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Publications

Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.

Filter Total Items: 562

Negative impacts of summer heat on Sierra Nevada tree seedlings

Understanding the response of forests to climate change is important for predicting changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Seedlings represent a key demographic stage in these responses, because seedling establishment is necessary for population persistence and spread, and because the conditions allowing seedlings to survive and grow are often more restrictive th
Authors
Emily V. Moran, Adrian J. Das, Jon Keeley, Nathan L. Stephenson

Spatial patterns of meadow sensitivities to interannual climate variability in the Sierra Nevada

Conservation of montane meadows is a high priority for land and water managers given their critical role in buffering the effects of climate variability and their vulnerability to increasing temperatures and evaporative demands. Recent advances in cloud computing have provided new opportunities to examine ecological responses to climate variability over the past few decades, and at large spatial s
Authors
Christine M. Albano, Meredith L. McClure, Shana E. Gross, Wesley Kitlasten, Christopher Soulard, Charles Morton, Justin Huntington

Thin-layer sediment addition to an existing salt marsh to combat sea-level rise and improve endangered species habitat in California, USA

Current tidal marsh elevations and their accretion rates are important predictors of vulnerability to sea-level rise. When tidal marshes are at risk, adaptation measures, such as sediment addition to increase elevations, can be implemented to prevent degradation and loss. In 2016, wildlife managers prescribed a thin-layer sediment addition of locally sourced dredged material from Anaheim Bay to mi
Authors
Karen M. Thorne, Chase M. Freeman, Jordan A. Rosencranz, Neil K. Ganju, Glenn R. Guntenspergen

Guidance for assessing interregional ecoystem service flows

Ecosystem services (ES) assessments commonly focus on a specific biophysical region or nation and take its geographic borders as the system boundary. Most geographical regions are, however, not closed systems but are open and telecoupled with other regions through ES imports and exports, which are mediated by fluxes of matter, energy and information. Interregional ES flows are often linked to nati
Authors
Thomas Koellner, Aletta Bonn, Sebastian Arnhold, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Dor Friedman, Carlos Guerra, Thomas Kastner, Meidad Kissinger, Janina Kleeman, Christian Kuhlicke, Jianguo Liu, Laura Lopez-Hoffman, Alexandra Marques, Berta Martin-Lopez, Catharina J. E. Schulp, Sarah Wolff, Matthias Schröter

Salinity yield modeling of the Upper Colorado River Basin using 30-meter resolution soil maps and random forests

Salinity loading in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) costs local economies upwards of $300 million US dollars annually. Salinity source models have generally included coarse spatial data to represent non‐agriculture sources. We developed new predictive soil property and cover maps at 30 m resolution to improve source representation in salinity modeling. Salinity loading erosion risk indices w
Authors
Travis Nauman, Christopher P. Ely, Matthew Miller, Michael Duniway

Hydrologic lag effects on wetland greenhouse gas fluxes

Hydrologic margins of wetlands are narrow, transient zones between inundated and dry areas. As water levels fluctuate, the dynamic hydrology at margins may impact wetland greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes that are sensitive to soil saturation. The Prairie Pothole Region of North America consists of millions of seasonally-ponded wetlands that are ideal for studying hydrologic transition states. Using a l
Authors
Brian Tangen, Sheel Bansal

An integrated framework for ecological drought across riverscapes of North America

Climate change is increasing the severity and extent of extreme droughts events, posing a critical threat to freshwater ecosystems, particularly with increasing human demands for diminishing water supplies. Despite the importance of drought as a significant driver of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, current understanding of drought consequences for freshwater biodiversity is very limited. W
Authors
Ryan Kovach, Jason B. Dunham, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Craig Snyder, Erik A. Beever, Gregory T. Pederson, Abigail Lynch, Nathaniel P. Hitt, Christopher P. Konrad, Kristin Jaeger, Alan H. Rea, Adam J. Sepulveda, Patrick M. Lambert, Jason M. Stoker, J. Joseph Giersch, Clint C. Muhlfeld

Effects of 21st century climate, land use, and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial eco
Authors
Benjamin M. Sleeter, David Marvin, D. Richard Cameron, Paul Selmants, LeRoy Westerling, Jason R. Kreitler, Colin Daniel, Jinxun Liu, Tamara S. Wilson

Jump-starting coastal wetland restoration: A comparison of marsh and mangrove foundation species

During coastal wetland restoration, foundation plant species play a critical role in creating habitat, modulating ecosystem functions, and supporting ecological communities. Following initial hydrologic restoration, foundation plant species can help stabilize sediments and jump-start ecosystem development. Different foundation species, however, have different traits and environmental tolerances. T
Authors
Erik S. Yando, Michael Osland, Scott Jones, Mark W. Hester

Establishment of Salsola tragus on aeolian sands: A Southern Colorado Plateau case study

Russian-thistle (Salsola tragus L.), is a nonnative, C4 photosynthesizing, annual plant that infests disturbed and natural areas in the arid U.S. Southwest. Land managers of natural areas may need to decide whether a S. tragus infestation is potentially harmful and whether it should be actively managed. One factor informing that decision is an understanding of the conditions under which this weed
Authors
Kathryn A. Thomas, Margaret Hiza

Fire risk in revegetated bunchgrass communities Infested with Bromus tectorum

In rangeland ecosystems, invasive annual grass replacement of native perennials is associated with higher fire risk. Large bunchgrasses are often seeded to reduce cover of annuals such as Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass), but there is limited information about how revegetation reduces fire risk over the long-term. For this research note, we conducted a pilot study to assess how community composit
Authors
Steve O Link, Randall W Hill, Sheel Bansal

Shrub persistence and increased grass mortality in response to drought in dryland systems

Droughts in the southwest United States have led to major forest and grassland die‐off events in recent decades, suggesting plant community and ecosystem shifts are imminent as native perennial grass populations are replaced by shrub‐ and invasive plant‐dominated systems. These patterns are similar to those observed in arid and semiarid systems around the globe, but our ability to predict which sp
Authors
Daniel E. Winkler, Jayne Belnap, David L. Hoover, Sasha C. Reed, Michael C. Duniway