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Land Use and Climate Change Team

Active
By Western Geographic Science Center April 12, 2017

California land-change projections

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Land use and tsunami hazards in the Pacific Northwest

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Land change and water use in California

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We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.

We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future land-use and carbon dynamics. Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux. 

 

 

    The LUCAS model has been applied over multiple areas and temporal scales to track land-use and carbon dynamics as well as impacts on water use and protected areas. Learn more about the LUCAS model or explore our projects below. 

    Image of Mount Adams with grassland and trees

    The LUCAS Model

    Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center
    The LUCAS Model

    The LUCAS Model

    Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
    Learn More

    Below are data or web applications associated with this project.

    No Result Found

    Below are publications associated with this project.

    Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long...
    Authors
    Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Bronwyn Rayfield, Jason T. Sherba, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang Zhu, Paul Selmants, Thomas R. Loveland
    By
    Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, National Land Imaging Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Western Geographic Science Center, Wildland Fire Science
    Filter Total Items: 25

    Future land-use related water demand in California Future land-use related water demand in California

    Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in...
    Authors
    Tamara Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, D. Richard Cameron
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center

    Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

    Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and...
    Authors
    Rachel Sleeter, William Acevedo, Christopher E. Soulard, Benjamin M. Sleeter

    Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling

    Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition...
    Authors
    Jason T. Sherba, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Adam W. Davis, Owen P. Parker
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center

    Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented...
    Authors
    Tamara Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jason T. Sherba, Dick Cameron
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center

    Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

    Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland...
    Authors
    Kristin B. Byrd, Lorraine E. Flint, Pelayo Alvarez, Frank Casey, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Christopher E. Soulard, Alan L. Flint, Terry L. Sohl
    By
    Water Resources Mission Area, California Water Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center, Land Use Land Cover Modeling

    Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050 Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050

    Background Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced...
    Authors
    Shengli Huang, Shuguang Liu, Jinxun Liu, Devendra Dahal, Claudia Young, Brian Davis, Terry L. Sohl, Todd Hawbaker, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu
    By
    Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Land Use Land Cover Modeling

    Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

    Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the...
    Authors
    Tamara Sue Wilson, Benjamin Michael Sleeter, Adam Wilkinson Davis
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center

    Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

    Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected...
    Authors
    Tamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Rachel R. Sleeter, Christopher E. Soulard
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center

    Land-cover change in the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000 Land-cover change in the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000

    Land-cover change in the conterminous United States was quantified by interpreting change from satellite imagery for a sample stratified by 84 ecoregions. Gross and net changes between 11 land-cover classes were estimated for 5 dates of Landsat imagery (1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000). An estimated 673,000 km2(8.6%) of the United States’ land area experienced a change in land cover at...
    Authors
    Benjamin M. Sleeter, Terry L. Sohl, Thomas R. Loveland, Roger F. Auch, William Acevedo, Mark A. Drummond, Kristi Sayler, Stephen V. Stehman
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

    Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000 Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

    Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–A is the first in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Western United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes B, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Great Plains, the Midwest–South...
    By
    Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center

    Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

    Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management...
    Authors
    Benjamin M. Sleeter, Terry L. Sohl, Michelle A. Bouchard, Ryan R. Reker, Christopher E. Soulard, William Acevedo, Glenn E. Griffith, Rachel R. Sleeter, Roger F. Auch, Kristi Sayler, Stephen Prisley, Zhi-Liang Zhu
    By
    Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center, Land Use Land Cover Modeling

    Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States

    As part of the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project, land-use/land-cover change estimates between 1973 and 2000 are presented for the basin and range ecoregions, including Northern, Central, Mojave, and Sonoran. Landsat data were employed to estimate and characterize land-cover change from 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 using a post-classification comparison. Overall...
    Authors
    Christopher E. Soulard, Benjamin M. Sleeter
    By
    Western Geographic Science Center

    Below are partners associated with this project.

    Apex Resource Management Services (Apex RMS) Apex Resource Management Services (Apex RMS)

    State of California State of California

    The Nature Conservancy The Nature Conservancy

    We are a research team focusing on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics.

    We are interested in how land-use and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future land-use and carbon dynamics. Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux. 

     

     

      The LUCAS model has been applied over multiple areas and temporal scales to track land-use and carbon dynamics as well as impacts on water use and protected areas. Learn more about the LUCAS model or explore our projects below. 

      Image of Mount Adams with grassland and trees

      The LUCAS Model

      Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center
      The LUCAS Model

      The LUCAS Model

      Our team is developing the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS is a state-and-transition simulation model designed to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux.
      Learn More

      Below are data or web applications associated with this project.

      No Result Found

      Below are publications associated with this project.

      Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States

      Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can have profound effects on terrestrial carbon dynamics, yet their effects on the global carbon budget remain uncertain. While land change impacts on ecosystem carbon dynamics have been the focus of numerous studies, few efforts have been based on observational data incorporating multiple ecosystem types spanning large geographic areas over long...
      Authors
      Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jinxun Liu, Colin Daniel, Bronwyn Rayfield, Jason T. Sherba, Todd Hawbaker, Zhiliang Zhu, Paul Selmants, Thomas R. Loveland
      By
      Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, National Land Imaging Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Western Geographic Science Center, Wildland Fire Science
      Filter Total Items: 25

      Future land-use related water demand in California Future land-use related water demand in California

      Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in...
      Authors
      Tamara Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, D. Richard Cameron
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center

      Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

      Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and...
      Authors
      Rachel Sleeter, William Acevedo, Christopher E. Soulard, Benjamin M. Sleeter

      Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling Downscaling global land-use/land-cover projections for use in region-level state-and-transition simulation modeling

      Global land-use/land-cover (LULC) change projections and historical datasets are typically available at coarse grid resolutions and are often incompatible with modeling applications at local to regional scales. The difficulty of downscaling and reapportioning global gridded LULC change projections to regional boundaries is a barrier to the use of these datasets in a state-and-transition...
      Authors
      Jason T. Sherba, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Adam W. Davis, Owen P. Parker
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center

      Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

      Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented...
      Authors
      Tamara Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Jason T. Sherba, Dick Cameron
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center

      Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply

      Context In addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture. Objectives To understand the potential impacts to rangeland...
      Authors
      Kristin B. Byrd, Lorraine E. Flint, Pelayo Alvarez, Frank Casey, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Christopher E. Soulard, Alan L. Flint, Terry L. Sohl
      By
      Water Resources Mission Area, California Water Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center, Land Use Land Cover Modeling

      Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050 Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050

      Background Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced...
      Authors
      Shengli Huang, Shuguang Liu, Jinxun Liu, Devendra Dahal, Claudia Young, Brian Davis, Terry L. Sohl, Todd Hawbaker, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu
      By
      Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Land Use Land Cover Modeling

      Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

      Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the...
      Authors
      Tamara Sue Wilson, Benjamin Michael Sleeter, Adam Wilkinson Davis
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center

      Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

      Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected...
      Authors
      Tamara S. Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Rachel R. Sleeter, Christopher E. Soulard
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center

      Land-cover change in the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000 Land-cover change in the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000

      Land-cover change in the conterminous United States was quantified by interpreting change from satellite imagery for a sample stratified by 84 ecoregions. Gross and net changes between 11 land-cover classes were estimated for 5 dates of Landsat imagery (1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000). An estimated 673,000 km2(8.6%) of the United States’ land area experienced a change in land cover at...
      Authors
      Benjamin M. Sleeter, Terry L. Sohl, Thomas R. Loveland, Roger F. Auch, William Acevedo, Mark A. Drummond, Kristi Sayler, Stephen V. Stehman
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center

      Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000 Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

      Preface U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Professional Paper 1794–A is the first in a four-volume series on the status and trends of the Nation’s land use and land cover, providing an assessment of the rates and causes of land-use and land-cover change in the Western United States between 1973 and 2000. Volumes B, C, and D provide similar analyses for the Great Plains, the Midwest–South...
      By
      Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center

      Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales Scenarios of land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States: Utilizing the special report on emission scenarios at ecoregional scales

      Global environmental change scenarios have typically provided projections of land use and land cover for a relatively small number of regions or using a relatively coarse resolution spatial grid, and for only a few major sectors. The coarseness of global projections, in both spatial and thematic dimensions, often limits their direct utility at scales useful for environmental management...
      Authors
      Benjamin M. Sleeter, Terry L. Sohl, Michelle A. Bouchard, Ryan R. Reker, Christopher E. Soulard, William Acevedo, Glenn E. Griffith, Rachel R. Sleeter, Roger F. Auch, Kristi Sayler, Stephen Prisley, Zhi-Liang Zhu
      By
      Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Western Geographic Science Center, Land Use Land Cover Modeling

      Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States Late twentieth century land-cover change in the basin and range ecoregions of the United States

      As part of the US Geological Survey's Land Cover Trends project, land-use/land-cover change estimates between 1973 and 2000 are presented for the basin and range ecoregions, including Northern, Central, Mojave, and Sonoran. Landsat data were employed to estimate and characterize land-cover change from 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000 using a post-classification comparison. Overall...
      Authors
      Christopher E. Soulard, Benjamin M. Sleeter
      By
      Western Geographic Science Center

      Below are partners associated with this project.

      Apex Resource Management Services (Apex RMS) Apex Resource Management Services (Apex RMS)

      State of California State of California

      The Nature Conservancy The Nature Conservancy

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