There isn’t a direct relationship between climate change and fire, but researchers have found strong correlations between warm summer temperatures and large fire years, so there is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change.
Hot, dry conditions, however, do not automatically mean fire—something needs to create the spark and actually start the fire. In some parts of the country (like Alaska), most fires are ignited by lightning. In other regions (like California), most fires are ignited by humans.
Climate models tell us that average summer temperatures will continue to increase through this century, but ignition is the wild card. What will happen in the future is a more complicated story because we don’t understand what will happen with convective storms and the lightning.
Related Content
What should I know about wildfires and debris flows?
Wildland fires are inevitable in the western United States. Expansion of human development into forested areas has created a situation where wildfires can adversely affect lives and property, as can the flooding and landslides that occur in the aftermath of the fires. There is a need to develop tools and methods to identify and quantify the potential hazards posed by landslides produced from...
Can major landslides and debris flows happen in all areas of the U.S.?
Landslides can and do occur in every state and territory of the U.S.; however, the type, severity, and frequency of landslide activity varies from place to place, depending on the terrain, geology, and climate. Major storms have caused major or widespread landslides in Washington state, Oregon, California, Colorado, Idaho, Hawaii, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, North Carolina, Puerto...
What is a landslide and what causes one?
A landslide is defined as the movement of a mass of rock, debris, or earth down a slope. Landslides are a type of "mass wasting," which denotes any down-slope movement of soil and rock under the direct influence of gravity. The term "landslide" encompasses five modes of slope movement: falls, topples, slides, spreads, and flows. These are further subdivided by the type of geologic material...
Does the USGS monitor global warming?
Not specifically. Our charge is to understand characteristics of the Earth, especially the Earth's surface, that affect our Nation's land, water, and biological resources. That includes quite a bit of environmental monitoring. Other agencies, especially NOAA and NASA, are specifically funded to monitor global temperature and atmospheric phenomena such as ozone concentrations. The work through...
What is the difference between global warming and climate change?
Although people tend to use these terms interchangeably, global warming is just one aspect of climate change. “Global warming” refers to the rise in global temperatures due mainly to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. “Climate change” refers to the increasing changes in the measures of climate over a long period of time – including precipitation, temperature, and...
What are the long-term effects of climate change?
Scientists have predicted that long-term effects of climate change will include a decrease in sea ice and an increase in permafrost thawing, an increase in heat waves and heavy precipitation, and decreased water resources in semi-arid regions. Below are some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: North America: Decreasing snowpack in the...
Why is climate change happening and what are the causes?
There are many “natural” and “anthropogenic” (human-induced) factors that contribute to climate change. Climate change has always happened on Earth, which is clearly seen in the geological record; it is the rapid rate and the magnitude of climate change occurring now that is of great concern worldwide. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb heat radiation. Human activity has increased...
How can climate change affect natural disasters?
With increasing global surface temperatures the possibility of more droughts and increased intensity of storms will likely occur. As more water vapor is evaporated into the atmosphere it becomes fuel for more powerful storms to develop. More heat in the atmosphere and warmer ocean surface temperatures can lead to increased wind speeds in tropical storms. Rising sea levels expose higher locations...
LANDFIRE
LANDFIRE data and applications
U.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
Characterizing 12 years of wildland fire science at the U.S. Geological Survey: Wildland Fire Science Publications, 2006–17
Wildland Fire Science — Supporting wildland fire and land management
USGS integrated drought science
Enhanced canopy fuel mapping by integrating lidar data
Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States
Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues
Climate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects
Why Study Paleoclimate?
USGS Fire Science: Fire Danger Monitoring and Forecasting
Related Content
- FAQ
What should I know about wildfires and debris flows?
Wildland fires are inevitable in the western United States. Expansion of human development into forested areas has created a situation where wildfires can adversely affect lives and property, as can the flooding and landslides that occur in the aftermath of the fires. There is a need to develop tools and methods to identify and quantify the potential hazards posed by landslides produced from...
Can major landslides and debris flows happen in all areas of the U.S.?
Landslides can and do occur in every state and territory of the U.S.; however, the type, severity, and frequency of landslide activity varies from place to place, depending on the terrain, geology, and climate. Major storms have caused major or widespread landslides in Washington state, Oregon, California, Colorado, Idaho, Hawaii, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, North Carolina, Puerto...
What is a landslide and what causes one?
A landslide is defined as the movement of a mass of rock, debris, or earth down a slope. Landslides are a type of "mass wasting," which denotes any down-slope movement of soil and rock under the direct influence of gravity. The term "landslide" encompasses five modes of slope movement: falls, topples, slides, spreads, and flows. These are further subdivided by the type of geologic material...
Does the USGS monitor global warming?
Not specifically. Our charge is to understand characteristics of the Earth, especially the Earth's surface, that affect our Nation's land, water, and biological resources. That includes quite a bit of environmental monitoring. Other agencies, especially NOAA and NASA, are specifically funded to monitor global temperature and atmospheric phenomena such as ozone concentrations. The work through...
What is the difference between global warming and climate change?
Although people tend to use these terms interchangeably, global warming is just one aspect of climate change. “Global warming” refers to the rise in global temperatures due mainly to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. “Climate change” refers to the increasing changes in the measures of climate over a long period of time – including precipitation, temperature, and...
What are the long-term effects of climate change?
Scientists have predicted that long-term effects of climate change will include a decrease in sea ice and an increase in permafrost thawing, an increase in heat waves and heavy precipitation, and decreased water resources in semi-arid regions. Below are some of the regional impacts of global change forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: North America: Decreasing snowpack in the...
Why is climate change happening and what are the causes?
There are many “natural” and “anthropogenic” (human-induced) factors that contribute to climate change. Climate change has always happened on Earth, which is clearly seen in the geological record; it is the rapid rate and the magnitude of climate change occurring now that is of great concern worldwide. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb heat radiation. Human activity has increased...
How can climate change affect natural disasters?
With increasing global surface temperatures the possibility of more droughts and increased intensity of storms will likely occur. As more water vapor is evaporated into the atmosphere it becomes fuel for more powerful storms to develop. More heat in the atmosphere and warmer ocean surface temperatures can lead to increased wind speeds in tropical storms. Rising sea levels expose higher locations...
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LANDFIRE
Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) is a key national geospatial data source for strategic fire and resource management planning and analysis. LANDFIRE is the first complete, nationally consistent collection of more than 25 geospatial layers, databases, and ecological models at a 30-meter resolution that describe disturbance, vegetation, fire, and fuel characteristics.AuthorsJennifer L. Long, Timothy D. HattenLANDFIRE data and applications
LANDFIRE is a Federal program that provides a suite of spatial datasets indicating areas of disturbance, vegetation and fuels distributions and structure, and historical conditions. The level of detail presented in LANDFIRE’s classifications of disturbance, vegetation, and fuels is unparalleled and can be used in a variety of applications, including (1) modeling wildfire risk and fire behavior, (2AuthorsInga P. La Puma, Timothy D. HattenU.S. Geological Survey wildland fire science strategic plan, 2021–26
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wildland Fire Science Strategic Plan defines critical, core fire science capabilities for understanding fire-related and fire-responsive earth system processes and patterns, and informing management decision making. Developed by USGS fire scientists and executive leadership, and informed by conversations with external stakeholders, the Strategic Plan is aligned wiAuthorsPaul F. Steblein, Rachel A. Loehman, Mark P. Miller, Joseph R. Holomuzki, Suzanna C. Soileau, Matthew L. Brooks, Mia Drane-Maury, Hannah M. Hamilton, Jason W. Kean, Jon E. Keeley, Robert R. Mason,, Alexa McKerrow, James Meldrum, Edmund B. Molder, Sheila F. Murphy, Birgit Peterson, Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Douglas J. Shinneman, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Alison YorkByEcosystems Mission Area, Natural Hazards Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Alaska Science Center, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center (WERC), Wildland Fire ScienceCharacterizing 12 years of wildland fire science at the U.S. Geological Survey: Wildland Fire Science Publications, 2006–17
Wildland fire characteristics, such as area burned, number of large fires, burn intensity, and fire season duration, have increased steadily over the past 30 years, resulting in substantial increases in the costs of suppressing fires and managing damages from wildland fire events (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017). Wildland fire management could benefit from sound deAuthorsPaul F. Steblein, Mark P. MillerWildland Fire Science — Supporting wildland fire and land management
The U.S. Geological Survey's Wildland Fire Science Program produces fundamental information to identify the causes of wildfires, understand the impacts and benefits of both wildfires and prescribed fires, and help prevent and manage larger, catastrophic events. Our fire scientists provide information and develop tools that are widely used by stakeholders to make decisions before, during, and afterAuthorsPaul F. Steblein, Mark P. Miller, Suzanna C. SoileauUSGS integrated drought science
Project Need and OverviewDrought poses a serious threat to the resilience of human communities and ecosystems in the United States (Easterling and others, 2000). Over the past several years, many regions have experienced extreme drought conditions, fueled by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation and exceptionally warm temperatures. Extreme drought has far-reaching impacts on water supplies, eAuthorsAndrea C. Ostroff, Clint C. Muhlfeld, Patrick M. Lambert, Nathaniel L. Booth, Shawn L. Carter, Jason M. Stoker, Michael J. FocazioEnhanced canopy fuel mapping by integrating lidar data
BackgroundThe Wildfire Sciences Team at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earth Resources Observation and Science Center produces vegetation type, vegetation structure, and fuel products for the United States, primarily through the Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) program. LANDFIRE products are used across disciplines for a variety of applications. The LANDFIRE data retaAuthorsBirgit E. Peterson, Kurtis J. NelsonAssessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States
Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional cAuthorsJennifer Costanza, Scott Beck, Milo Pyne, Adam Terando, Matthew J. Rubino, Rickie White, Jaime CollazoDeveloping integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues
IntroductionThis circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral RClimate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects
Climate change will have significant effects on the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and humans, according to scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that unprecedented rates of climate change will result in increasing average global temperatures; rising sea levels; changing global precipitation patterns, including increasing amounts and variability; and increasingAuthorsErik K. Hofmeister, Gail Moede Rogall, Katherine Wesenberg, Rachel C. Abbott, Thierry M. Work, Krysten Schuler, Jonathan M. Sleeman, James WintonWhy Study Paleoclimate?
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers are at the forefront of paleoclimate research, the study of past climates. With their unique skills and perspective, only geologists have the tools necessary to delve into the distant past (long before instrumental records were collected) in order to better understand global environmental conditions that were very different from today's conditions. PaleoclAuthorsMarci Robinson, Harry DowsettUSGS Fire Science: Fire Danger Monitoring and Forecasting
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has advanced the use of moderate-resolution satellite data in a decision support system for assessing national fire potential. Weekly updated digital images of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), based on data acquired at 1-kilometer (km) resolution (about 0.6 mi), have been used for the past 19 years as a means to assess live vegetation conditionsAuthorsJeff Eidenshink - News