Climate Research and Development Program

Publications

Listed here are the most recent publications, reports and articles by the Climate R&D program.

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Filter Total Items: 777
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Year Published: 2021

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management...

Miller, Olivia L.; Putman, Annie Laura; Alder, Jay R.; Miller, Matthew P.; Jones, Daniel K.; Wise, Daniel

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Year Published: 2021

Native American fire management at an ancient wildland–urban interface in the Southwest United States

The intersection of expanding human development and wildland landscapes—the “wildland–urban interface” or WUI—is one of the most vexing contexts for fire management because it involves complex interacting systems of people and nature. Here, we document the dynamism and stability of an ancient WUI that was apparently sustainable for more than 500 y...

Roos, Christopher; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Ferguson, T. J.; Liebmann, Matthew J.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Welch, John; Margolis, Ellis; Guiterman, Christopher H.; Hockaday, William; Aiuvalasit, Michael; Battillo, Jenna; Farella, Joshua; Kiahtipes, Christopher

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Year Published: 2021

Does geomorphology determine vulnerability of mangrove coasts to sea-level rise?

The greatest climate-based threat to coastlines worldwide is sea-level rise. We tested the hypothesis that tropical coasts fringed by mangroves and receiving high inputs of terrigenous sediment are less vulnerable to sea-level rise than biogenic systems dependent upon peat formation for vertical land development. An analysis of published data...

McKee, Karen L.; Krauss, Ken; Cahoon, Donald

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Year Published: 2021

Valleys of fire: Historical fire regimes of forest-grassland ecotones across the montane landscape of the Valles Caldera National Preserve, New Mexico, USA

ContextMontane grasslands and forest-grassland ecotones are unique and dynamic components of many landscapes, but the processes that regulate their dynamics are difficult to observe over ecologically relevant time spans.ObjectivesWe aimed to demonstrate the efficacy of using grassland-forest ecotone trees to reconstruct spatial and temporal...

Dewar, J. J.; Falk, Donald A.; Swetnam, T. W.; Baisan, C. H.; Allen, Craig D.; Parmenter, R. R.; Margolis, Ellis

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Year Published: 2021

USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife...

Waldrop, Mark P.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Dornblaser, Mark; Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; James, Stephanie R.; Jones, Miriam C.; Koch, Joshua C.; Leewis, Mary-Cathrine; Manies, Kristen L.; Minsley, Burke J.; Pastick, Neal J.; Patil, Vijay; Urban, Frank; Walvoord, Michelle A.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Zimmerman, Christian
Waldrop, M.P., Anderson, L., Dornblaser, M., Erikson, L.H., Gibbs, A.E., Herman-Mercer, N.M., James, S.R., Jones, M.C., Koch, J.C., Leewis, M.-C., Manies, K.L., Minsley, B.J., Pastick, N.J., Patil, V., Urban, F., Walvoord, M.A., Wickland, K.P., and Zimmerman, C., 2021, USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2020-3058, 6 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/fs20203058.

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Year Published: 2021

Wildfires: Identification of a new suite of aromatic polycarboxylic acids in ash and surface water

Ash and surface water samples collected after wildfires in four different geographical locations (California, Colorado, Kansas and Alberta) were analyzed. The ash samples were leached with deionized water, and leachates were concentrated by solid phase extraction and analyzed by liquid chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry. In addition,...

Ferrer, Imma; Thurman, E. Michael; Zweigenbaum, Jerry A.; Murphy, Sheila F.; Webster, Jackson P.; Rosario-Ortiz, Fernando L.

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Year Published: 2021

Seed production patterns of surviving Sierra Nevada conifers show minimal change following drought

Reproduction is a key component of ecological resilience in forest ecosystems, so understanding how seed production is influenced by extreme drought is key to understanding forest recovery trajectories. If trees respond to mortality-inducing drought by preferentially allocating resources for reproduction, the recovery of the stand to pre-drought...

Wright, Micah Charles; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Das, Adrian; Keeley, Jon

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Year Published: 2021

Linking modern pollen accumulation rates to biomass: Quantitative vegetation reconstruction in the western Klamath Mountains, NW California, USA

Quantitative reconstructions of vegetation abundance from sediment-derived pollen systems provide unique insights into past ecological conditions. Recently, the use of pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm−2 year−1) has shown promise as a bioproxy for plant abundance. However, successfully reconstructing region-specific vegetation dynamics...

Knight, Clarke A.; Baskaran, Mark; Bunting, M. Jane; Champagne, Marie Rhondelle; Potts, Matthew D.; Wahl, David; Wanket, James; Battles, John J.

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Year Published: 2021

Upland burning and grazing as strategies to offset climate-change effects on wetlands

Wetland ecosystems perform a multitude of services valued by society and provide critical habitat for migratory birds and other wildlife. Despite their importance, wetlands have been lost to different local, regional, and global drivers. Remaining wetlands are extremely sensitive to changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Management of...

McKenna, Owen P.; Renton, David A.; Mushet, David M.; Edward S. DeKeyser

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Year Published: 2021

Atmospheric processing of iron-bearing mineral dust aerosol and its effect on growth of a marine diatom, Cyclotella meneghiniana

Iron (Fe) is a growth-limiting micronutrient for phytoplankton in major areas of oceans and deposited wind-blown desert dust is a primary Fe source to these regions. Simulated atmospheric processing of four mineral dust proxies and two natural dust samples followed by subsequent growth studies of the marine planktic diatom Cyclotella...

Hettiarachchi, Eshani; Ivanov, Sergei; Kieft, Thomas L.; Goldstein, Harland L.; Moskowitz, Bruce M.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Rubasinghege, Gayan

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Year Published: 2021

Snowpack signals in North American tree rings

Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn has intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet...

Coulthard, Bethany L.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Cook, Edward R; Littell, Jeremy S.; Smith, Dan J.

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Year Published: 2021

Upper Colorado River Basin 20th century droughts under 21st century warming: Plausible scenarios for the future

This study builds on a collaboration with a water resource management community of practice in the Upper Colorado River Basin to develop scenarios of future drought and assess impacts on water supply reliability. Water managers are concerned with the impacts of warming on water year streamflow, but uncertainties in projections of climate make the...

Woodhouse, Connie A.; Smith, Rebecca M.; McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Miller, W. Paul; Csank, Adam