Publications
Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.
Filter Total Items: 562
Drought resistance and resilience: The role of soil moisture–plant interactions and legacies in a dryland ecosystem
In many regions of the world, climate change is projected to reduce water availability through changes in the hydrological cycle, including more frequent and intense droughts, as well as seasonal shifts in precipitation. In water-limited ecosystems, such as drylands, lower soil water availability may exceed the adaptive capacity of many organisms, leading to cascading ecological effects during (co
Authors
Dave Hoover, Alix A. Pfennigwerth, Michael C. Duniway
Mapping world terrestrial ecosystems - GIS and cartographic approaches
No abstract available.
Authors
Roger Sayre, Madeline T. Martin, Deniz Karagulle, Charlie Frye, Timothy Boucher, Nicholas Wolff
A protocol for modelling generalised biological responses using latent variables in structural equation models
In this paper we consider the problem of how to quantitatively characterize the degree to which a study object exhibits a generalized response. By generalized response, we mean a multivariate response where numerous individual properties change in concerted fashion due to some internal integration. In latent variable structural equation modeling (LVSEM), we would typically approach this situation
Authors
James B. Grace, Magdalena Steiner
Instrumental variable methods in structural equation models
Instrumental variable regression (RegIV) provides a means for detecting and correcting parameter bias in causal models. Widely used in economics, recently several papers have highlighted its potential utility for ecological applications. Little attention has thus far been paid to the fact that IV methods can also be implemented within structural equation models (SEMIV). In this paper I present the
Authors
James Grace
Watershed and estuarine controls both influence plant community and tree growth changes in tidal freshwater forested wetlands along two U.S. mid-Atlantic rivers
The tidal freshwater zone near the estuarine head-of-tide is potentially sensitive to both sea-level rise and associated salinity increases as well as changing watershed inputs of freshwater and nutrients. We evaluated the vegetation response of tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) to changes in nontidal river versus estuarine controls along the longitudinal gradient of the Mattaponi and Pamu
Authors
Gregory B. Noe, Norman A Bourg, Ken Krauss, Jamie A. Duberstein, Cliff R. Hupp
Spatiotemporal dynamics of CO2 gas exchange from headwater mountain streams
Mountain streams play an important role in the global carbon cycle by transporting, metabolizing, and exchanging carbon they receive from the terrestrial environment. The rates at which these processes occur remain highly uncertain because of a paucity of observations and the difficulty of measuring gas exchange rates in steep, turbulent mountain streams. This uncertainty is compounded by large te
Authors
David W. Clow, Robert G. Striegl, Mark Dornblaser
Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change
Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, whit
Authors
Joan Dudney, Claire Willing, Adrian Das, Andrew M. Latimer, Jonathan C B Nesmith, John J. Battles
Holocene evolution of sea-surface temperature and salinity in the Gulf of Mexico
Flows into and out of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are integral to North Atlantic ocean circulation, and help facilitate poleward heat transport in the Western Hemisphere. The GoM also serves as a key source of moisture for much of North America. Modern patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the GoM are influenced by the Loop Current, its eddy-shedding dynamics, and the ensuing inte
Authors
Kaustubh Thiumalai, Julie N. Richey, Terrence M. Quinn
Changes in organic carbon source and storage with sea level rise-induced transgression in a Chesapeake Bay marsh
Organic matter (OM) accumulation in marsh soils affects marsh survival under rapid sea-level rise (SLR). This work describes the changing organic geochemistry of a salt marsh located in the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge on the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay that has transgressed inland with SLR over the past 35–75 years. Marsh soils and vegetation were sampled along an elevation gradient fr
Authors
Rachel Van Allen, Kathryn M. Schreiner, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Joseph A. Carlin
Earth's coastlines
With approximately half the world’s population living less than 65 miles from the ocean, coastal ecosystems are arguably Earth’s most critical real estate. Yet coastlines are among the more difficult features to accurately map; until now, no comprehensive high-resolution geospatial dataset existed. This chapter presents a new map and ecological inventory of global coastlines developed by Esri, the
Authors
Roger Sayre, Madeline T. Martin, Jill Janene Cress, Kevin Butler, Keith Van Graafeiland, Sean Breyer, Dawn Wright, Charlie Frye, Deniz Karagulle, Tom Allen, Rebecca Allee, Rost Parsons, Bjorn Nyberg, Mark J. Costello, Frank Muller-Karger, Peter Harris
FLUXNET-CH4: A global, multi-ecosystem database and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands
Methane (CH4) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH4 flux mea
Authors
Kyle B. Delwiche, Sarah Knox, Avni Malhotra, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Gavin McNicol, Sarah Feron, Zutao Ouyang, Dario Papale, Carlo Trotta, Eleonora Canfora, You-Wei Cheah, Danielle Christianson, Ma. Carmelita R. Alberto, Pavel Alekseychik, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, David P. Billesbach, Gil Bohrer, Rosvel Bracho, Nina Buchmann, David I. Campbell, Gerardo Celis, Weinan Chen, Jiquan Chen, Housen Chu, Higo J Dalmagro, Sigrid Dengel, Ankur R. Desai, Matteo Detto, Han Dolman, Elke Eichelmann, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Daniela Famulari, Kathrin Fuchs, Mathias Goeckede, Sébastien Gogo, Mangaliso J Gondwe, Jordan P. Goodrich, Pia Gottschalk, Scott L. Graham, Martin Heimann, Manuel Helbig, Carole Helfter, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, David Hollinger, Lukas Hörtnagl, Hiroki Iwata, Adrien Jacotot, Joachim Jansen, Gerald Jurasinski, Minseok Kang, Kuno Kasak, John King, Janina Klatt, Franziska Koebsch, Ken Krauss, Derrick Y.F. Lai, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Luca B Marchesini, Giovanni Manca, Jaclyn H Matthes, Trofim Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Bhaskar Mitra, Timothy H. Morin, Eiko Nemitz, Mats B. Nilsson, Shuli Niu, Walter C. Oechel, Patricia Y. Oikawa, Keisuke Ono, Matthias Peichl, Olli Peltola, Michele L. Reba, Andrew D. Richardson, William Riley, Benjamin RK Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Ayaka Sakabe, Camilo Rey Sanchez, Edward A. Schuur, Karina VR Schäfer, Oliver Sonnentag, Jed P. Sparks, Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens, Cove Sturtevant, Ryan C. Sullivan, Daphne J. Szutu, Jonathan E Thom, Margaret S. Torn, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Jessica Turner, Masahito Ueyama, Alex C. Valach, Rodrigo Vargas, Andrej Varlagin, Alma Vazquez-Lule, Joseph G. Verfaillie, Timo Vesala, George L Vourlitis, Eric Ward, Christian Wille, Georg Wohlfahrt, Guan Xhuan Wong, Zhen Zhang, Donatella Zona, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Benjamin Poulter, Robert B. Jackson
The Chesapeake Bay program modeling system: Overview and recommendations for future development
The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively
Authors
Raleigh Hood, Gary W. Shenk, Rachel L Dixon, Sean M. C. Smith, William P. Ball, Jesse Bash, R. Batiuk, Kathy Boomer, Damian C Brady, Carl Cerco, Peter Claggett, Kim de Mutsert, Zachary M. Easton, Andrew J Elmore, Marjorie A. M. Friedrichs, Lora A. Harris, Thomas F. Ihde, Iara Lacher, Li Li, Lewis C. Linker, Andrew Miller, Julia Moriarty, Gregory B. Noe, George Onyullo, Kenneth A Rose, Katherine Skalak, Richard Tian, Tamie L Veith, Lisa A. Wainger, Donald E. Weller, Yinglong J. Zhang