Land Use and Climate Change Team
Science Center Objects
We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.
We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future land-use and carbon dynamics. Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
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Date published: November 30, 2018Status: ActiveThe LUCAS Model
Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
For more information visit the Land Use...
Contacts: Benjamin SleeterAttribution: Western Geographic Science Center
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Date published: June 22, 2017Status: ActiveCalifornia land-change projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In...
Contacts: Benjamin Sleeter, Tamara WilsonAttribution: Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: June 19, 2017Status: ActiveNational land use projections
A major scientific challenge in global change research is connecting coarse-scale global assessments, particularly those involving the projection of land use, to scales relevant and useful for analysis and management. We have downscaled land use projections from two global scenario frameworks, the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs...
Contacts: Benjamin Sleeter, Jason SherbaAttribution: Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: June 22, 2017Status: ActiveLand use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes.
To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and...
Contacts: Benjamin Sleeter, Tamara WilsonAttribution: Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: June 22, 2017Status: ActiveLand change and water use in Mediterranean California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water-use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies.
We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in...
Contacts: Tamara Wilson, Benjamin SleeterAttribution: Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: June 22, 2017Status: ActiveThreats to protected areas
Land-use intensification poses significant threats to biodiversity both directly through the alteration and fragmentation of ecosystems and habitat loss, and indirectly through the disruption of supporting ecological processes. While protected areas offer refugia for species and ecosystems, they do not function in isolation from surrounding natural, working, or human-dominated landscapes....
Contacts: Tamara WilsonAttribution: Northwest - Pacific Islands, Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: June 22, 2017Status: ActiveLand use and carbon modeling in the Sierra Nevada Mountains
The goal of this study was to develop an integrated, regional-scale terrestrial carbon model, which can project changes in ecosystem carbon dynamics resulting from both changing biophysical conditions (e.g. CO2 fertilization, changes in climate) and land-change processes (e.g. urbanization, agricultural intensification, wildfire, harvest).
Our objective was to develop a modeling...
Contacts: Benjamin SleeterAttribution: Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: June 21, 2017Status: ActiveGreat Dismal Swamp carbon dynamics
The Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model was used to develop a baseline carbon (C) budget for the Great Dismal Swamp, VA., using an annualized Stock-Flow approach. The model infrastructure will be used going forward to assist with future land management and ecosystem services assessments.
For more information on the project go to ...
Contacts: Rachel R Sleeter, Benjamin SleeterAttribution: Western Geographic Science Center
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Year Published: 2018Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types...
Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Rayfield, Bronwyn; Sherba, Jason T.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Selmants, Paul; Loveland, Thomas R.Attribution: Western Geographic Science Center, National Land Imaging Program, United States of America, Wildland Fire ScienceView CitationSleeter, B.M., et al., 2018, Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States, Environmental Research Letters, doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab540
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types...
Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Rayfield, Bronwyn; Sherba, Jason T.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Selmants, Paul; Loveland, Thomas R. Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change
State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic...
Daniel, Colin J.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Frid, Leonardo; Fortin, Marie-Josée Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an...
Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T. Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling...
Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban,...
Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara
Baseline and projected future carbon storage and carbon fluxes in ecosystems of Hawai‘i
This assessment was conducted to fulfill the requirements of section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 and to improve understanding of factors influencing carbon balance in ecosystems of Hawai‘i. Ecosystem carbon storage, carbon fluxes, and carbon balance were examined for major terrestrial ecosystems on the seven main...
Selmants, Paul C.; Giardina, Christian P.; Jacobi, James D.; Zhu, Zhiliang A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem
BackgroundCarbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon...
Sleeter, Rachel; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Williams, Brianna; Hogan, Dianna M.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhu, Zhiliang Future land-use related water demand in California
Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition...
Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling
Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of...
Sherba, Jason T.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Davis, Adam W.; Parker, Owen P. Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model
Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more...
Sleeter, Rachel; Acevedo, William; Soulard, Christopher E.; Sleeter, Benjamin M. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios
Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable...
Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T.; Dick Cameron Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply
Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To...
Byrd, Kristin B.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Casey, Frank; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Flint, Alan L.; Sohl, Terry L.-
Date published: April 12, 2017
California Land-change Projections
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100.
Attribution: Western Geographic Science Center
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Date published: January 1, 2017Land Use and Land Cover Projections for California's 4th Climate Assessment
This dataset consists of modeled projections of land use and land cover and population for the State of California for the period 1970-2101. For the 1970-2001 period, we used the USGS's LUCAS model to "backcast" LULC, beginning with the 2001 initial conditions and ending with 1970. For future projections, the model was initialized in 2001 and run forward on an annual time step to 2100. In...
Attribution: Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: June 22, 2017Land use threats and protected areas - data
Data from Wilson, T.S., Sleeter, B.M., Sleeter, R. R., Soulard, C.E. 2014, Land use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based landscape level approach, Land, 3 (2): 362-389. Three maps showing land-use conversion potential, forest harvest potential, and conversion threat index are available for the Pacific Northwest, years 2000-2100.
Attribution: Northeast, Western Geographic Science Center -
Date published: February 1, 2017
Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: a case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest
Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and...
Attribution: Western Geographic Science Center
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Date published: May 18, 2016Changing California Land Uses will Shape Water Demands in 2062
If past patterns of California land-use change continue, projected water needs by the year 2062 will increase beyond current supply.
Attribution: Southwest, Western Geographic Science Center