2026 El Niño: What Does It Mean for Resource Managers?

El Niño events vary in strength, and very strong El Niños are sometimes informally labeled “Super El Niños” or, in 2015-2016, “Godzilla El Niño”. A “Super El Niño” doesn’t guarantee that the usual wet/dry patterns will occur, nor that it will be “super wet” or “super dry”. Rather, it shifts the odds towards particular climate conditions for many regions and gives seasonal forecasters more confidence in their predictions for those areas. For decision-making, a very strong El Niño is best understood as shifting the odds of particular climate conditions, rather than determining them. When those odds shift substantially, managers can interpret the change as an increase in specific risks—and, in some cases, opportunities—while recognizing that considerable uncertainty remains and that the expected outcome is not assured. 

There have not been many past “Super El Niño” events, which limits our ability to use historical analogues to anticipate the effects of the 2026–2027 El Niño. There have also been differences among the four “Super El Niños” that occurred in recent history. Two events, 1982–1983 and 1997–1998, were classic El Niños in which ocean waters were particularly warm off the coast of South America. Warming during the 1991–1992 and 2015–2016 El Niños extended nearly to the International Dateline, but warming along the western South American coast was relatively modest. There have also been differences in conditions outside of the tropics. For example, during 2015–2016, sea surface temperatures were above normal off both U.S. coasts, and warming in the Pacific Ocean extended to Hawaii and western Alaska. With all of these complexities, scientists rely on the general patterns observed during similar past events, along with sophisticated numerical seasonal forecast models, to anticipate conditions this year and next.