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Ryan R. McShane

As a hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, Ryan has been working on developing geospatial tools for predicting water availability in streams, and building models for assessing water use associated with energy development.

Ryan's research interests include: 1) understanding how scale modifies the influence of physiography and climate on the hydrologic and geomorphic processes that drive spatial and temporal patterns of high and low flow in streams; 2) understanding how changes in climate and water use for food and energy could affect water availability in streams; 3) understanding how water resources management influences the distribution and abundance of aquatic and riparian species; and 4) understanding how alterations to the management of water supply from streams might help sustain aquatic animals and riparian plants while still maintaining human demands for water. For his dissertation research, Ryan has been studying how changes in climate might affect water availability and use in the upper Green River basin in Wyoming, and how modifying streamflow regulation could influence the distribution and abundance of native and non-native aquatic and riparian species.

For his master’s research in New Mexico, Ryan studied how invasive fishes affected native aquatic organisms in streams during drought. After college, Ryan worked as a fishery biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey Western Fisheries Research Center in Nevada, studying the effects of invasive species and hydrologic and geomorphic alteration on threatened and endangered aquatic species in the Basin and Range and Sierra Nevada.

Education and Certifications

  • PhD in ecology at Colorado State University (in progress)

  • MS in fisheries and wildlife science from New Mexico State University

  • BS in natural resources and environmental science from University of Michigan

Science and Products

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Stream in the Flathead National Forest during fall

The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes

Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This p
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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The Implications of Stream Fragmentation for Climate Change Resilience of Northern Prairie Fishes

Dry stream sections are characteristic of most prairie streams. Native fish are highly adapted to variable environments, using refuge habitats (e.g., remaining wet stream fragments) to recolonize areas after seasonal drying. However, dams and other barriers can prevent recolonization of seasonally-dry stream sections habitats known to be critical spawning and rearing areas for many species. This p
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Measuring streamflow in Fogarty Creek

WLCI: Determining Streamflow Drivers in Wyoming Range Small Streams

Flow in small mountain and plains streams is dependent on many factors such as precipitation, groundwater inflow, topography, and geology.
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Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
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WLCI: Determining Streamflow Drivers in Wyoming Range Small Streams

Flow in small mountain and plains streams is dependent on many factors such as precipitation, groundwater inflow, topography, and geology.
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Estimated Nitrogen and Phosphorus Input to Fish Creek Watershed

Geospatial Research and Development to Understand Hydrologic Processes

All natural phenomena have a spatial component. Remote sensing, GIS, and geostatistical methods can be used to evaluate the spatial components of hydrologic phenomena and understand characteristics, such as water quality, streamflow, and hydraulics.
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Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
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Geospatial Research and Development to Understand Hydrologic Processes

All natural phenomena have a spatial component. Remote sensing, GIS, and geostatistical methods can be used to evaluate the spatial components of hydrologic phenomena and understand characteristics, such as water quality, streamflow, and hydraulics.
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Section of Prospect Creek where stream has no flow

Probability of Streamflow Permanence (PROSPER)

PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) Rivers and streams are constantly changing. Streamflows can change throughout the year and between years due to snowmelt, precipitation, diversions, and return flows. For many streams, these fluctuations determine whether a stream has year-round flow or not. PROSPER is a project initiated to better understand what causes these fluctuations in...
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Groundwater and Streamflow Information Program, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Idaho Water Science Center, Washington Water Science Center, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
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Probability of Streamflow Permanence (PROSPER)

PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) Rivers and streams are constantly changing. Streamflows can change throughout the year and between years due to snowmelt, precipitation, diversions, and return flows. For many streams, these fluctuations determine whether a stream has year-round flow or not. PROSPER is a project initiated to better understand what causes these fluctuations in...
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Oil and Gas 4

Estimating National Water Use Associated with Continuous Oil and Gas Development

Project Period: 2016-ongoing Cooperator: U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program Project Chiefs: Ryan McShane and Jeremy McDowell
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Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
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Estimating National Water Use Associated with Continuous Oil and Gas Development

Project Period: 2016-ongoing Cooperator: U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program Project Chiefs: Ryan McShane and Jeremy McDowell
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Data-Driven Drought Prediction Project Model Outputs for Select Spatial Units within the Conterminous United States

This metadata record describes model outputs and supporting model code for the Data-Driven Drought Prediction project of the Water Resources Mission Area Drought Program. The data listed here include outputs of multiple machine learning model types for predicting hydrological drought at select locations within the conterminous United States. The child items referenced below correspond to different
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Water Resources Mission Area

R scripts and results of estimated water use associated with continuous oil and gas development, Permian Basin, United States, 2010-19

For more than 100 years, the Permian Basin has been an important source of oil and gas produced from conventional reservoirs; directional drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing has greatly increased production in the past 10 years to the extent that the Permian Basin is becoming one of the world's largest continuous oil and gas (COG) producing fields. These recent techniques extract oil and g
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Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

Input data, model output, and R scripts for a machine learning streamflow model on the Wyoming Range, Wyoming, 2012-17

A machine learning streamflow (MLFLOW) model was developed in R (model is in the Rscripts folder) for modeling monthly streamflow from 2012 to 2017 in three watersheds on the Wyoming Range in the upper Green River basin. Geospatial information for 125 site features (vector data are in the Sites.shp file) and discrete streamflow observation data and environmental predictor data were used in fitting
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Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

Data to Estimate Water Use Associated with Continuous Oil and Gas Development, Permian Basin, United States, 1980-2019.

One of the largest conventional oil reservoirs in the United States, the Permian Basin, is becoming one of the world?s largest continuous oil and gas producing reservoirs. Continuous, or horizontal well drilling techniques extract oil and gas by directionally drilling and hydraulically fracturing the surrounding reservoir rock. The continuous extraction of oil and gas using hydraulic fracturing re
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New Mexico Water Science Center

Data to Estimate Water Use Associated with Continuous Oil and Gas Development, Williston Basin, United States, 1980-2017 (ver. 3.0, October 2022)

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Data Release provides data to estimate water use associated with continuous oil and gas development in the Williston Basin during 1980-2017. Data included: Data records from the national hydraulic fracturing chemical registry, FracFocus, including the state, county, latitude and longitude of each well, and the year and volume of water used for hydraulic fracturi
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Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center
Filter Total Items: 13

Regional streamflow drought forecasting in the Colorado River Basin using Deep Neural Network models

Process-based, large-scale (e.g., conterminous United States [CONUS]) hydrologic models have struggled to achieve reliable streamflow drought performance in arid regions and for low-flow periods. Deep learning has recently seen broad implementation in streamflow prediction and forecasting research projects throughout the world with performance often equaling or exceeding that of process-based mode
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Scott Douglas Hamshaw, Phillip J. Goodling, Konrad Hafen, John C. Hammond, Ryan R. McShane, Roy Sando, Apoorva Ramesh Shastry, Caelan E. Simeone, David Watkins, Elaheh (Ellie) White, Michael Wieczorek
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Climate Research and Development Program, Idaho Water Science Center, Oregon Water Science Center, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

Predictions and drivers of sub-reach-scale annual streamflow permanence for the upper Missouri River basin: 1989-2018

The presence of year-round surface water in streams (i.e., streamflow permanence) is an important factor for identifying aquatic habitat availability, determining the regulatory status of streams, managing land use change, allocating water resources, and designing scientific studies. However, accurate, high resolution, and dynamic prediction of streamflow permanence that accounts for year-to-year
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Roy Sando, Kristin Jaeger, William H. Farmer, Theodore B. Barnhart, Ryan R. McShane, Toby L. Welborn, Kendra E. Kaiser, Konrad Hafen, Kyle W. Blasch, Benjamin C. York, Alden Shallcross
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Water Resources Mission Area, Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center, Washington Water Science Center, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, Dakota Water Science Center

Estimates of water use associated with continuous oil and gas development in the Permian Basin, Texas and New Mexico, 2010–19, with comparisons to the Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana

The Permian Basin, in west Texas and southeastern New Mexico is one of the largest conventional oil and gas reservoirs in the United States and is becoming one of the world’s largest continuous oil and gas (COG) reservoirs. Advances in technology have enabled oil and gas to be extracted from reservoirs that historically were developed using conventional, or vertical, well drilling techniques. Conv
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Natalie A. Houston, Grady P. Ball, Amy E. Galanter, Joshua F. Valder, Ryan R. McShane, Joanna N. Thamke, Jeremy S. McDowell
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Water Resources Mission Area, New Mexico Water Science Center, Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center

A machine learning approach to modeling streamflow with sparse data in ungaged watersheds on the Wyoming Range, Wyoming, 2012–17

Scant availability of streamflow data can impede the utility of streamflow as a variable in ecological models of aquatic and terrestrial species, especially when studying small streams in watersheds that lack streamgages. Streamflow data at fine resolution and broad extent were needed by collaborators for ecological research on small streams in several ungaged watersheds of southwestern Wyoming, w
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Ryan R. McShane, Cheryl A. Eddy-Miller
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Water Resources Mission Area, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

Estimates of water use associated with continuous oil and gas development in the Permian Basin, Texas and New Mexico, 2010–19

In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey started a topical study to quantify water use in areas of continuous oil and gas (COG) development. The first phase of the study was completed in 2019 and analyzed the Williston Basin. The second phase of the study analyzed the Permian Basin using the same techniques and approaches used for the Williston Basin analysis. The Permian Basin was selected for the sec
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Joshua F. Valder, Ryan R. McShane, Joanna N. Thamke, Jeremy S. McDowell, Grady P. Ball, Natalie A. Houston, Amy E. Galanter
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Water Resources Mission Area, New Mexico Water Science Center, Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, Dakota Water Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2018 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2007 as a collaborative interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. During the past 11 years, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (more than 10 years) science-bas
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Patrick J. Anderson, Cameron L. Aldridge, Jason S. Alexander, Timothy J. Assal, Steven Aulenbach, Zachary H. Bowen, Anna D. Chalfoun, Geneva W. Chong, Holly Copeland, David R. Edmunds, Steve Germaine, Tabitha Graves, Julie A. Heinrichs, Collin G. Homer, Christopher Huber, Aaron N. Johnston, Matthew J. Kauffman, Daniel J. Manier, Ryan R. McShane, Cheryl A. Eddy-Miller, Kirk A. Miller, Adrian P. Monroe, Michael S. O'Donnell, Anna Ortega, Annika W. Walters, Daniel J. Wieferich, Teal B. Wyckoff, Linda Zeigenfuss
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Fort Collins Science Center, Nebraska Water Science Center, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Core Research Center

Beyond streamflow: Call for a national data repository of streamflow presence for streams and rivers in the United States

Observations of the presence or absence of surface water in streams are useful for characterizing streamflow permanence, which includes the frequency, duration, and spatial extent of surface flow in streams and rivers. Such data are particularly valuable for headwater streams, which comprise the vast majority of channel length in stream networks, are often non-perennial, and are frequently the mos
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Kristin Jaeger, Konrad Hafen, Jason B. Dunham, Ken M. Fritz, Stephanie K. Kampf, Theodore B. Barnhart, Kendra E. Kaiser, Roy Sando, Sherri L Johnson, Ryan R. McShane, Sarah Beth Dunn
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Water Resources Mission Area, Washington Water Science Center

Estimates of water use associated with continuous oil and gas development in the Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana, 2007–17

This study of water use associated with development of continuous oil and gas resources in the Williston Basin is intended to provide a preliminary model-based analysis of water use in major regions of production of continuous oil and gas resources in the United States. Direct, indirect, and ancillary water use associated with development of continuous oil and gas resources in the Williston Basin
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Ryan R. McShane, Theodore B. Barnhart, Joshua F. Valder, Seth S. Haines, Kathleen M. Macek-Rowland, Janet M. Carter, Gregory C. Delzer, Joanna N. Thamke
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Water Resources Mission Area, Water Availability and Use Science Program, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

Analytical framework to estimate water use associated with continuous oil and gas development

An analytical framework was designed to estimate water use associated with continuous oil and gas (COG) development in support of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Availability and Use Science Program. This framework was developed to better understand the relation between the production of COG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to sustain this type of energy development in the Unit
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Joshua F. Valder, Ryan R. McShane, Theodore B. Barnhart, Spencer L. Wheeling, Janet M. Carter, Kathleen M. Macek-Rowland, Gregory C. Delzer, Joanna N. Thamke
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Dakota Water Science Center, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2017 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2008 to address the scientific and conservation questions associated with land use changes because of energy development and other factors in southwest Wyoming. Over the past decade, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implem
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Linda Zeigenfuss, Ellen Aikens, Cameron L. Aldridge, Patrick J. Anderson, Timothy J. Assal, Zachary H. Bowen, Anna D. Chalfoun, Geneva W. Chong, Cheryl A. Eddy-Miller, Stephen S. Germaine, Tabitha Graves, Collin G. Homer, Christopher Huber, Aaron N. Johnston, Matthew J. Kauffman, Daniel J. Manier, Ryan R. McShane, Kirk A. Miller, Adrian P. Monroe, Anna Ortega, Annika W. Walters, Teal B. Wyckoff
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Fort Collins Science Center

Probability of streamflow permanence model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for
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Kristin Jaeger, Roy Sando, Ryan R. McShane, Jason B. Dunham, David Hockman-Wert, Kendra E. Kaiser, Konrad Hafen, John Risley, Kyle Blasch
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Water Resources Mission Area, Ecosystems Mission Area, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Idaho Water Science Center, Oregon Water Science Center, Washington Water Science Center

Conceptual model to assess water use associated with the life cycle of unconventional oil and gas development

As the demand for energy increases in the United States, so does the demand for water used to produce many forms of that energy. Technological advances, limited access to conventional oil and gas accumulations, and the rise of oil and gas prices resulted in increased development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) accumulations. Unconventional oil and gas is developed using a method that combines
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Joshua F. Valder, Ryan R. McShane, Theodore B. Barnhart, Roy Sando, Janet M. Carter, Robert F. Lundgren
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Dakota Water Science Center, Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center

Non-USGS Publications**

McShane, R.R., Auerbach, D.A., Friedman, J.M., Auble, G.T., Shafroth, P.B., Merigliano, M.F., Scott, M.L., and Poff, N.L., 2015, Distribution of invasive and native riparian woody plants across the western USA in relation to climate, river flow, floodplain geometry and patterns of introduction: Ecography, v. 38, no. 12, p. 1254-1265.
Auerbach, D.A., Deisenroth, D.B., McShane, R.R., McCluney, K.E., and Poff, N.L., 2014, Beyond the concrete: Accounting for ecosystem services from free-flowing rivers: Ecosystem Services, v. 10, p. 1-5.
Auerbach, D.A., Poff, N.L., McShane, R.R., Merritt, D.M., Pyne, M.I., and Wilding, T.K., 2012, Streams past and future: Fluvial responses to rapid environmental change in the context of historical variation, in Wiens, J.A., Hayward, G.D., Safford, H.D., and Giffen, C., eds., Historical environmental variation in conservation and natural resource management: Chichester, United Kingdom, John Wiley & Sons, p. 232-245.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

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A Spatially Continuous Model of Annual Streamflow Permanence Throughout the Pacific Northwest

An interdisciplinary team comprised of USGS and university scientists has developed the Probability of Streamflow Permanence Model or PROSPER which...

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