connie A. Woodhouse, Carlee McClellan, Paul SheppardUSGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages and citiesAuthorsMark P. Waldrop, Lesleigh Anderson, Mark Dornblaser, Li H. Erikson, Ann E. Gibbs, Nicole M. Herman-Mercer, Stephanie R. James, Miriam C. Jones, Joshua C. Koch, Mary-Cathrine Leewis, Kristen L. Manies, Burke J. Minsley, Neal J. Pastick, Vijay Patil, Frank Urban, Michelle A. Walvoord, Kimberly P. Wickland, Christian ZimmermanByNatural Hazards Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Land Change Science Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Volcano Science CenterClimate and Ecological Disturbance Analysis of Engelmann spruce and Douglas fir in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
The effects of anthropogenic climate change are apparent in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), USA, with forest die-off, insect outbreaks, and wildfires impacting forest ecosystems. A long-term perspective would enable assessment of the historical range of variability in forest ecosystems and better determination of recent forest dynamics and historical thresholds. The objectives of this stuAuthorsBrittany Rinaldi, R. Stockton Maxwell, Thomas Callahan, Rebecca Lynn Brice, Karen Heeter, Grant L. HarleyPersistence and plasticity in conifer water-use strategies
The selective use of seasonal precipitation by vegetation is critical to understanding the residence time and flow path of water in watersheds, yet there are limited datasets to test how climate alters these dynamics. Here, we use measurements of the seasonal cycle of tree ring 18O for two widespread conifer species in the Rocky Mountains of North America to provide a multi-decadal depiction of thAuthorsMax Berkelhammer, Chris Still, Francois Ritter, Matthew Winnik, Lesleigh Anderson, Rosemary Carroll, Mariah Carbone, Kenneth WilliamsHolocene thermokarst lake dynamics in northern Interior Alaska: The interplay of climate, fire, and subsurface hydrology
The current state of permafrost in Alaska and meaningful expectations for its future evolution are informed by long-term perspectives of previous permafrost degradation. Thermokarst processes in permafrost landscapes often lead to widespread lake formation and the spatial and temporal evolution of thermokarst lake landscapes reflects the combined effects of climate, ground conditions, vegetation,AuthorsLesleigh Anderson, Mary E. Edwards, Mark D. Shapley, Bruce P. Finney, Catherine LangdonAn assessment of plant species differences on cellulose oxygen isotopes from two Kenai Peninsula, Alaska peatlands: Implications for hydroclimatic reconstructions
Peat cores are valuable archives of past environmental change because they accumulate plant organic matter over millennia. While studies have primarily focused on physical, ecological, and some biogeochemical proxies, cores from peatlands have increasingly been used to interpret hydroclimatic change using stable isotope analyses of cellulose preserved in plant remains. Previous studies indicate thAuthorsMiriam Jones, Lesleigh Anderson, Katherine Keller, Bailey Nash, Virginia Littell, Matthew J. Wooller, Chelsea JolleyFish Lake limnology and watershed aqueous geochemistry, Fish Lake Plateau, Utah
Fish Lake is located at 2696 m elevation on the Fish Lake Plateau with a bedrock geology of Oligocene to Pliocene age volcanics and Cretaceous to Eocene age sedimentary rocks. Lake bathymetry indicates a maximum depth of ~27 m and volume of 2.31 x 108 m3. The lake is dimictic with summer water column temperature declines of 13˚C between 7 to 15 m depth, whereas in spring and fall water column is iAuthorsDavid Marchetti, Lesleigh Anderson, Joseph J. Donovan, M. Scott Harris, Tyler HuthLake levels in a discontinuous permafrost landscape: Late Holocene variations inferred from sediment oxygen isotopes, Yukon Flats, Alaska
During recent decades, lake levels in the Yukon Flats region of interior Alaska have fluctuated dramatically. However, prior to recorded observations, no data are available to indicate if similar or more extreme variations occurred during past centuries and millennia. This study explores the history of Yukon Flats lake origins and lake levels for the past approximately 5,500 years from sediment anAuthorsLesleigh Anderson, Bruce P. Finney, Mark D. Shapley - News
Below are news stories associated with this project.