Publications

Many wildlife monitoring programmes collect annual data on population abundance. The resulting abundance estimates fluctuate over time partly because of true population change and partly because of observation error. These two components of variation can be separated by fitting the estimates to a population dynamics model within a Bayesian state-space modelling framework. By constraining...

Modeling tools for estimating and forecasting shifts in species distributions are becoming increasingly valuable for conservation planning and response. This is especially true for wild bird populations, which have been declining across habitats and regions. Species distribution models (SDM) represent a diverse set of tools with options for addressing various sources of bias. Complex...

The goal of this project as written in the CRESCENT seed grant proposal was as follows: 1) reprocess selected profiles along strike from 45° to 48°N from the CASIE21 crustal-scale seismic data to obtain higher-resolution and higher-quality imaging of the uppermost 1-2 km of the accretionary wedge; 2) convert high-resolution USGS sparker seismic data from the time to depth domain to...

Data integration methods aim to improve species distribution estimates by incorporating multiple sources of uncertainty across datasets. Two major sources of uncertainty are: (1) variation in sampling effort across space and within datasets, and (2) variation in reliability associated with data collection protocols or timing among datasets. Our goal was to evaluate how different...

Ecological models should account for uncertainty to be most effective and useful. Yet, uncertainty from model covariates—unlike that from other sources, such as sampling error or process variability—is seldom explicitly incorporated. This can cause underestimates of uncertainty to cascade through model parameter estimates, predictions, and downstream uses. Burner et al. proposed a method...

Partial brood loss in Dryobates borealis (Red-cockaded Woodpecker), a federally threatened cooperative breeder in the USA, was not associated with increases in population density. Across three populations—Sandhills, North Carolina; Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina; and Eglin Air Force Base, Florida—we documented no support for density-dependent effects on either early or...

Objective People are exposed to mercury (Hg) through the consumption of fish. State and federal governments provide broad, often-generalized food safety guidance to reduce exposure; however, numerous rural fishing areas lack testing and location- or species-specific guidance. The aim of this study was to provide tangible, visible, or easily measured characteristics of Lake Trout...

Mineral commodity supply chain analyses rely on international trade data reported by individual countries as quantities of a mineral commodity form imported from (or exported to) a partner. However, export quantities frequently exceed a country’s domestic production, or occur when no production data are reported, suggesting that the trade partner is merely an intermediary in a...

The ability to estimate abundances of multiple wildlife species within an area is valuable for both conservation and ecological inquiry. Spatially explicit capture–recapture (SCR) methods are commonly used to obtain reliable population size estimates, particularly for low-density and individually identifiable carnivore species. However, estimating abundance within multi-species...

Several detailed studies have shown that residual oil zones (ROZs) can present significant resources for additional hydrocarbon recovery as well as subsurface carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration via enhanced oil recovery by injecting CO2 (CO2-EOR). Field development strategies included new wells drilled dedicated to main pay zones (MPZ) and ROZs, or existing wells in MPZs deepened to ROZs...

Previous efforts to characterize lahar threats posed to communities downstream of volcanoes have focused primarily on delineating hazard zones that lack information on lahar-arrival times and exposure estimates that implicitly treat threats to be the same regardless of distance from the volcano. Estimated lahar-arrival times, travel times for individuals to leave hazard zones, and...

Water-supply managers in the Colorado River Basin are tasked with balancing consumptive water use with natural water supply. Decisions associated with water-supply policy can include where and how much water consumption occurs, where water could be stored, and how to operate reservoirs. Water-supply decisions often affect other resources including energy production, recreation and...