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James Grace, Ph.D. (Former Employee)

Science and Products

Mangroves on the outside of a playa within Florida Bay

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
By
California Water Science Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Great Lakes Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
Learn More
Red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) in Everglades National Park

Synthesizing Surface Elevation Change Data to Advance Understanding of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Mangrove Forests and Salt Marshes

USGS and NPS partners are working together to analyze and synthesize long-term SET-MH measurements to improve understanding of coastal wetland soil elevation change and ecological responses to sea-level rise.
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Synthesizing Surface Elevation Change Data to Advance Understanding of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Mangrove Forests and Salt Marshes

Synthesizing Surface Elevation Change Data to Advance Understanding of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Mangrove Forests and Salt Marshes

USGS and NPS partners are working together to analyze and synthesize long-term SET-MH measurements to improve understanding of coastal wetland soil elevation change and ecological responses to sea-level rise.
Learn More
Coastal wetland on the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick, Canada

The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise (SLR) within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to: (a) conduct a...
By
Ecosystems Land Change Science Program
The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks

The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise (SLR) within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to: (a) conduct a...
Learn More
Ghost forest on the Delmarva Penninsula, MD

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center
The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...
Learn More
Salt marsh hydrologic measurement

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Condition in the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network

Salt marsh ecosystems along all US coastlines have been altered, degraded, and destroyed by human activities, including ditching and drainage of the marsh platform, tidal restrictions, discharge of pollutants, and introduction of invasive species. The National Park Service conducts long-term monitoring of salt marsh vegetation and nekton (fish and free-swimming crustaceans) to provide information...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Condition in the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Condition in the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network

Salt marsh ecosystems along all US coastlines have been altered, degraded, and destroyed by human activities, including ditching and drainage of the marsh platform, tidal restrictions, discharge of pollutants, and introduction of invasive species. The National Park Service conducts long-term monitoring of salt marsh vegetation and nekton (fish and free-swimming crustaceans) to provide information...
Learn More
Disentangling the mechanisms regulating coastal wetland sustainability in the face of rising sea levels

Quantitative Analysis Using Structural Equation Modeling

USGS scientists have been involved for a number of years in the development and use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This methodology represents an approach to statistical modeling that focuses on the study of complex cause-effect hypotheses about the mechanisms operating in systems. SEM is increasingly used in ecological and environmental studies and this site seeks to provide educational...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Quantitative Analysis Using Structural Equation Modeling

Quantitative Analysis Using Structural Equation Modeling

USGS scientists have been involved for a number of years in the development and use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This methodology represents an approach to statistical modeling that focuses on the study of complex cause-effect hypotheses about the mechanisms operating in systems. SEM is increasingly used in ecological and environmental studies and this site seeks to provide educational...
Learn More
Environmental Drivers & Biogeomorphic Process Controls on Vertical Wetland Development

Improving Our Ability to Forecast Tidal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise

Our overall objective is to understand what controls the vulnerability of coastal marshes to risks associated with global change drivers and rising sea levels. Fundamental questions pertaining to coastal wetland vulnerability still need to be addressed. What factors explain spatial and geographic variation in tidal wetland vulnerability? How do short term climatic events (storms) influence the...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Improving Our Ability to Forecast Tidal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise

Improving Our Ability to Forecast Tidal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise

Our overall objective is to understand what controls the vulnerability of coastal marshes to risks associated with global change drivers and rising sea levels. Fundamental questions pertaining to coastal wetland vulnerability still need to be addressed. What factors explain spatial and geographic variation in tidal wetland vulnerability? How do short term climatic events (storms) influence the...
Learn More
Disentangling the mechanisms regulating coastal wetland sustainability in the face of rising sea levels

Structural Equation Modeling in Support of Conservation

Understanding systems sometimes requires approaches that allow for both the discovery of the a system's structure and the estimation of its implications. Structural Equation Modeling - SEM - is one tool scientists use to better understand the complex world in which we live.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Structural Equation Modeling in Support of Conservation

Structural Equation Modeling in Support of Conservation

Understanding systems sometimes requires approaches that allow for both the discovery of the a system's structure and the estimation of its implications. Structural Equation Modeling - SEM - is one tool scientists use to better understand the complex world in which we live.
Learn More
Field observations of extreme sedimentation events

Mechanisms of Coastal Marsh Elevation Regulation

Sediment deposition serves an important role in the long-term maintenance of coastal marshes. USGS investigates the mechanisms of coastal marsh elevation regulation to help predict marsh sediment requirements under various sea level rise scenarios.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Land Management Research Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Mechanisms of Coastal Marsh Elevation Regulation

Mechanisms of Coastal Marsh Elevation Regulation

Sediment deposition serves an important role in the long-term maintenance of coastal marshes. USGS investigates the mechanisms of coastal marsh elevation regulation to help predict marsh sediment requirements under various sea level rise scenarios.
Learn More

North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation

This dataset includes literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands across the United States, Canada, and Mexico for the following ecosystem properties: canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation rates.
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Satellite-derived spectral indices to characterize wildfire impacts on forested sites in Glacier National Park, Montana Satellite-derived spectral indices to characterize wildfire impacts on forested sites in Glacier National Park, Montana

The dataset contains spectral indices values calculated from Landsat imagery, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and delta normalized burn ratio (NBR, deltaNBR). The spectral indices were computed for 1472 forested sites in the Glacier National Park, Montana, over the 1984-2021 period, in areas that were burned or not burned during the Robert Fire of 2003.
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States? When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States?

Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. We integrated these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. We evaluated three sea-level rise thresholds for wetland drowning (4, 7, and 10 mm/yr). Our study area...
By
Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Estuarine vegetated wetland change scenarios for estuaries in the conterminous United States, 1996–2019 Estuarine vegetated wetland change scenarios for estuaries in the conterminous United States, 1996–2019

This data release contains land cover-derived statistics regarding estuarine vegetated wetland area change within estuary drainage areas along the conterminous U.S. This dataset includes net change in estuarine vegetated wetland area based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Change Assessment Program (C-CAP) 1996 and 2016 land cover data. Net change was...
By
Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Mangrove damage along northern Gulf of Mexico from extreme freeze event on February 2021 Mangrove damage along northern Gulf of Mexico from extreme freeze event on February 2021

Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme events at the landscape scale is critical for understanding and responding to climate-driven change but is constrained by limited data availability. Here, we integrated remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify landscape-scale vegetation damage from...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Potential landward migration of coastal wetlands in response to sea-level rise within estuarine drainage areas and coastal states of the conterminous United States Potential landward migration of coastal wetlands in response to sea-level rise within estuarine drainage areas and coastal states of the conterminous United States

We quantified the potential area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and freshwater wetlands due to sea-level rise (SLR) at the estuary scale for 166 estuarine drainage areas and at the state scale for 22 coastal states and District of Columbia. We used 2016 Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) data in combination with the future wetland migration data under the...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Estuarine drainage area boundaries for the conterminous United States Estuarine drainage area boundaries for the conterminous United States

To quantify the potential for landward migration at the estuary level, we developed a geospatial dataset for the conterminous United States (CONUS) that identifies the boundaries for estuarine drainage areas. Nine estuarine drainage areas in south Florida were delineated using data developed by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD 2018). For the rest of CONUS, we used...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Brazoria NWR Prairie Resilience Data Brazoria NWR Prairie Resilience Data

In 1996, 400 tree-centered plots were established by first randomly choosing x- and y- coordinates from an imaginary grid overlaying the study area. Each random point was also randomly assigned a tree-size category from a pre-determined sampling scheme. The scheme was to include 20 trees from each of 5 size categories. Size/height categories were: less than 0.1m, 0.1-1m, 1-2m, 2-3m, and...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Ecosystem Condition Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Ecosystem Condition

Data Release for journal publication describing development of a multimetric index for assessing salt marsh condition in northeastern National Parks. This is the first application of an empirical, metric-selection algorithm to metrics from multiple trophic groups (vegetation and nekton). While MMIs derived from nekton or vegetation metrics alone were strongly correlated with human...
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center

Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands

Macroclimatic drivers, such as temperature and rainfall regimes, greatly influence ecosystem structure and function in tidal saline wetlands. Understanding the ecological influence of macroclimatic drivers is important because it provides a foundation for anticipating the effects of climate change. Tidal saline wetlands include mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats, which occupy...
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Vegetation, soil, and landscape data Vegetation, soil, and landscape data

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast spans two major climate gradients and represents an excellent natural laboratory for developing climate-influenced ecological models. In this project, we used these zones of remarkable transition to develop macroclimate-based models for quantifying the regional responses of coastal wetland ecosystems to climate variation. In addition to providing...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Filter Total Items: 187

Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge

There exists a long-standing disconnect between statistical and mechanistic approaches to the development of causal understanding. Statistical approaches, which have dominated the literature, have focused on the need to obtain perfectly unbiased estimates of causal effects often using either experimental, quasi-experimental or other methods. Mechanistic approaches have instead focused on
Authors
James Grace, Glenn Guntenspergen, Kevin Buffington, Justine Neville, Karen M. Thorne, Michael Osland, Melinda Martinez, Joel Carr, Debra A. Willard
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center

Causal effects verses causal mechanisms: Two traditions with different requirements and contributions towards causal understanding Causal effects verses causal mechanisms: Two traditions with different requirements and contributions towards causal understanding

The scientific aspiration of building causal knowledge has received little explicit discussion in ecology despite its fundamental importance. When methods are described as ‘causal’, emphasis is increasingly placed on statistical techniques for isolating associations so as to quantify causal effects. In contrast, natural scientists have historically approached the pursuit of causal...
Authors
James Grace, Nick Huntington-Klein, E. Schweiger, Melinda Martinez, Michael Osland, Laura C. Feher, Glenn Guntenspergen, Karen M. Thorne
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress

An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the...
Authors
Michael Osland, John B. Bradford, Lauren Toth, Matthew J. Germino, James Grace, Judith Drexler, Camille Stagg, Eric Grossman, Karen M. Thorne, Stephanie Romanach, Davina Passeri, Gregory Noe, Jessica Lacy, Ken Krauss, Kurt P. Kowalski, Glenn Guntenspergen, Neil K. Ganju, Nicholas Enwright, Joel A. Carr, Kristin Byrd, Kevin Buffington
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, California Water Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast

In this study, we explored the opportunities for tidal wetland landward migration in response to sea-level rise on the Pacific Coast of the United States. By employing a systematic spatial approach, we quantified the available space for wetland migration with sea-level rise across 61 estuarine drainage areas. Although many of the existing tidal wetlands are small patches, our analyses...
Authors
Karen M. Thorne, Kevin Buffington, Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Glenn Guntenspergen
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

An integrative paradigm for building causal knowledge An integrative paradigm for building causal knowledge

A core aspiration of the ecological sciences is to determine how systems work, which implies the challenge of developing a causal understanding. Causal inference has long been approached from a statistical perspective, which can be limited and restrictive for a variety of reasons. Ecologists and other natural scientists have historically pursued mechanistic knowledge as an alternative...
Authors
James Grace
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

A conterminous United States–Wide validation of relative tidal elevation products A conterminous United States–Wide validation of relative tidal elevation products

Recent large-scale spatial products have been developed to assess wetland position in the tidal frame, but nationwide comparisons and validations are missing for these products. Wetland position within the tidal frame is a commonly used characteristic to compare wetlands across biogeomorphic gradients and factors heavily into wetland vulnerability models. We utilize a dataset of 365...
Authors
Justine Neville, Glenn Guntenspergen, James Grace, Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center

Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States

Accelerated sea-level rise is an existential threat to coastal wetlands, but the timing and extent of wetland drowning are debated. Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. Here, we integrate these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across...
Authors
Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Glenn Guntenspergen, Kevin Buffington, Karen M. Thorne, Joel A. Carr, William Sweet, Brady Couvillion
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Observing coastal wetland transitions using national land cover products Observing coastal wetland transitions using national land cover products

Over the coming century, climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to cause widespread change to coastal wetlands. Estuarine vegetated wetlands can adapt to sea-level rise through both vertical development (i.e., biophysical feedbacks and sedimentation) and upslope/horizontal migration. Quantifying changes to estuarine vegetated wetlands over time can help to inform current and...
Authors
Nicholas Enwright, Michael Osland, Karen M. Thorne, Glenn Guntenspergen, James Grace, Gregory Steyer, Nate Herold, Bogdan Chivoiu, Minoo Han
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Gulf of America

Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change

In the face of accelerating climate change and rising sea levels, quantifying surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands can help to develop a more complete understanding of the implications of sea-level rise on coastal wetland stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach has been widely used to quantify and characterize surface elevation change...
Authors
Laura Feher, Michael Osland, Darren Johnson, James Grace, Glenn Guntenspergen, David R. Stewart, Carlos Coronado-Molina, Fred Sklar
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Perspectives on the scientific legacy of J. Philip Grime Perspectives on the scientific legacy of J. Philip Grime

Perhaps as much as any other scientist in the 20th century, J.P. Grime transformed the study of plant ecology and helped shepherd the field toward international prominence as a nexus of ideas related to global environmental change. Editors at the Journal of Ecology asked a group of senior plant ecologists to comment on Grime's scientific legacy.This commentary piece includes individual...
Authors
Jason Fridley, Xiaojuan Liu, Natalia Perez-Harguindeguy, F. Stuart Chapin III, Mick Crawley, Gerlinde De Deyn, Sandra Diaz, James Grace, Peter Grubb, Susan Harrison, Sandra Lavorel, Zhimin Liu, Simon Pierce, Bernhard Schmid, Carly Stevens, David A. Wardle, Mark Westoby
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Integrating remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify the effects of an extreme freeze event on black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the landscape scale Integrating remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify the effects of an extreme freeze event on black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the landscape scale

Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme events at the landscape scale is critical for understanding and responding to climate-driven change but is constrained by limited data availability. Here, we integrated remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify landscape-scale vegetation damage from...
Authors
Melinda Martinez, Michael Osland, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Camille Stagg, Simen Kaalstad, Gordon Anderson, Anna Armitage, Just Cebrian, Karen Cummins, Richard Day, Donna Devlin, Kenneth H. Dunton, Laura Feher, Alejandro Fierro-Cabo, Elena Flores, Andrew From, A. Hughes, David Kaplan, Amy Langston, Christopher J. Miller, Charles Proffitt, Nathan Reaver, Colt Sanspree, Caitlin Snyder, Andrew Stetter, Kathleen M. Swanson, Jamie E. Thompson, Carlos Zamora-Tovar
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Integrated analysis shows how the effects of extreme flooding events propagate through fish communities to impact amphibians Integrated analysis shows how the effects of extreme flooding events propagate through fish communities to impact amphibians

Research Highlight: Davis, C. L., Walls, S. C., Barichivich, W. J., Brown, M. E., & Miller, D. A. (2022). Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13874. Catastrophic events such as floods, hurricanes, winter storms, droughts and wildfires increasingly touch our lives either...
Authors
James Grace
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

As climate change accelerates, the risk of sudden, large-scale shifts in ecosystems is growing. A new USGS study examines the mechanisms behind these...

Read Article
Biodiversity Critical to Maintaining Healthy Ecosystems

Biodiversity Critical to Maintaining Healthy Ecosystems

Researchers have found clear evidence that biological communities rich in species are substantially healthier and more productive than those depleted...

Read Article

Science and Products

Mangroves on the outside of a playa within Florida Bay

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
By
California Water Science Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Great Lakes Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Coastal Wetland Vulnerability to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise: Understanding Ecological Thresholds and Ecosystem Transformations

Eighteen USGS coastal scientists from all four coasts of the conterminous United States are working together to advance the understanding of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal wetlands.
Learn More
Red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) in Everglades National Park

Synthesizing Surface Elevation Change Data to Advance Understanding of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Mangrove Forests and Salt Marshes

USGS and NPS partners are working together to analyze and synthesize long-term SET-MH measurements to improve understanding of coastal wetland soil elevation change and ecological responses to sea-level rise.
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Synthesizing Surface Elevation Change Data to Advance Understanding of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Mangrove Forests and Salt Marshes

Synthesizing Surface Elevation Change Data to Advance Understanding of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Mangrove Forests and Salt Marshes

USGS and NPS partners are working together to analyze and synthesize long-term SET-MH measurements to improve understanding of coastal wetland soil elevation change and ecological responses to sea-level rise.
Learn More
Coastal wetland on the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick, Canada

The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise (SLR) within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to: (a) conduct a...
By
Ecosystems Land Change Science Program
The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks

The Response of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-level Rise: Understanding how Macroscale Drivers Influence Local Processes and Feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise (SLR) within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to: (a) conduct a...
Learn More
Ghost forest on the Delmarva Penninsula, MD

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center
The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise: Understanding how macroscale drivers influence local processes and feedbacks

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to SLR within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to (a) conduct a national synoptic...
Learn More
Salt marsh hydrologic measurement

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Condition in the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network

Salt marsh ecosystems along all US coastlines have been altered, degraded, and destroyed by human activities, including ditching and drainage of the marsh platform, tidal restrictions, discharge of pollutants, and introduction of invasive species. The National Park Service conducts long-term monitoring of salt marsh vegetation and nekton (fish and free-swimming crustaceans) to provide information...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Condition in the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Condition in the Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network

Salt marsh ecosystems along all US coastlines have been altered, degraded, and destroyed by human activities, including ditching and drainage of the marsh platform, tidal restrictions, discharge of pollutants, and introduction of invasive species. The National Park Service conducts long-term monitoring of salt marsh vegetation and nekton (fish and free-swimming crustaceans) to provide information...
Learn More
Disentangling the mechanisms regulating coastal wetland sustainability in the face of rising sea levels

Quantitative Analysis Using Structural Equation Modeling

USGS scientists have been involved for a number of years in the development and use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This methodology represents an approach to statistical modeling that focuses on the study of complex cause-effect hypotheses about the mechanisms operating in systems. SEM is increasingly used in ecological and environmental studies and this site seeks to provide educational...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Quantitative Analysis Using Structural Equation Modeling

Quantitative Analysis Using Structural Equation Modeling

USGS scientists have been involved for a number of years in the development and use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This methodology represents an approach to statistical modeling that focuses on the study of complex cause-effect hypotheses about the mechanisms operating in systems. SEM is increasingly used in ecological and environmental studies and this site seeks to provide educational...
Learn More
Environmental Drivers & Biogeomorphic Process Controls on Vertical Wetland Development

Improving Our Ability to Forecast Tidal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise

Our overall objective is to understand what controls the vulnerability of coastal marshes to risks associated with global change drivers and rising sea levels. Fundamental questions pertaining to coastal wetland vulnerability still need to be addressed. What factors explain spatial and geographic variation in tidal wetland vulnerability? How do short term climatic events (storms) influence the...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Improving Our Ability to Forecast Tidal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise

Improving Our Ability to Forecast Tidal Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise

Our overall objective is to understand what controls the vulnerability of coastal marshes to risks associated with global change drivers and rising sea levels. Fundamental questions pertaining to coastal wetland vulnerability still need to be addressed. What factors explain spatial and geographic variation in tidal wetland vulnerability? How do short term climatic events (storms) influence the...
Learn More
Disentangling the mechanisms regulating coastal wetland sustainability in the face of rising sea levels

Structural Equation Modeling in Support of Conservation

Understanding systems sometimes requires approaches that allow for both the discovery of the a system's structure and the estimation of its implications. Structural Equation Modeling - SEM - is one tool scientists use to better understand the complex world in which we live.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Structural Equation Modeling in Support of Conservation

Structural Equation Modeling in Support of Conservation

Understanding systems sometimes requires approaches that allow for both the discovery of the a system's structure and the estimation of its implications. Structural Equation Modeling - SEM - is one tool scientists use to better understand the complex world in which we live.
Learn More
Field observations of extreme sedimentation events

Mechanisms of Coastal Marsh Elevation Regulation

Sediment deposition serves an important role in the long-term maintenance of coastal marshes. USGS investigates the mechanisms of coastal marsh elevation regulation to help predict marsh sediment requirements under various sea level rise scenarios.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Land Management Research Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Mechanisms of Coastal Marsh Elevation Regulation

Mechanisms of Coastal Marsh Elevation Regulation

Sediment deposition serves an important role in the long-term maintenance of coastal marshes. USGS investigates the mechanisms of coastal marsh elevation regulation to help predict marsh sediment requirements under various sea level rise scenarios.
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North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation North American dataset of ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands—Canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation

This dataset includes literature-derived ecological data from tidal saline wetlands across the United States, Canada, and Mexico for the following ecosystem properties: canopy height, aboveground biomass, productivity, soil carbon density, and soil carbon accumulation rates.
By
Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Satellite-derived spectral indices to characterize wildfire impacts on forested sites in Glacier National Park, Montana Satellite-derived spectral indices to characterize wildfire impacts on forested sites in Glacier National Park, Montana

The dataset contains spectral indices values calculated from Landsat imagery, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and delta normalized burn ratio (NBR, deltaNBR). The spectral indices were computed for 1472 forested sites in the Glacier National Park, Montana, over the 1984-2021 period, in areas that were burned or not burned during the Robert Fire of 2003.
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Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States? When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States?

Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. We integrated these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. We evaluated three sea-level rise thresholds for wetland drowning (4, 7, and 10 mm/yr). Our study area...
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Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Estuarine vegetated wetland change scenarios for estuaries in the conterminous United States, 1996–2019 Estuarine vegetated wetland change scenarios for estuaries in the conterminous United States, 1996–2019

This data release contains land cover-derived statistics regarding estuarine vegetated wetland area change within estuary drainage areas along the conterminous U.S. This dataset includes net change in estuarine vegetated wetland area based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Change Assessment Program (C-CAP) 1996 and 2016 land cover data. Net change was...
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Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Mangrove damage along northern Gulf of Mexico from extreme freeze event on February 2021 Mangrove damage along northern Gulf of Mexico from extreme freeze event on February 2021

Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme events at the landscape scale is critical for understanding and responding to climate-driven change but is constrained by limited data availability. Here, we integrated remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify landscape-scale vegetation damage from...
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Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Potential landward migration of coastal wetlands in response to sea-level rise within estuarine drainage areas and coastal states of the conterminous United States Potential landward migration of coastal wetlands in response to sea-level rise within estuarine drainage areas and coastal states of the conterminous United States

We quantified the potential area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and freshwater wetlands due to sea-level rise (SLR) at the estuary scale for 166 estuarine drainage areas and at the state scale for 22 coastal states and District of Columbia. We used 2016 Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) data in combination with the future wetland migration data under the...
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Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Estuarine drainage area boundaries for the conterminous United States Estuarine drainage area boundaries for the conterminous United States

To quantify the potential for landward migration at the estuary level, we developed a geospatial dataset for the conterminous United States (CONUS) that identifies the boundaries for estuarine drainage areas. Nine estuarine drainage areas in south Florida were delineated using data developed by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD 2018). For the rest of CONUS, we used...
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Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Brazoria NWR Prairie Resilience Data Brazoria NWR Prairie Resilience Data

In 1996, 400 tree-centered plots were established by first randomly choosing x- and y- coordinates from an imaginary grid overlaying the study area. Each random point was also randomly assigned a tree-size category from a pre-determined sampling scheme. The scheme was to include 20 trees from each of 5 size categories. Size/height categories were: less than 0.1m, 0.1-1m, 1-2m, 2-3m, and...
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Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Ecosystem Condition Development of a Multimetric Index for Integrated Assessment of Salt Marsh Ecosystem Condition

Data Release for journal publication describing development of a multimetric index for assessing salt marsh condition in northeastern National Parks. This is the first application of an empirical, metric-selection algorithm to metrics from multiple trophic groups (vegetation and nekton). While MMIs derived from nekton or vegetation metrics alone were strongly correlated with human...
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Eastern Ecological Science Center

Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands Linear and nonlinear effects of temperature and precipitation on ecosystem properties in tidal saline wetlands

Macroclimatic drivers, such as temperature and rainfall regimes, greatly influence ecosystem structure and function in tidal saline wetlands. Understanding the ecological influence of macroclimatic drivers is important because it provides a foundation for anticipating the effects of climate change. Tidal saline wetlands include mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats, which occupy...
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Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Vegetation, soil, and landscape data Vegetation, soil, and landscape data

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast spans two major climate gradients and represents an excellent natural laboratory for developing climate-influenced ecological models. In this project, we used these zones of remarkable transition to develop macroclimate-based models for quantifying the regional responses of coastal wetland ecosystems to climate variation. In addition to providing...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge Causal interpretations can be based on mechanistic knowledge

There exists a long-standing disconnect between statistical and mechanistic approaches to the development of causal understanding. Statistical approaches, which have dominated the literature, have focused on the need to obtain perfectly unbiased estimates of causal effects often using either experimental, quasi-experimental or other methods. Mechanistic approaches have instead focused on
Authors
James Grace, Glenn Guntenspergen, Kevin Buffington, Justine Neville, Karen M. Thorne, Michael Osland, Melinda Martinez, Joel Carr, Debra A. Willard
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center

Causal effects verses causal mechanisms: Two traditions with different requirements and contributions towards causal understanding Causal effects verses causal mechanisms: Two traditions with different requirements and contributions towards causal understanding

The scientific aspiration of building causal knowledge has received little explicit discussion in ecology despite its fundamental importance. When methods are described as ‘causal’, emphasis is increasingly placed on statistical techniques for isolating associations so as to quantify causal effects. In contrast, natural scientists have historically approached the pursuit of causal...
Authors
James Grace, Nick Huntington-Klein, E. Schweiger, Melinda Martinez, Michael Osland, Laura C. Feher, Glenn Guntenspergen, Karen M. Thorne
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress

An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the...
Authors
Michael Osland, John B. Bradford, Lauren Toth, Matthew J. Germino, James Grace, Judith Drexler, Camille Stagg, Eric Grossman, Karen M. Thorne, Stephanie Romanach, Davina Passeri, Gregory Noe, Jessica Lacy, Ken Krauss, Kurt P. Kowalski, Glenn Guntenspergen, Neil K. Ganju, Nicholas Enwright, Joel A. Carr, Kristin Byrd, Kevin Buffington
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, California Water Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Western Geographic Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast Nature-based solutions could offset coastal squeeze of tidal wetlands from sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast

In this study, we explored the opportunities for tidal wetland landward migration in response to sea-level rise on the Pacific Coast of the United States. By employing a systematic spatial approach, we quantified the available space for wetland migration with sea-level rise across 61 estuarine drainage areas. Although many of the existing tidal wetlands are small patches, our analyses...
Authors
Karen M. Thorne, Kevin Buffington, Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Glenn Guntenspergen
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC)

An integrative paradigm for building causal knowledge An integrative paradigm for building causal knowledge

A core aspiration of the ecological sciences is to determine how systems work, which implies the challenge of developing a causal understanding. Causal inference has long been approached from a statistical perspective, which can be limited and restrictive for a variety of reasons. Ecologists and other natural scientists have historically pursued mechanistic knowledge as an alternative...
Authors
James Grace
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

A conterminous United States–Wide validation of relative tidal elevation products A conterminous United States–Wide validation of relative tidal elevation products

Recent large-scale spatial products have been developed to assess wetland position in the tidal frame, but nationwide comparisons and validations are missing for these products. Wetland position within the tidal frame is a commonly used characteristic to compare wetlands across biogeomorphic gradients and factors heavily into wetland vulnerability models. We utilize a dataset of 365...
Authors
Justine Neville, Glenn Guntenspergen, James Grace, Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Eastern Ecological Science Center

Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States Rising seas could cross thresholds for initiating coastal wetland drowning within decades across much of the United States

Accelerated sea-level rise is an existential threat to coastal wetlands, but the timing and extent of wetland drowning are debated. Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. Here, we integrate these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across...
Authors
Michael Osland, Bogdan Chivoiu, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Glenn Guntenspergen, Kevin Buffington, Karen M. Thorne, Joel A. Carr, William Sweet, Brady Couvillion
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Observing coastal wetland transitions using national land cover products Observing coastal wetland transitions using national land cover products

Over the coming century, climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to cause widespread change to coastal wetlands. Estuarine vegetated wetlands can adapt to sea-level rise through both vertical development (i.e., biophysical feedbacks and sedimentation) and upslope/horizontal migration. Quantifying changes to estuarine vegetated wetlands over time can help to inform current and...
Authors
Nicholas Enwright, Michael Osland, Karen M. Thorne, Glenn Guntenspergen, James Grace, Gregory Steyer, Nate Herold, Bogdan Chivoiu, Minoo Han
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Gulf of America

Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change Nonlinear patterns of surface elevation change in coastal wetlands: The value of generalized additive models for quantifying rates of change

In the face of accelerating climate change and rising sea levels, quantifying surface elevation change dynamics in coastal wetlands can help to develop a more complete understanding of the implications of sea-level rise on coastal wetland stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach has been widely used to quantify and characterize surface elevation change...
Authors
Laura Feher, Michael Osland, Darren Johnson, James Grace, Glenn Guntenspergen, David R. Stewart, Carlos Coronado-Molina, Fred Sklar
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Perspectives on the scientific legacy of J. Philip Grime Perspectives on the scientific legacy of J. Philip Grime

Perhaps as much as any other scientist in the 20th century, J.P. Grime transformed the study of plant ecology and helped shepherd the field toward international prominence as a nexus of ideas related to global environmental change. Editors at the Journal of Ecology asked a group of senior plant ecologists to comment on Grime's scientific legacy.This commentary piece includes individual...
Authors
Jason Fridley, Xiaojuan Liu, Natalia Perez-Harguindeguy, F. Stuart Chapin III, Mick Crawley, Gerlinde De Deyn, Sandra Diaz, James Grace, Peter Grubb, Susan Harrison, Sandra Lavorel, Zhimin Liu, Simon Pierce, Bernhard Schmid, Carly Stevens, David A. Wardle, Mark Westoby
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Integrating remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify the effects of an extreme freeze event on black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the landscape scale Integrating remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify the effects of an extreme freeze event on black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the landscape scale

Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Quantifying ecosystem responses to extreme events at the landscape scale is critical for understanding and responding to climate-driven change but is constrained by limited data availability. Here, we integrated remote sensing with ground-based observations to quantify landscape-scale vegetation damage from...
Authors
Melinda Martinez, Michael Osland, James Grace, Nicholas Enwright, Camille Stagg, Simen Kaalstad, Gordon Anderson, Anna Armitage, Just Cebrian, Karen Cummins, Richard Day, Donna Devlin, Kenneth H. Dunton, Laura Feher, Alejandro Fierro-Cabo, Elena Flores, Andrew From, A. Hughes, David Kaplan, Amy Langston, Christopher J. Miller, Charles Proffitt, Nathan Reaver, Colt Sanspree, Caitlin Snyder, Andrew Stetter, Kathleen M. Swanson, Jamie E. Thompson, Carlos Zamora-Tovar
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center

Integrated analysis shows how the effects of extreme flooding events propagate through fish communities to impact amphibians Integrated analysis shows how the effects of extreme flooding events propagate through fish communities to impact amphibians

Research Highlight: Davis, C. L., Walls, S. C., Barichivich, W. J., Brown, M. E., & Miller, D. A. (2022). Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13874. Catastrophic events such as floods, hurricanes, winter storms, droughts and wildfires increasingly touch our lives either...
Authors
James Grace
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

Ecological Thresholds, Abiotic Stress, and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework

As climate change accelerates, the risk of sudden, large-scale shifts in ecosystems is growing. A new USGS study examines the mechanisms behind these...

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Biodiversity Critical to Maintaining Healthy Ecosystems

Biodiversity Critical to Maintaining Healthy Ecosystems

Researchers have found clear evidence that biological communities rich in species are substantially healthier and more productive than those depleted...

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