Will global warming produce more frequent and more intense wildfires?
There isn’t a direct relationship between climate change and fire, but researchers have found strong correlations between warm summer temperatures and large fire years, so there is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change.
Hot, dry conditions, however, do not automatically mean fire—something needs to create the spark and actually start the fire. In some parts of the country (like Alaska), most fires are ignited by lightning. In other regions (like California), most fires are ignited by humans.
Climate models tell us that average summer temperatures will continue to increase through this century, but ignition is the wild card. What will happen in the future is a more complicated story because we don’t understand what will happen with convective storms and the lightning.
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Why is climate change happening and what are the causes?
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Wildland Fire Science—Supporting wildland fire and land management
The U.S. Geological Survey's Wildland Fire Science Program produces fundamental information to identify the causes of wildfires, understand the impacts and benefits of both wildfires and prescribed fires, and help prevent and manage larger, catastrophic events. Our fire scientists provide information and develop tools that are widely used by...
Steblein, Paul F.; Miller, Mark P.; Soileau, Suzanna C.
Characterizing 12 years of wildland fire science at the U.S. Geological Survey: Wildland Fire Science Publications, 2006–17
Wildland fire characteristics, such as area burned, number of large fires, burn intensity, and fire season duration, have increased steadily over the past 30 years, resulting in substantial increases in the costs of suppressing fires and managing damages from wildland fire events (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017)....
Steblein, Paul F.; Miller, Mark P.
USGS integrated drought science
Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme...
Ostroff, Andrea C.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Lambert, Patrick M.; Booth, Nathaniel L.; Carter, Shawn L.; Stoker, Jason M.; Focazio, Michael J.
Enhanced canopy fuel mapping by integrating lidar data
BackgroundThe Wildfire Sciences Team at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science Center produces vegetation type, vegetation structure, and fuel products for the United States, primarily through the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) program. LANDFIRE products are used across disciplines...
Peterson, Birgit E.; Nelson, Kurtis J.
Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States
Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species,...
Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime
Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues
IntroductionThis circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing...
Smith, Kathleen S.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; McCafferty, Anne E.; Clark, Roger N.
LANDFIRE
LANDFIRE, also known as the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Program, is a vegetation, fire, and fuel characteristic mapping program managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of the Interior. LANDFIRE represents the first, and only, complete, nationally consistent collection of...
Zahn, Stephen G.
Natural hazards science strategy
The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed...
Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.
Climate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects
Climate change will have significant effects on the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and humans, according to scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that unprecedented rates of climate change will result in increasing average global temperatures; rising sea levels; changing global precipitation patterns, including...
Hofmeister, Erik K.; Moede Rogall, Gail; Wesenberg, Katherine; Abbott, Rachel C.; Work, Thierry M.; Schuler, Krysten; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Winton, James
Why Study Paleoclimate?
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers are at the forefront of paleoclimate research, the study of past climates. With their unique skills and perspective, only geologists have the tools necessary to delve into the distant past (long before instrumental records were collected) in order to better understand global environmental conditions that...
Robinson, Marci; Dowsett, Harry
Carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change
Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas, have caused a substantial increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. This increase in atmospheric CO2 - from about 280 to more than 380 parts per million (ppm) over the last 250 years - is causing measurable global warming. Potential...
Sundquist, Eric; Burruss, Robert; Faulkner, Stephen; Gleason, Robert; Harden, Jennifer; Kharaka, Yousif; Tieszen, Larry; Waldrop, Mark
USGS Fire Science: Fire Danger Monitoring and Forecasting
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has advanced the use of moderate-resolution satellite data in a decision support system for assessing national fire potential. Weekly updated digital images of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), based on data acquired at 1-kilometer (km) resolution (about 0.6 mi), have been used for the past 19...
Eidenshink, Jeff
USGS on Fire: It’s not a matter of “if,” it’s a matter of “more fire science data please!”
Visit our new USGS fire webpage to learn how USGS fire science is making a difference
Increases in Wildfire-Caused Erosion Could Impact Water Supply and Quality in the West
A growing number of wildfire-burned areas throughout the western United States are expected to increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, causing more sediment to be present in downstream rivers and reservoirs, according to a new study by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Point and Click to Track Wildfire Activity in the United States
Keep tabs on wildfire activity via this U.S. Geological Survey website, GeoMAC.
EarthView – Wildfires Scorch Large Swaths Along Oklahoma-Kansas border
This week's EarthView is a scorcher!
GeoMAC Provides Critical Support for Ongoing Western Wildfires
In response to the devastating wildfires that are burning lands across the West, the U.S. Geological Survey has teamed with federal firefighting agencies and private industry to form the Geo-spatial Multi-Agency Coordination group (GeoMAC)
Post-Wildfire Debris Flood: 2016 Fish Fire, Van Tassel Canyon, CA
The June 2016 Fish Fire burned over 12 km^2 in Los Angeles County, California. After the fire, the USGS installed an automated rain-triggered camera and laser stage gage to monitor post-wildfire flooding and debris flow in Van Tassel Canyon near Azusa. This video shows the peak flow triggered by an intense rainstorm on January 20, 2017. The laser stage gage, which is
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Bears at the Lateral West Fire
Black bear and her cub travelling along the edge of the Lateral West Fire.
Smoky Mountain fires on the night of Nov. 28, 2016
In an extreme drought and amid high winds, many fires burned together in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, the town of Gatlinburg and nearby communities to form the deadly fire that became known as Chimney Tops 2. This photo was taken on the night of Nov. 28, 2016, as the fire was spreading rapidly.
A Landsat image showing the damage from the Wallow Fire in Arizona, 20
A Landsat image showing the damage from the Wallow Fire in Arizona, 2011.
Landsat 8 View of Soberanes Wildfire Beginning
Landsat 8's July 29 pass over central California shortly after the outbreak of the fire. Credit: USGS/NASA Landsat Program.
A USGS scientist surveys the Las Conchas fire scar.
Fire effects monitoring after the Funny River Fire, Kenai Peninsula AK
Pre- and post-fire measurements of fire effects help ecologists, fire scientists, and managers determine how the severity of wildfires affects plants, animal habitat, and ecosystem services
USGS and 2007 California Wildfires: The Big Picture
Robert Fisher, USGS Research Biologist talks about the overall impact of fires on the biology of the area.
Wildfire in sagebrush-steppe region
Prescribed fire is one strategy managers employ for multiple reasons, including descreasing fuels to reduce the probability of severe future wildfires and modifying habitat to benefit native plants and animals. USGS scientists are studying the efficacy of these treatments in forested and sagebrush-steppe ecosystems and their effects on streams, soils, wildlife, and
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Joshua trees burning in the Bulldog Fire in Mojave Desert tortoise
Joshua trees burning in the Bulldog Fire in Mojave Desert tortoise habitat of southwestern Utah. These fires result in population losses of tortoises and modify the habitat in ways that takes decades to centuries to recover.