Land Change Science Program

Publications

Listed here are the most recent publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science program.

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Filter Total Items: 430
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Year Published: 2019

Rapid inundation of the southern Florida coastline despite low relative sea-level rise rates during the late-Holocene

Sediment cores from Florida Bay, Everglades National Park were examined to determine ecosystem response to relative sea-level rise (RSLR) over the Holocene. High-resolution multiproxy analysis from four sites show freshwater wetlands transitioned to mangrove environments 4–3.6 ka, followed by estuarine environments 3.4–2.8 ka, during a period of...

Jones, Miriam; Wingard, G. Lynn; Stackhouse, Bethany; Keller, Katherine; Willard, Debra A.; Marot, Marci E.; Landacre, Bryan D.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.

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Year Published: 2019

Carbon dioxide emissions and methane flux from forested wetland soils of the Great Dismal Swamp, USA

The Great Dismal Swamp, a freshwater forested peatland, has accumulated massive amounts of soil carbon since the postglacial period. Logging and draining have severely altered the hydrology and forest composition, leading to drier soils, accelerated oxidation, and vulnerability to disturbance. The once dominant Atlantic white cedar, cypress, and...

Gutenberg, Laurel; Krauss, K.W.; Qu, John; Ahn, Changwoo; Hogan, Dianna M.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Xu, Chenyang
Gutenberg, L., Krauss, K.W., Qu, J.J., Ahn, C., Hogan, D., Zhu, Z., and Xu, C., 2019, Carbon dioxide emissions and methane flux from forested wetland soils of the Great Dismal Swamp, USA: Environmental Management, First Online, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-019-01177-4.

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Year Published: 2019

The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow‐dominated regions of the western United States on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data

We assess monthly temperature and precipitation data produced by four statistically based techniques that were used to downscale general circulation models (GCMs) in the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We drive a simple water-balance model with the downscaled data to demonstrate the effect of the...

Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.

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Year Published: 2019

Arctic vegetation, temperature, and hydrology during Early Eocene transient global warming events

Early Eocene global climate was warmer than much of the Cenozoic and was punctuated by a series of transient warming events or ‘hyperthermals’ associated with carbon isotope excursions when temperature increased by 4–8° C. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2, 53.5 Ma) hyperthermals were of short...

Willard, Debra A.; Donders, Timme H; Reichgelt, Tammo; Greenwood, David R; Peterse, Francien; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Sluijs, Appy; Schouten, Stefan

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Year Published: 2019

Environmental and geomorphological changes on the eastern North American Continental Shelf across the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary

Foraminiferal evidence from two sites in southern Maryland, eastern United States, reveals a series of rapid ecological changes on the continental shelf during the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Benthic and planktic foraminifer assemblages from the South Dover Bridge (SDB) and Mattawoman Creek-Billingsley Road (MCBR) cores...

Robinson, Marci M.; Spivey, Whittney

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Year Published: 2019

Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

Understanding how bird populations respond to changes in waterbody availability in the climatically variable Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America hinges on being able to couple hydrological and climate modeling to represent potential future landscapes. Model experiments run with the Pothole Complex Hydrologic Model using downscaled...

Mcintyre, N.E.; Liu, G.; Gorzo, J.; Wright, C.K.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Schwartz, F.

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Year Published: 2019

A multidisciplinary framework to derive global river reach classifications at high spatial resolution

Projected climate and environmental change are expected to increase the pressure on global freshwater resources. To prepare for and cope with the related risks, stakeholders need to devise plans for sustainable management of river systems, which in turn requires the identification of management-appropriate operational units, such as groups of...

Ouellet Dallaire, Camille; Lehner, Bernhard; Sayre, Roger; Thieme, Michele

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Year Published: 2019

A new 30 meter resolution global shoreline vector and associated global islands database for the development of standardized ecological coastal units

A new 30-m spatial resolution global shoreline vector (GSV) was developed from annual composites of 2014 Landsat satellite imagery. The semi-automated classification of the imagery was accomplished by manual selection of training points representing water and non-water classes along the entire global coastline. Polygon topology was applied to the...

Sayre, Roger; Noble, Suzanne; Hamann, Sharon L.; Smith, Rebecca; Wright, Dawn J.; Breyer, Sean P.; Butler, Kevin; Van Graafeiland, Keith; Frye, Charlie; Karagulle, Deniz; Hopkins, Dabney; Stephens, Drew; Kelly, Kevin; Basher, Zeenatul; Burton, Devon; Cress, Jill Janene; Atkins, Karina; Van Sistine, D. Paco; Friesen, Beverly; Allee, Rebecca; Allen, Tom; Aniello, Peter; Asaad, Irawan; Costello, Mark John; Goodin, Kathy; Harrison, Peter; Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Lillis, Helen; Manca, Eleonora; Muller-Karger, Frank E.; Nyberg, Bjorn; Parsons, Rost; Saarinen, Justin; Steiner, Jac; Reed, Adam

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Year Published: 2019

The 4.2 ka event, ENSO, and coral reef development

Variability of sea-surface temperature related to shifts in the mode of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been implicated as a possible forcing mechanism for the global-scale changes in tropical and subtropical precipitation known as the 4.2 ka event. We review records of coral reef development and paleoceanography from the tropical...

Toth, Lauren T.; Aronson, Richard B.

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Year Published: 2019

Reconstructing precipitation in the tropical South Pacific from dinosterol 2H/1H ratios in lake sediment

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere’s largest precipitation feature supplying freshwater to 11 million people. Despite its significance, little is known about the location and intensity of SPCZ precipitation prior to instrumental records, hindering attempts to predict precipitation changes in a warming world. Here...

Maloney, Ashley E.; Nelson, Daniel B.; Richey, Julie N.; Prebble, Matthew; Sear, David A.; Hassall, Jonathan D.; Langdon, Peter G.; Croudace, Ian W.; Zawadzki, Atun; Sachs, Julian P.

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Year Published: 2019

Changing station coverage impacts temperature trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Over the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), temperatures in widely used gridded data products do not warm as much as mean temperatures from a stable set of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, located at generally lower elevations, in most months of the year. This is contrary to expectations of elevation-dependent warming, which...

McAfee, Stephanie A.; McCabe, Gregory; Gray, Stephen; Pederson, Gregory T.

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Year Published: 2019

Evidence for shelf acidification during the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

A transect of paleoshelf cores from Maryland and New Jersey contains a ~0.19 m to 1.61 m thick interval with reduced percentages of carbonate during the onset of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Outer paleoshelf cores are barren of nannofossils and correspond to two minor disconformities. Middle paleoshelf cores contain a mixture of...

Bralower, Timothy J.; Kump, Lee R.; Robinson, Marci M.; Self-Trail, Jean M.; Lyons, Shelby L.; Babila, Tali; Ballaron, Edward; Freeman, Katherine H.; Hajek, Elizabeth A.; Rush, William; Zachos, James C.