Publications

Climate change is predicted to alter the current climate suitability under which plant species and communities occur. Predictions of change have focused on individual species or entire communities, but theory indicates plants will not respond uniformly to climate change within or between communities. We developed models of the current climate suitability (the baseline) of 66 plant...

Population estimates derived from monitoring efforts can be sensitive to the survey method selected, potentially leading to biased estimates and low precision relative to true population size. While small unmanned aerial systems (UAS) present a unique opportunity to survey avian populations while limiting disturbance, relatively little is known about how this method compares with more...

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is an important and widely used tool for conservation assessment. The IUCN uses information about a species’ range, population size, habitat quality and fragmentation levels, and trends in abundance to assess extinction risk. Genetic diversity is not considered, although it affects extinction risk. Declining populations...

Declining body sizes have been documented for several species of Pacific salmon; however, whether size declines are caused mainly by ocean warming or other ecological factors, and whether they result primarily from trends in age at maturation or changing growth rates remain poorly understood. We quantified changes in mean body size and contributions from shifting size-at-age and age...

Modern civilization has no collective experience with possible wide-ranging effects from a medium-sized asteroid impactor. Currently, modeling efforts that predict initial effects from a meteor impact or airburst provide needed information for initial preparation and evacuation plans, but longer-term cascading hazards are not typically considered. However, more common natural disasters...

In the long-term absence of disturbance, ecosystems often enter a decline or retrogressive phase which leads to reductions in primary productivity, plant biomass, nutrient cycling and foliar quality. However, the consequences of ecosystem retrogression for higher trophic levels such as herbivores and predators, are less clear. Using a post-fire forested island-chronosequence across which

Although groundwater exchange processes are known to modulate atmospheric influences on stream temperature and flow, the implications for ecological stability are poorly understood. Here, we evaluated temporal change in stream fish communities across a gradient of groundwater influence defined by karst terrain (carbonate parent materials) within the Potomac River basin of eastern North...

Climate can have a strong influence on species distributions, and amphibians with different life histories might be affected by annual variability in precipitation in different ways. The Sierra Nevada of California, United States, experienced some of the driest and wettest years on record in the early 21st Century, with variability in annual precipitation predicted to increase with...

Nurse plant effects occur when benefactor perennials facilitate beneficiary plants below their canopies. Two poorly understood aspects of nurse plant ecology include whether facilitation strengthens as nurse plants mature and whether reestablishing perennials through ecological restoration at disturbed sites can trigger facilitation akin to in natural plant communities. We examined these

Quantifying invasive species abundance informs management and control strategies. However, estimating abundance can be challenging, particularly when dealing with rare species early in the invasion process. Data generated from control strategies, such as removing invasive species, are usually not suited to conventional statistical modelling approaches. Hence, we developed a Bayesian...

Resolving natal populations for juvenile green turtles is challenging given their potential for extensive dispersal during the oceanic stage and ontogenetic shifts among nursery habitats. Mitochondrial DNA markers have elucidated patterns of connectivity between green turtle nesting populations (rookeries) and juvenile foraging aggregations. However, missing rookery baseline data and...

Merolimnic insects can accumulate and transport considerable amounts of aquatic contaminants to terrestrial systems. The rate of contaminant biotransport, termed insect-mediated contaminant flux (IMCF), depends on emergent insect biomass and contaminant accumulation, both functions of environmental concentration. Here we develop a mathematical model of IMCF and apply it to three...