The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings.
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a dynamic modeling approach that has been developed by the United States Geological Survey in order to allow more detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms integrated with long-term coastal evolution (i.e., beach changes and cliff/bluff retreat) over large geographic areas (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS models all the relevant physics of a coastal storm (e.g.,tides, waves, and storm surge), which are then scaled down to local flood projections for use in community-level coastal planning and decision-making. Rather than relying on historic storm records, CoSMoS uses wind and pressure from global climate models to project coastal storms under changing climatic conditions during the 21st century.
Projections of multiple storm scenarios (daily conditions, annual storm, 20-year- and 100-year-return intervals) are provided under a suite of sea-level rise scenarios ranging from 0 to 2 meters (0 to 6.6 feet), along with an extreme 5-meter (16-foot) scenario. This allows users to manage and meet their own planning horizons and specify degrees of risk tolerance.
CoSMoS projections are currently available for the north-central coast (Half Moon Bay to Pt. Arena), San Francisco Bay, southern California, and the central California coast. The north coast of California will follow.
All modeling results are available as GIS shapefiles, with accompanying metadata, at USGS ScienceBase-Catalog. CoSMoS information can also be accessed, viewed, and downloaded through the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) flood mapper, which provides a user-friendly web-based tool for viewing all model results. OCOF also provides resources and guidance for helping communities navigate and utilize the wealth of information provided by CoSMoS.
To support coastal communities in their planning, the CoSMoS team has partnered with Dr. Nathan Wood (USGS, Western Geographic Science Center) to develop the Hazards Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) application. HERA displays estimates of residents, businesses and infrastructure that could be exposed to CoSMoS flooding projections from each coastal storm and sea level rise scenarios. This partnership of expertise in coastal processes and hazard risk and vulnerability sciences allowed the creation of an interactive website application that helps improve awareness and planning efforts regarding socioeconomic exposure to climate change related coastal hazards.
Although the CoSMoS modeling system was initially developed for use in the high wave-energy environment of the U.S. west coast, CoSMoS is not site-specific and can be utilized on sandy and/or cliff-backed coasts throughout the world. The prototype system developed for the California coast uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric forcing data from either the U.S. National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode) to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These regional conditions are then dynamically downscaled using a set of nested Delft3D wave (SWAN) and tide (FLOW) models, and are then linked at the coast to river discharge projections, fine-scale estuary models, and along the open coast to closely spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models. The elevation of the coast is updated for each sea level rise scenario based on the projected long-term evolution of the sandy beaches and cliffs.
CoSMoS Partners
CoSMoS modeling results have been used by a large number of federal and state partners as well as local communities throughout California. In the San Francisco Bay area and southern California regions, 14 municipalities, including the cities of San Francisco and Los Angeles, and 7 coastal counties (e.g., Marin, San Mateo, San Francisco, and Los Angeles) are actively using CoSMoS for local coastal planning efforts. The major utilities - Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric and the Los Angeles Department of Water & Power - are similarly using CoSMoS to assess their assets’ vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal storms. CoSMoS also supports a number of state agencies and federal partners; see the whole list on our Partners tab.
Funding for CoSMoS
In addition to extensive internal USGS funding, the CoSMoS team is thankful for the support from California state agencies and communities who have supported and encouraged CoSMoS model development.
Below are links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model
Estimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS
The influence of sea level rise on the regional interdependence of coastal infrastructure
Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region
HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios
Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales
Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain
A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability
Topobathymetric elevation model development using a new methodology: Coastal National Elevation Database
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are partners associated with this project.
- Overview
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings.
Example of CoSMoS model output for San Diego showing duration of flooding. Results displayed on Our Coast, Our Future flood mapper. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a dynamic modeling approach that has been developed by the United States Geological Survey in order to allow more detailed predictions of coastal flooding due to both future sea-level rise and storms integrated with long-term coastal evolution (i.e., beach changes and cliff/bluff retreat) over large geographic areas (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS models all the relevant physics of a coastal storm (e.g.,tides, waves, and storm surge), which are then scaled down to local flood projections for use in community-level coastal planning and decision-making. Rather than relying on historic storm records, CoSMoS uses wind and pressure from global climate models to project coastal storms under changing climatic conditions during the 21st century.
Projections of multiple storm scenarios (daily conditions, annual storm, 20-year- and 100-year-return intervals) are provided under a suite of sea-level rise scenarios ranging from 0 to 2 meters (0 to 6.6 feet), along with an extreme 5-meter (16-foot) scenario. This allows users to manage and meet their own planning horizons and specify degrees of risk tolerance.
Locations of currently available CoSMoS projections. CoSMoS projections are currently available for the north-central coast (Half Moon Bay to Pt. Arena), San Francisco Bay, southern California, and the central California coast. The north coast of California will follow.
All modeling results are available as GIS shapefiles, with accompanying metadata, at USGS ScienceBase-Catalog. CoSMoS information can also be accessed, viewed, and downloaded through the Our Coast, Our Future (OCOF) flood mapper, which provides a user-friendly web-based tool for viewing all model results. OCOF also provides resources and guidance for helping communities navigate and utilize the wealth of information provided by CoSMoS.
To support coastal communities in their planning, the CoSMoS team has partnered with Dr. Nathan Wood (USGS, Western Geographic Science Center) to develop the Hazards Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) application. HERA displays estimates of residents, businesses and infrastructure that could be exposed to CoSMoS flooding projections from each coastal storm and sea level rise scenarios. This partnership of expertise in coastal processes and hazard risk and vulnerability sciences allowed the creation of an interactive website application that helps improve awareness and planning efforts regarding socioeconomic exposure to climate change related coastal hazards.
Example of Hazards Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) analysis for San Diego. Although the CoSMoS modeling system was initially developed for use in the high wave-energy environment of the U.S. west coast, CoSMoS is not site-specific and can be utilized on sandy and/or cliff-backed coasts throughout the world. The prototype system developed for the California coast uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric forcing data from either the U.S. National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode) to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These regional conditions are then dynamically downscaled using a set of nested Delft3D wave (SWAN) and tide (FLOW) models, and are then linked at the coast to river discharge projections, fine-scale estuary models, and along the open coast to closely spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models. The elevation of the coast is updated for each sea level rise scenario based on the projected long-term evolution of the sandy beaches and cliffs.
CoSMoS Partners
CoSMoS modeling results have been used by a large number of federal and state partners as well as local communities throughout California. In the San Francisco Bay area and southern California regions, 14 municipalities, including the cities of San Francisco and Los Angeles, and 7 coastal counties (e.g., Marin, San Mateo, San Francisco, and Los Angeles) are actively using CoSMoS for local coastal planning efforts. The major utilities - Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric and the Los Angeles Department of Water & Power - are similarly using CoSMoS to assess their assets’ vulnerability to sea level rise and coastal storms. CoSMoS also supports a number of state agencies and federal partners; see the whole list on our Partners tab.
Funding for CoSMoS
In addition to extensive internal USGS funding, the CoSMoS team is thankful for the support from California state agencies and communities who have supported and encouraged CoSMoS model development.
Patrick Barnard explains how CoSMoS integrates information from the HERA mapper to understand the social and economic consequences of different flooding scenarios. - Science
Below are links to all CoSMoS Applications.
Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales. CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications and future climate scenarios to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety... - Data
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
- Publications
Below are publications associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 32Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computingAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Andrea C. O'Neill, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones, Juliette Finzi Hart, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. Limber, Maya Hayden, Michael Fitzgibbon, Jessica Lovering, Amy C. FoxgroverA model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century
Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts,AuthorsPatrick W. Limber, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Li H. EriksonProjected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model
Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding anAuthorsAndrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Sean Vitousek, Jonathan Warrick, Amy C. Foxgrover, Jessica LoveringEstimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS
On the open coast, flooding is largely driven by tides, storm surge, waves, and in areas near coastal inlets, the magnitude and co-occurrence of high fluvial discharges. Statistical methods are typically used to estimate the individual probability of coastal storm and fluvial discharge occurrences for use in sophisticated flood hazard models. A challenge arises when considering possible future cliAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. BarnardThe influence of sea level rise on the regional interdependence of coastal infrastructure
Sea level rise (SLR) is placing both immediate and long‐term pressures on coastal communities to take protective actions. Projects in the United States, and in many locations throughout the world, generally involve local jurisdictions raising the elevation of shoreline protection elements, with limited or no analysis of the feedback between shoreline management decisions and the impacts to water lAuthorsRuo-Quian Wang, Mark T. Stacey, Liv M. Herdman, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. EriksonClusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region
Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities baAuthorsMichelle Hummel, Nathan J. Wood, Amy Schweikert, Mark T. Stacey, Jeanne Jones, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. EriksonHERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios
The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level riAuthorsJeanne M. Jones, Kevin Henry, Nathan J. Wood, Peter Ng, Matthew JamiesonClimate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales
Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recessionAuthorsLi H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard, Sean Vitousek, Patrick W. LimberDownscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain
While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically coAuthorsAndrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. BarnardA model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolutionAuthorsSean Vitousek, Patrick L. Barnard, Patrick W. Limber, Li H. Erikson, Blake ColeInteractions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability
Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short‐term water‐rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a seriesAuthorsRuo-Quian Wang, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Michelle Hummel, Mark T. StaceyTopobathymetric elevation model development using a new methodology: Coastal National Elevation Database
During the coming decades, coastlines will respond to widely predicted sea-level rise, storm surge, and coastalinundation flooding from disastrous events. Because physical processes in coastal environments are controlled by the geomorphology of over-the-land topography and underwater bathymetry, many applications of geospatial data in coastal environments require detailed knowledge of the near-shoAuthorsJeffrey J. Danielson, Sandra K. Poppenga, John Brock, Gayla A. Evans, Dean J. Tyler, Dean B. Gesch, Cindy A. Thatcher, John Barras - Web Tools
Below are web applications and the larger, published data releases associated with this project. The larger data releases contain many models, projections, and data subsets.
- News
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 19 - Partners
Below are partners associated with this project.
Filter Total Items: 14