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Publications

Listed here are publications, reports and articles by the Land Change Science Program in the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area.

Filter Total Items: 1145

Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States Changing climate drives future streamflow declines and challenges in meeting water demand across the southwestern United States

Society and the environment in the arid southwestern United States depend on reliable water availability, yet current water use outpaces supply. Water demand is projected to grow in the future and climate change is expected to reduce supply. To adapt, water managers need robust estimates of future regional water supply to support management decisions. To address this need, we estimate...
Authors
Olivia Miller, Annie Putman, Jay Alder, Matthew P. Miller, Daniel Jones, Daniel Wise

Native American fire management at an ancient wildland–urban interface in the Southwest United States Native American fire management at an ancient wildland–urban interface in the Southwest United States

The intersection of expanding human development and wildland landscapes—the “wildland–urban interface” or WUI—is one of the most vexing contexts for fire management because it involves complex interacting systems of people and nature. Here, we document the dynamism and stability of an ancient WUI that was apparently sustainable for more than 500 y. We combine ethnography, archaeology...
Authors
Christopher Roos, Thomas Swetnam, T. Ferguson, Matthew Liebmann, Rachel Loehman, John Welch, Ellis Margolis, Christopher Guiterman, William Hockaday, Michael Aiuvalasit, Jenna Battillo, Joshua Farella, Christopher Kiahtipes

Does geomorphology determine vulnerability of mangrove coasts to sea-level rise? Does geomorphology determine vulnerability of mangrove coasts to sea-level rise?

The greatest climate-based threat to coastlines worldwide is sea-level rise. We tested the hypothesis that tropical coasts fringed by mangroves and receiving high inputs of terrigenous sediment are less vulnerable to sea-level rise than biogenic systems dependent upon peat formation for vertical land development. An analysis of published data spanning a range of geomorphic settings...
Authors
Karen L. McKee, Ken Krauss, Donald Cahoon

Valleys of fire: Historical fire regimes of forest-grassland ecotones across the montane landscape of the Valles Caldera National Preserve, New Mexico, USA Valleys of fire: Historical fire regimes of forest-grassland ecotones across the montane landscape of the Valles Caldera National Preserve, New Mexico, USA

Context Montane grasslands and forest-grassland ecotones are unique and dynamic components of many landscapes, but the processes that regulate their dynamics are difficult to observe over ecologically relevant time spans.Objectives We aimed to demonstrate the efficacy of using grassland-forest ecotone trees to reconstruct spatial and temporal properties of the historical fire regime in a...
Authors
J. Dewar, Donald Falk, T. Swetnam, C. Baisan, Craig Allen, R. Parmenter, Ellis Margolis

USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources USGS permafrost research determines the risks of permafrost thaw to biologic and hydrologic resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with university, Federal, Tribal, and independent partners, conducts fundamental research on the distribution, vulnerability, and importance of permafrost in arctic and boreal ecosystems. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers use USGS data to help make decisions for development, wildlife habitat, and other needs. Native villages...
Authors
Mark Waldrop, Lesleigh Anderson, Mark Dornblaser, Li Erikson, Ann Gibbs, Nicole Herman-Mercer, Stephanie R. James, Miriam Jones, Joshua Koch, Mary-Cathrine Leewis, Kristen Manies, Burke Minsley, Neal Pastick, Vijay Patil, Frank Urban, Michelle Walvoord, Kimberly Wickland, Christian Zimmerman

Wildfires: Identification of a new suite of aromatic polycarboxylic acids in ash and surface water Wildfires: Identification of a new suite of aromatic polycarboxylic acids in ash and surface water

Ash and surface water samples collected after wildfires in four different geographical locations (California, Colorado, Kansas and Alberta) were analyzed. The ash samples were leached with deionized water, and leachates were concentrated by solid phase extraction and analyzed by liquid chromatography/time-of-flight mass spectrometry. In addition, three surface water samples and a...
Authors
Imma Ferrer, E. Michael Thurman, Jerry Zweigenbaum, Sheila Murphy, Jackson Webster, Fernando Rosario-Ortiz

Seed production patterns of surviving Sierra Nevada conifers show minimal change following drought Seed production patterns of surviving Sierra Nevada conifers show minimal change following drought

Reproduction is a key component of ecological resilience in forest ecosystems, so understanding how seed production is influenced by extreme drought is key to understanding forest recovery trajectories. If trees respond to mortality-inducing drought by preferentially allocating resources for reproduction, the recovery of the stand to pre-drought conditions may be enhanced accordingly. We...
Authors
Micah Wright, Phillip J. van Mantgem, Nathan Stephenson, Adrian Das, Jon Keeley

Linking modern pollen accumulation rates to biomass: Quantitative vegetation reconstruction in the western Klamath Mountains, NW California, USA Linking modern pollen accumulation rates to biomass: Quantitative vegetation reconstruction in the western Klamath Mountains, NW California, USA

Quantitative reconstructions of vegetation abundance from sediment-derived pollen systems provide unique insights into past ecological conditions. Recently, the use of pollen accumulation rates (PAR, grains cm−2 year−1) has shown promise as a bioproxy for plant abundance. However, successfully reconstructing region-specific vegetation dynamics using PAR requires that accurate assessments...
Authors
Clarke Knight, Mark Baskaran, M. Bunting, Marie Champagne, Matthew Potts, David Wahl, James Wanket, John Battles

Upland burning and grazing as strategies to offset climate-change effects on wetlands Upland burning and grazing as strategies to offset climate-change effects on wetlands

Wetland ecosystems perform a multitude of services valued by society and provide critical habitat for migratory birds and other wildlife. Despite their importance, wetlands have been lost to different local, regional, and global drivers. Remaining wetlands are extremely sensitive to changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Management of grassland areas in wetland catchments may be...
Authors
Owen McKenna, David Renton, David Mushet, Edward DeKeyser

Lake Andrei: A pliocene pluvial lake in Eureka Valley, Eastern California Lake Andrei: A pliocene pluvial lake in Eureka Valley, Eastern California

We used geologic mapping, tephrochronology and 40Ar/39Ar dating to describe evidence of a ca. 3.5 Ma pluvial lake in Eureka Valley, eastern California, that we informally name herein Lake Andrei. We identified six different tuffs in the Eureka Valley drainage basin including two previously undescribed tuffs: the 3.509 ± 0.009 Ma tuff of Hanging Rock Canyon and the 3.506 ± 0.010 Ma tuff...
Authors
Jeffrey Knott, Elmira Wan, Alan Deino, Mitch Casteel, Marith Reheis, Fred Phillips, Laura Walkup, Kyle McCarty, David Manoukian, Ernest Nunez

Atmospheric processing of iron-bearing mineral dust aerosol and its effect on growth of a marine diatom, Cyclotella meneghiniana Atmospheric processing of iron-bearing mineral dust aerosol and its effect on growth of a marine diatom, Cyclotella meneghiniana

Iron (Fe) is a growth-limiting micronutrient for phytoplankton in major areas of oceans and deposited wind-blown desert dust is a primary Fe source to these regions. Simulated atmospheric processing of four mineral dust proxies and two natural dust samples followed by subsequent growth studies of the marine planktic diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana in artificial sea-water (ASW)...
Authors
Eshani Hettiarachchi, Sergei Ivanov, Thomas Kieft, Harland Goldstein, Bruce Moskowitz, Richard Reynolds, Gayan Rubasinghege

Forest management under megadrought: Urgent actions needed at finer-scale and higher intensity Forest management under megadrought: Urgent actions needed at finer-scale and higher intensity

Drought and warming increasingly are causing widespread tree die-offs and extreme wildfires. Forest managers are struggling to improve anticipatory forest management practices given more frequent, extensive, and severe wildfire and tree die-off events triggered by “hotter drought”—drought under warmer than historical conditions. Of even greater concern is the increasing probability of...
Authors
Jason Field, David Breshears, John B. Bradford, Darin Law, Xiaohui Feng, Craig Allen
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