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Jake F. Weltzin (Former Employee)

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Sonoran desert spring wildflower display.

Ecological Forecasting Workshop

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending changes in ecosystem dynamics (that is, the approaching near-term changes in ecosystems). Managers may use the...
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John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
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Ecological Forecasting Workshop

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending changes in ecosystem dynamics (that is, the approaching near-term changes in ecosystems). Managers may use the information in f
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno Forecast” ma
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A huge canyon surrounded by deep-set cliffs opens to reveal a sunny gorge and part of the Colorado River.

Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have helped grow
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Developing APIs to support enterprise level monitoring using existing tools

In this age of rapidly developing technology, scientific information is constantly being gathered across large spatial scales. Yet, our ability to coordinate large-scale monitoring efforts depends on development of tools that leverage and integrate multiple sources of data. North American bats are experiencing unparalleled population declines. The North American Bat Monitoring Program...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Developing APIs to support enterprise level monitoring using existing tools

In this age of rapidly developing technology, scientific information is constantly being gathered across large spatial scales. Yet, our ability to coordinate large-scale monitoring efforts depends on development of tools that leverage and integrate multiple sources of data. North American bats are experiencing unparalleled population declines. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), a
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Integration of Phenological Forecast Maps for Assessment of Biodiversity: An Enterprise Workflow

Recent open data policies of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which were fully enforceable on October 1, 2016, require that federally funded information products (publications, etc.) be made freely available to the public, and that the underlying data on which the conclusions are based must be released. A key and relevant...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Integration of Phenological Forecast Maps for Assessment of Biodiversity: An Enterprise Workflow

Recent open data policies of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which were fully enforceable on October 1, 2016, require that federally funded information products (publications, etc.) be made freely available to the public, and that the underlying data on which the conclusions are based must be released. A key and relevant aspect of these
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Image: Water on the Prairie

Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) seek to enhance scientific understanding of how climate trends and variability are linked to phenology across spatial scales, with the ultimate goal of being able to understand and predict climate impacts on natural resources. A key step towards achieving this long-term goal is connecting...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) seek to enhance scientific understanding of how climate trends and variability are linked to phenology across spatial scales, with the ultimate goal of being able to understand and predict climate impacts on natural resources. A key step towards achieving this long-term goal is connecting local obser
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Geocaching Natural Features - Applying Game Mechanics to Citizen Science Data Collection

ScienceCache is a scientific geocaching mobile application framework that targets two user groups for citizen science data collection: youth and geocachers. By melding training and games into the hunt for place-based data collection sites and incorporating photo uploads as data and authentication, new volunteers can collaborate in robust data collection. Scientists build a project on the...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Geocaching Natural Features - Applying Game Mechanics to Citizen Science Data Collection

ScienceCache is a scientific geocaching mobile application framework that targets two user groups for citizen science data collection: youth and geocachers. By melding training and games into the hunt for place-based data collection sites and incorporating photo uploads as data and authentication, new volunteers can collaborate in robust data collection. Scientists build a project on the administr
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delta waters with a significant amount of floating vegetation

Webinar: The USA National Phenology Network: Informing Science, Conservation and Resource Management

View this webinar to learn more about the USA National Phenology Network.
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Webinar: The USA National Phenology Network: Informing Science, Conservation and Resource Management

View this webinar to learn more about the USA National Phenology Network.
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The NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge

The 21st century continues to be characterized by major changes to the environment and the ecosystem services upon which society depends. Anticipating and responding to these changes requires that scientists explicitly forecast future conditions in real time (Dietze et al. 2018). Ecological forecasting, like weather and epidemiological forecasting, involves integrating data and models to...
Authors
R. Quinn Thomas, Carl Boettiger, Cayelan C. Carey, Michael C. Dietze, Leah R. Johnson, Melissa A. Kenney, Jason S. McLachlan, Jody A. Peters, Eric R. Sokol, Jake Weltzin, Alyssa Willson, Whitney Woelmer
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Ecosystems Mission Area

PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data

Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections...
Authors
Jeffrey T. Morisette, Katharyn A Duffy, Jake Weltzin, Dawn M Browning, Lee R Marsh, Aaron M. Friesz, Luke J Zachmann, Kyle Enns, Vincent A. Landau, Katharine L. Gerst, Theresa Crimmins, Katherine K. Jones, Tony Chang, Brian W. Miller, Tom Maiersperger, Andrew D. Richardson
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Fort Collins Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey landscape science strategy 2020–2030

Across our Nation, multiple Federal, State, Tribal, and local governments are working with stakeholders and landowners to restore, conserve, and manage lands and resources to benefit fish, wildlife, and people. One of the largest Federal efforts is led by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), with multiple DOI agencies working to conserve and manage public lands, resources, and...
Authors
Karen E. Jenni, Sarah K. Carter, Nicholas G. Aumen, Zachary H. Bowen, John Bradford, Michael A. Chotkowski, Leslie Hsu, Peter S. Murdoch, Scott W. Phillips, Kevin L. Pope, Rudy Schuster, Melanie J. Steinkamp, Jake Weltzin, George Z. Xian
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Cooperative Research Units, Science and Decisions Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Fort Collins Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center

Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change

Evidence-based responses to climate change by society require operational and sustained information including biophysical indicator systems that provide up-to-date measures of trends and patterns against historical baselines. Two key components linking anthropogenic climate change to impacts on socio-ecological systems are the periodic inter- and intra-annual variations in physical...
Authors
Jake Weltzin, Julio L. Betancourt, Benjamin I. Cook, Theresa Crimmins, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, MD Gerst, JE Gross, GM Henebry, Rebecca A. Hufft, MA Kenney, John S. Kimball, Bradley C. Reed, Steven W. Running
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, Species Management Research Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the...
Authors
John Bradford, Jake Weltzin, Molly L. McCormick, Jill Baron, Zachary H. Bowen, R. Sky Bristol, Daren M. Carlisle, Theresa Crimmins, Paul C. Cross, Joe DeVivo, Mike Dietze, Mary Freeman, Jason Goldberg, Mevin Hooten, Leslie Hsu, Karen Jenni, Jennifer L. Keisman, Jonathan Kennen, Kathy Lee, David P. Lesmes, Keith Loftin, Brian W. Miller, Peter S. Murdoch, Jana Newman, Karen L. Prentice, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jordan S. Read, Jennifer Sieracki, Helen Sofaer, Steve Thur, Gordon Toevs, Francisco Werner, C. LeAnn White, Timothy White, Mark T. Wiltermuth
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Contaminant Biology, Environmental Health Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Kansas Water Science Center, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, New Jersey Water Science Center, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center

Community for data integration 2018 funded project report

The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 10 projects funded in fiscal year 2018, outlining their goals, activities, and accomplishments.
Authors
Leslie Hsu, Caitlin M. Andrews, John Bradford, Daniel D. Buscombe, Katherine J. Chase, Wesley M. Daniel, Jeanne M. Jones, Pam Fuller, Benjamin B. Mirus, Matthew E. Neilson, Hans W. Vraga, Jessica J. Walker, Dennis H. Walworth, Jonathan Warrick, Jake Weltzin, Daniel J. Wieferich, Nathan J. Wood
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Community for Data Integration (CDI), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Science Data Management

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and...
Authors
Sarah R. Weiskopf, Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Lisa G. Crozier, Sarah Gaichas, Roger Griffis, Jessica E. Halofsky, Kimberly J. W. Hyde, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Roldan C. Muñoz, Andrew J. Pershing, David L. Peterson, Rajendra Poudel, Michelle D Staudinger, Ariana Eileen Sutton-Grier, Laura M. Thompson, James M. Vose, Jake Weltzin, Kyle Powys Whyte
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers

Bridging the research-management gap: Landscape ecology in practice on public lands in the western United States

The field of landscape ecology has grown and matured in recent decades, but incorporating landscape science into land management decisions remains challenging. Many lands in the western United States are federally owned and managed for multiple uses, including recreation, conservation, and energy development. We argue for stronger integration of landscape science into the management of...
Authors
Sarah K. Carter, David Pilliod, Travis S. Haby, Karen L. Prentice, Cameron L. Aldridge, Patrick J. Anderson, Zachary H. Bowen, John Bradford, Samuel A. Cushman, Joseph C. DeVivo, Michael Duniway, Ryan S. Hathaway, Lisa Nelson, Courtney A. Schultz, Rudy Schuster, E. Jamie Trammell, Jake Weltzin
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Land Management Research Program, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center

Short-term forecasts of insect phenology inform pest management

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of ‘Pheno Forecast’...
Authors
Theresa Crimmins, Katharine L. Gerst, Diego Huerta, R. Lee Marsh, Erin E. Posthumus, Alyssa H. Rosemartin, Jeff R. Switzer, Jake Weltzin, Len Coop, Nicholas Dietschler, Daniel A. Herms, Samita Limbu, R. Talbot Trotter III, Mark Whitmore
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Species Management Research Program, Community for Data Integration (CDI)

Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology

The sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological...
Authors
Sarah Elmendorf, Theresa Crimmins, Katharine L. Gerst, Jake Weltzin
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Species Management Research Program

2018 USA National Phenology Annual Report

This report provides a very high-level summary of some of the USA-NPN’s accomplishments over the past year. The purpose is to share with USA-NPN funders, partners, and the general public the value of the organization.
Authors
Jake Weltzin, Theresa Crimmins
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Species Management Research Program

Pheno forecasts predict seasonal activity of pest and invasive species to support decision making

The USA National Phenology Network’s Pheno Forecast maps indicate the status of insect pest or invasive plant life cycle stages in real time across the contiguous United States. This information can guide when to monitor or to undertake management activities. These maps, available at 2.5 km spatial resolution, are updated daily and are available six days into the future. Pheno Forecast...
Authors
Theresa Crimmins, Katharine L. Gerst, Erin E. Posthumus, Alyssa H. Rosemartin, Jake Weltzin
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program

Non-USGS Publications**

Resco de Dios, V., J.F. Weltzin, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman and D.G. Williams. 2014. Transitions from grassland to savanna under drought via passive facilitation by grasses. Journal of Vegetation Science 25:937–946. DOI: 10.1111/jvs.12164
Resco de Dios, V., J.F. Weltzin, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman, and D.G. Williams. 2012. Windows of opportunity for Prosopis velutina seedling establishment and encroachment in a semiarid grassland. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 14:275-282. DOI: 10.1016/j.ppees.2012.03.002
Souza, L. J.F. Weltzin, and N.J. Sanders. 2011. Differential effects of two dominant plant species on community structure and invasibility in an old-field ecosystem. Journal of Plant Ecology 4:123-131. DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtq027
Souza, L., W.A. Bunn, J.F. Weltzin, and N.J. Sanders. 2011. Similar biotic factors affect early establishment and abundance of an invasive plant species across spatial scales. Biological Invasions 13:255-267. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-010-9805-9
Kardol, P., C.E. Campany, L. Souza, R.J. Norby, J.F. Weltzin and A.T. Classen. 2010. Climate change effects on plant biomass alter dominance patterns and community evenness in an experimental old-field ecosystem. Global Change Biology 16:2676–2687. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02162.x
Souza, L., R.T. Belote, P. Kardol, J.F. Weltzin and R.J. Norby. 2010. CO2 enrichment accelerates successional development of an understory plant community. Journal of Plant Ecology 3:33-39. DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtp032
Classen, A.T., R.J. Norby, C.E. Campany, K.E. Sides, and J.F. Weltzin. 2010. Climate change alters seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem. PLoS ONE 5(10): e13476. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013476
Engel, E.C., J.F. Weltzin, R.J. Norby, and A.T. Classen. 2009. Responses of an old-field plant community to interacting factors of elevated [CO2], warming, and soil moisture. Journal of Plant Ecology 2:1-11. DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtn026
Resco de Dios, V., B.E. Ewers, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2009. Drought-induced hydraulic limitations constrain leaf gas exchange recovery after precipitation pulses in the C3 woody legume, Prosopis velutina. New Phytologist 181: 672–682
Bridgham, S.D., J. Pastor, B. Dewey, J.F. Weltzin, and K. Updegraff. 2008. Rapid carbon response of peatlands to climate change. Ecology 89:3041-3048. DOI: 10.1890/08-0279.1
Cable, J.M., K. Ogle, D.G. Williams, J.F. Weltzin and T.E. Huxman. 2008. Soil texture drives responses of soil respiration to precipitation pulses in the Sonoran desert: implications for climate change. Ecosystems 11:961-979. DOI: 10.1007/s10021-008-9172-x
White, J. R., R. D. Shannon, S.D. Bridgham, J. F. Weltzin, and J. Pastor. 2008. Effects of soil warming and drying on methane cycling in a northern peatland mesocosm study. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: G00A06. DOI: 10.1029/2007JG000609
McPherson, G.R. and J.F. Weltzin. 2008. Implications of peak oil for industrialized societies. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society 28:187-191. DOI: 10.1177/0270467608316098
Chen, J.Q., S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, A. Noormets, J. Keller, and J.F. Weltzin. 2008. Temperature responses to infrared-loading and water table manipulations in peatland mesocosms. Journal of Integrative Plant Biology 50:1484-1496. DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7909.2008.00757.x
Resco de Dios, V., D.D. Ignace, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2008. Chlorophyll fluorescence, predawn water potential and photosynthesis in precipitation pulse-driven ecosystems – implications for ecological studies. Functional Ecology 22:479-483. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2435.2008.01396.x
Dermody, O, J.F. Weltzin, E.C. Engel, P. Allen, and R.J. Norby. 2008. How do elevated [CO2], warming, and reduced precipitation interact to affect soil moisture and LAI in an old field ecosystem? Plant and Soil 295:217- 227. DOI: 10.1007/s11104-007-9443-x
Engel, E.C. and J.F. Weltzin. 2008. Can community composition be predicted from pairwise species interactions? Plant Ecology 195:77-85. DOI: 10.1007/s11258-007-9300-2
Wan, S., R.J. Norby, J. Ledford, and J.F. Weltzin. 2007. Responses of soil respiration to elevated CO2, air warming, and soil water availability in a model old-field grassland. Global Change Biology 13:2411–2424. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01433.x
Perkins, T.A., W.R. Holmes, and J.F. Weltzin. 2007. Multi-species interactions in competitive hierarchies: New methods and empirical test. Journal of Vegetation Science 18:685-692. Runner-up, 2007 Editors’ Award; J. Veg. Sci. (2008) 19:1-2. DOI: 10.3170/2008-8-18468
Sanders, N.J., J.F. Weltzin, G.M. Crutsinger, M.C. Fitzpatrick, M.A. Nuñez, C.M. Oswalt, and K.E. Lane. 2007. Insects mediate the effects of propagule supply and resource availability on a plant invasion. Ecology 88:2383-2391. DOI: 10.1890/06-1449.1
Fortner, A.M. and J.F. Weltzin. 2007. Competitive hierarchy for four common old-field plant species depends on resource identity and availability. Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society 134:166-176. DOI: 10.3159/1095-5674(2007)134[166:CHFFCO]2.0.CO;2
Ignace, D.D., T.E. Huxman, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2007. Leaf gas exchange and water status responses of a native and non-native grass to precipitation across contrasting soil surfaces in the Sonoran Desert. Oecologia. DOI: 10.1007/s00442-007-0670-x
Fitzpatrick, M.C., J.F. Weltzin, N.J. Sanders, and R.R. Dunn. 2007. The biogeography of prediction error: Why does the introduced range of the fire ant over predict its native range? Global Ecology and Biogeography 16:24-33. DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-822x.2006.00258.x
Belote, R.T. and J.F. Weltzin. 2006. Interactions between two co-dominant, invasive plants in the understory of a temperate deciduous forest. Biological Invasions 8:1629-1641. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-005-3932-8
Potts, D.L., T.E. Huxman, J.M. Cable, N.B. English, D.D. Ignace, J.A. Eilts, M.J. Mason, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2006. Antecedent moisture and seasonal precipitation influence response of canopy scale carbon and water exchange to rainfall pulses in semi arid grassland. New Phytologist. DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2006.01732.x
Weltzin, J.F., R. T. Belote, L.T. Williams, J.K. Keller, and E.C. Engel. 2006. Authorship in ecology: attribution, accountability, and responsibility. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 4:435-441. DOI: 10.1890/1540-9295(2006)4[435:AIEAAA]2.0.CO;2 [Reply to comments: Weltzin, J.F., R. T. Belote, L.T. Williams, J.K. Keller, and E.C. Engel. 2007. Ensuring that “authors” write - the authors reply. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5:11].
Heisler, J.L. and J.F. Weltzin. 2006. Variability matters: towards a perspective on the influence of precipitation on terrestrial ecosystems. New Phytologist 172:189-192. DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2006.01876.x
Potts, D.L., T.E. Huxman, B.J. Enquist, J.F. Weltzin, and D.G. Williams. 2006. Resilience and resistance of ecosystem functional response to a precipitation pulse in a semi arid grassland. Journal of Ecology 94:23-30. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365 2745.2005.01060.x.
English, N.B., J.F. Weltzin, A. Fravolini, L.M. Thomas and D.G. Williams. 2005. The influence of soil texture and vegetation on soil moisture under rainout shelters in a semi-desert grassland. Journal of Arid Environments 63:324-343. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.013
Yepez, E.A., T.E. Huxman, D.D. Ignace, N.B. English, J.F. Weltzin, A.E. Castellanos, and D.G. Williams. 2005. Dynamics of transpiration and evaporation following a moisture pulse in semiarid grassland: a chamber based isotope method for partitioning flux components. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 132:359-376. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.09.006
Cole, P.G. and J.F. Weltzin. 2005. Light limitation creates patchy distribution of a non-native grass in eastern deciduous forests. Biological Invasions 7:477-488.
Weltzin1, J.F., J.K. Keller1, S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, P.B. Allen, and J. Chen. 2005. Litter as a control on fen plant community composition and production. Oikos 110:537-546. 1Authors contributed equally.
Fitzpatrick, M.C. and J.F. Weltzin. 2005. Ecological niche models and the geography of biological invasions: a review and a novel application. Pages 45-60 in Inderjit, editor. Ecological and Agricultural Aspects of Invasive Plants. Birkhauser Verlag/Switzerland.
Sanders, N.J., R.T. Belote and J.F. Weltzin. 2004. Multi trophic effects of elevated CO2 on understory plant and arthropod communities. Environmental Entomology 33:1609-1616.
Noormets, A., J. Chen, S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, J.F. Weltzin, B. Dewey, and J. LeMoine. 2004. The effects of infrared loading and water table on soil energy fluxes in northern peatlands. Ecosystems 7:573-582.
Chesson, P., R.L.E. Gebauer, S. Schwinning, N. Huntly, K. Wiegand, M.S.K. Ernest, A. Sher, A. Novoplansky, and J.F. Weltzin. 2004. Resource pulses, species interactions, and diversity maintenance in arid and semi arid environments. Oecologia 141:236-253.
Cole, P.G. and J.F. Weltzin. 2004. Environmental correlates of the distribution and abundance of Microstegium vimineum in East Tennessee, USA. Southeastern Naturalist 3:545-562.
Huxman1, T.E., M.D. Smith1, P.A. Fay, A.K. Knapp, M.R. Shaw, M.E. Loik, S.D. Smith, D.T. Tissue, J.C. Zak, J.F. Weltzin, W.T. Pockman, O.E. Sala, B. Haddad, J. Harte, G.W. Koch, S. Schwinning, E.E. Small, and D.G. Williams. 1Authors contributed equally. 2004. Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency. Nature 429:651-654.
Belote, R.T., J.F. Weltzin, and R.J. Norby. 2004. Response of an understory plant community to elevated [CO2] depends on differential responses of dominant invasive species and is mediated by soil water availability. New Phytologist 161:827-835.
Huxman, T.E., J.M. Cable, D. D. Ignace, J.A. Eilts, N.B. English, J.F. Weltzin, and D.G. Williams. 2004. Response of net ecosystem gas exchange to a simulated precipitation pulse in a semi-arid grassland: the role of native versus non-native grasses and soil texture. Oecologia 141:295 305.
English, N.B., D.G. Williams, and J.F. Weltzin. 2003. Soil temperature and moisture dynamics after experimental irrigation on two contrasting soils on the Santa Rita Experimental Range: implications for mesquite establishment. Pages 188-192 in McClaran, M.P., P.F. Ffolliott, and C.B. Edminster, tech coords. Santa Rita Experimental Range: 100 Years (1903 2003) of Accomplishments and Contributions. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-30.
Weltzin, J.F., M.E. Loik, S. Schwinning, D.G. Williams, P. Fay, B. Haddad, J. Harte, T.E. Huxman, A.K. Knapp, G. Lin, W.T. Pockman, M.R. Shaw, E. Small, M.D. Smith, S.D. Smith, D.T. Tissue, and J.C. Zak. 2003. Assessing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to potential changes in precipitation. BioScience 53:941-952.
Weltzin, J.F., N.Z. Muth, B. VonHolle, and P.G. Cole. 2003. Genetic diversity and invasibility: a test using a model system with a novel experimental design. Oikos 103:505-518.
Price, C.A. and J.F. Weltzin. 2003. Managing non-native plant populations through intensive plant community restoration in Cades Cove, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. Restoration Ecology 11:351-358.
Drake, S.J., J.F. Weltzin, and P.D. Parr. 2003. Assessment of non-native invasive plants on the National Environmental Research Park at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Castanea 68:15-30.
Weltzin, J.F. and P.B. Allen. 2003. Tree seedling recruitment in temperate deciduous forest: interactive effects of soil moisture, light, and slope position. Pages 217 - 226 in Hanson, P.J. and S.D. Wullschleger, eds. North American temperate deciduous forest responses to changing precipitation regimes. Ecological Studies, Volume 166. Springer Verlag, New York.
Weltzin, J.F., R.T. Belote, and N.J. Sanders. 2003. Biological invaders in a greenhouse world: will elevated CO2 fuel plant invasions? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:146-153.
Weltzin, J.F., S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, J. Chen, and C. Harth. 2003. Potential effects of warming and drying on peatland plant community composition. Global Change Biology 9:141-151.
Weltzin, J.F. and D.T. Tissue. 2003. Resource pulses in arid environments - patterns of rain, patterns of life. New Phytologist 157:171-173.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2003. Assessing response of terrestrial populations, communities, and ecosystems to changes in precipitation regimes: progress to date and future directions. Pages 180-188 in Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson, eds. Changing Precipitation Regimes and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A North American Perspective. University of Arizona Press, Tucson.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2003. Predicting the response of terrestrial ecosystems to potential changes in precipitation regimes. Pages 3-8 in Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson, eds. Changing Precipitation Regimes and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A North American Perspective. University of Arizona Press, Tucson
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2003. Response of southwestern oak savannas to potential future precipitation regimes. Pages 127-146 in Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson, eds. Changing Precipitation Regimes and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A North American Perspective. University of
Arizona Press, Tucson
Pastor, J., B. Peckman, S.D. Bridgham, J.F. Weltzin, and J. Chen. 2002. Plant community dynamics, nutrient cycling, and alternative stable equilibria in peatlands. American Naturalist 160:553-568.
R.J. Norby, P.J. Hanson, E.G. O'Neill, T.J. Tschaplinski, J.F. Weltzin, R.T. Hansen, W. Cheng, S.D. Wullschleger, C.A. Gunderson, N.T. Edwards, and D.W. Johnson. 2002. Net primary productivity of a CO2-enriched deciduous forest and the implications for carbon storage. Ecological Applications 12:1261-1266.
Weltzin, J.F., K.A. Snyder, and D.G. Williams. 2001. Experimental manipulations of precipitation seasonality: effects on oak (Quercus) seedling demography and physiology. Western North American Naturalist 61:463-472.
Weltzin, J.F., C. Harth, S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, and M. Vonderharr. 2001. Production and microtopography of bog bryophytes: response to warming and water-table manipulations. Oecologia 128:557-565.
McPherson, G.R. and J.F. Weltzin. 2000. Disturbance and climate change in United States/Mexico borderland plant communities: A state-of-the-knowledge review. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-50. 20 pp
Hanson, P.J. and J.F. Weltzin. 2000. Drought and climate change as vectors of disturbance in temperate forest communities. Science of the Total Environment 262:205-220
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 1999. Facilitation of conspecific seedling recruitment and shifts in temperate savanna ecotones. Ecological Monographs 69:513-534
Weltzin, J.F., J. Pastor, C. Harth, S.D. Bridgham, K. Updegraff, and C.T. Chapin. 2000. Response of bog and fen plant communities to warming and water-table manipulations. Ecology 81:3464-3478.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2000. Implications of precipitation redistribution for shifts in temperate savanna ecotones. Ecology 81:1902-1913
Williams, D.G., G.R. McPherson, and J.F. Weltzin. 1999. Stress in wildland plants: implications for ecosystem structure and function. Pages 907 929 in M. Pessarakli, ed. Handbook of plant and crop stress, second edition. Marcel Dekker, New York, NY.
Weltzin, J.F., S.R. Archer, and R.K. Heitschmidt. 1998. Defoliation and woody plant (Prosopis glandulosa) seedling establishment: potential vs. realized herbivory tolerance. Plant Ecology 138:127-135
McPherson, G.R. and J.F. Weltzin. 1998. Herbaceous response to canopy removal in southwestern oak woodlands. Journal of Range Management 51:674-678
Weltzin, J.F., S.R. Archer, and R.K. Heitschmidt. 1997. Small mammal regulation of vegetation structure in a temperate savanna. Ecology 78:751-763
Weltzin, J.F., S.L. Dowhower, and R.K. Heitschmidt. 1997. Prairie dog effects on plant community structure in southern mixed-grass prairie. Southwestern Naturalist 42:251-258.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 1997. Spatial and temporal soil moisture resource partitioning by trees and savannas in a temperate savanna, Arizona, USA. Oecologia 112:156-164.
Germaine, H.L., G.R. McPherson, K. Rojahn, A. Nicholas, and J.F. Weltzin. 1997. Constraints on germination and emergence of Emory oak. Pages 225-230 in R.B. Standiford, technical coordinator. Proceedings of a Symposium on Oak Woodlands: Ecology, Management, and Urban Interface Issues. USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Experiment Station General Technical Report PSW-160, Berkeley, California
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 1995. Potential effects of climate change on lower treelines in the southwestern United States. Pages 180-193 in DeBano, L.F., G.J. Gottfried, R.H. Hamre, C.B. Edminster, P.F. Ffolliott, and A. Ortega-Rubio, technical coordinators. Biodiversity and Management of the Madrean Archipelago: The Sky Islands of Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Experiment Station General Technical Report RM-264, Fort Collins, Colorado
Weltzin, J. F. and M.B. Coughenour. 1990. Savanna tree influence on understory vegetation and soil nutrients in northwestern Kenya. Journal of Vegetation Science 1:325-334.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

Friday's Findings - November 6 2020

Friday's Findings - November 6 2020

Ecosystems Mission Area and Powell Center: 

Opportunities for Ecological Forecasting to Improve Natural Resource Management

Date: November 6, 2020 from...

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Will the early bird still get the worm?

Will the early bird still get the worm?

For migrating birds, timing is everything. Showing up at breeding grounds at the right time can ensure a great nesting spot with plenty of food. But...

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Just HOW EARLY is spring arriving in your neighborhood? Find out . . .

Just HOW EARLY is spring arriving in your neighborhood? Find out . . .

Get your flip-flops and shorts out because spring is arriving very early this year . . . at least 2-3 weeks early across almost the entire Southeast...

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Science and Products

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Sonoran desert spring wildflower display.

Ecological Forecasting Workshop

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending changes in ecosystem dynamics (that is, the approaching near-term changes in ecosystems). Managers may use the...
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John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
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Ecological Forecasting Workshop

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending changes in ecosystem dynamics (that is, the approaching near-term changes in ecosystems). Managers may use the information in f
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Workflows to Support Integrated Predictive Science Capacity: Forecasting Invasive Species for Natural Resource Planning and Risk Assessment

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno Forecast” ma
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A huge canyon surrounded by deep-set cliffs opens to reveal a sunny gorge and part of the Colorado River.

Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Collaborating with Resource Managers to Identify and Address Phenological Information Needs

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as springtime flowering or migrations between summer and winter habitats, that are often strongly controlled by changes in environmental conditions, including climate. Because species interact, shifts in one species’ phenology can have cascading effects throughout entire food webs and ecosystems. Recent advances have helped grow
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Developing APIs to support enterprise level monitoring using existing tools

In this age of rapidly developing technology, scientific information is constantly being gathered across large spatial scales. Yet, our ability to coordinate large-scale monitoring efforts depends on development of tools that leverage and integrate multiple sources of data. North American bats are experiencing unparalleled population declines. The North American Bat Monitoring Program...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Developing APIs to support enterprise level monitoring using existing tools

In this age of rapidly developing technology, scientific information is constantly being gathered across large spatial scales. Yet, our ability to coordinate large-scale monitoring efforts depends on development of tools that leverage and integrate multiple sources of data. North American bats are experiencing unparalleled population declines. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat), a
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Integration of Phenological Forecast Maps for Assessment of Biodiversity: An Enterprise Workflow

Recent open data policies of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which were fully enforceable on October 1, 2016, require that federally funded information products (publications, etc.) be made freely available to the public, and that the underlying data on which the conclusions are based must be released. A key and relevant...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Integration of Phenological Forecast Maps for Assessment of Biodiversity: An Enterprise Workflow

Recent open data policies of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which were fully enforceable on October 1, 2016, require that federally funded information products (publications, etc.) be made freely available to the public, and that the underlying data on which the conclusions are based must be released. A key and relevant aspect of these
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Image: Water on the Prairie

Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) seek to enhance scientific understanding of how climate trends and variability are linked to phenology across spatial scales, with the ultimate goal of being able to understand and predict climate impacts on natural resources. A key step towards achieving this long-term goal is connecting...
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Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Incorporating USGS Web Cameras into the Phenocam Network to Enhance Scientific Understanding of Phenological Trends and Variability

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) seek to enhance scientific understanding of how climate trends and variability are linked to phenology across spatial scales, with the ultimate goal of being able to understand and predict climate impacts on natural resources. A key step towards achieving this long-term goal is connecting local obser
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USGS science for a changing world logo

Geocaching Natural Features - Applying Game Mechanics to Citizen Science Data Collection

ScienceCache is a scientific geocaching mobile application framework that targets two user groups for citizen science data collection: youth and geocachers. By melding training and games into the hunt for place-based data collection sites and incorporating photo uploads as data and authentication, new volunteers can collaborate in robust data collection. Scientists build a project on the...
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Community for Data Integration (CDI)
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Geocaching Natural Features - Applying Game Mechanics to Citizen Science Data Collection

ScienceCache is a scientific geocaching mobile application framework that targets two user groups for citizen science data collection: youth and geocachers. By melding training and games into the hunt for place-based data collection sites and incorporating photo uploads as data and authentication, new volunteers can collaborate in robust data collection. Scientists build a project on the administr
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delta waters with a significant amount of floating vegetation

Webinar: The USA National Phenology Network: Informing Science, Conservation and Resource Management

View this webinar to learn more about the USA National Phenology Network.
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers
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Webinar: The USA National Phenology Network: Informing Science, Conservation and Resource Management

View this webinar to learn more about the USA National Phenology Network.
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The NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge

The 21st century continues to be characterized by major changes to the environment and the ecosystem services upon which society depends. Anticipating and responding to these changes requires that scientists explicitly forecast future conditions in real time (Dietze et al. 2018). Ecological forecasting, like weather and epidemiological forecasting, involves integrating data and models to...
Authors
R. Quinn Thomas, Carl Boettiger, Cayelan C. Carey, Michael C. Dietze, Leah R. Johnson, Melissa A. Kenney, Jason S. McLachlan, Jody A. Peters, Eric R. Sokol, Jake Weltzin, Alyssa Willson, Whitney Woelmer
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Ecosystems Mission Area

PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data

Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections...
Authors
Jeffrey T. Morisette, Katharyn A Duffy, Jake Weltzin, Dawn M Browning, Lee R Marsh, Aaron M. Friesz, Luke J Zachmann, Kyle Enns, Vincent A. Landau, Katharine L. Gerst, Theresa Crimmins, Katherine K. Jones, Tony Chang, Brian W. Miller, Tom Maiersperger, Andrew D. Richardson
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Fort Collins Science Center

U.S. Geological Survey landscape science strategy 2020–2030

Across our Nation, multiple Federal, State, Tribal, and local governments are working with stakeholders and landowners to restore, conserve, and manage lands and resources to benefit fish, wildlife, and people. One of the largest Federal efforts is led by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), with multiple DOI agencies working to conserve and manage public lands, resources, and...
Authors
Karen E. Jenni, Sarah K. Carter, Nicholas G. Aumen, Zachary H. Bowen, John Bradford, Michael A. Chotkowski, Leslie Hsu, Peter S. Murdoch, Scott W. Phillips, Kevin L. Pope, Rudy Schuster, Melanie J. Steinkamp, Jake Weltzin, George Z. Xian
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Ecosystems Mission Area, Cooperative Research Units, Science and Decisions Center, Chesapeake Bay Activities, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center , Fort Collins Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center

Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change

Evidence-based responses to climate change by society require operational and sustained information including biophysical indicator systems that provide up-to-date measures of trends and patterns against historical baselines. Two key components linking anthropogenic climate change to impacts on socio-ecological systems are the periodic inter- and intra-annual variations in physical...
Authors
Jake Weltzin, Julio L. Betancourt, Benjamin I. Cook, Theresa Crimmins, Carolyn Armstrong Enquist, MD Gerst, JE Gross, GM Henebry, Rebecca A. Hufft, MA Kenney, John S. Kimball, Bradley C. Reed, Steven W. Running
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers, Species Management Research Program, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center

Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the...
Authors
John Bradford, Jake Weltzin, Molly L. McCormick, Jill Baron, Zachary H. Bowen, R. Sky Bristol, Daren M. Carlisle, Theresa Crimmins, Paul C. Cross, Joe DeVivo, Mike Dietze, Mary Freeman, Jason Goldberg, Mevin Hooten, Leslie Hsu, Karen Jenni, Jennifer L. Keisman, Jonathan Kennen, Kathy Lee, David P. Lesmes, Keith Loftin, Brian W. Miller, Peter S. Murdoch, Jana Newman, Karen L. Prentice, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jordan S. Read, Jennifer Sieracki, Helen Sofaer, Steve Thur, Gordon Toevs, Francisco Werner, C. LeAnn White, Timothy White, Mark T. Wiltermuth
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Contaminant Biology, Environmental Health Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Kansas Water Science Center, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, New Jersey Water Science Center, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center

Community for data integration 2018 funded project report

The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 10 projects funded in fiscal year 2018, outlining their goals, activities, and accomplishments.
Authors
Leslie Hsu, Caitlin M. Andrews, John Bradford, Daniel D. Buscombe, Katherine J. Chase, Wesley M. Daniel, Jeanne M. Jones, Pam Fuller, Benjamin B. Mirus, Matthew E. Neilson, Hans W. Vraga, Jessica J. Walker, Dennis H. Walworth, Jonathan Warrick, Jake Weltzin, Daniel J. Wieferich, Nathan J. Wood
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Community for Data Integration (CDI), Wetland and Aquatic Research Center , Science Data Management

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and...
Authors
Sarah R. Weiskopf, Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Lisa G. Crozier, Sarah Gaichas, Roger Griffis, Jessica E. Halofsky, Kimberly J. W. Hyde, Toni Lyn Morelli, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Roldan C. Muñoz, Andrew J. Pershing, David L. Peterson, Rajendra Poudel, Michelle D Staudinger, Ariana Eileen Sutton-Grier, Laura M. Thompson, James M. Vose, Jake Weltzin, Kyle Powys Whyte
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Climate Adaptation Science Centers

Bridging the research-management gap: Landscape ecology in practice on public lands in the western United States

The field of landscape ecology has grown and matured in recent decades, but incorporating landscape science into land management decisions remains challenging. Many lands in the western United States are federally owned and managed for multiple uses, including recreation, conservation, and energy development. We argue for stronger integration of landscape science into the management of...
Authors
Sarah K. Carter, David Pilliod, Travis S. Haby, Karen L. Prentice, Cameron L. Aldridge, Patrick J. Anderson, Zachary H. Bowen, John Bradford, Samuel A. Cushman, Joseph C. DeVivo, Michael Duniway, Ryan S. Hathaway, Lisa Nelson, Courtney A. Schultz, Rudy Schuster, E. Jamie Trammell, Jake Weltzin
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Ecosystems Land Change Science Program, Land Management Research Program, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Southwest Biological Science Center

Short-term forecasts of insect phenology inform pest management

Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure, and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can facilitate early detection and control, increasing efficiency and effectiveness. In 2018, the U.S. National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) released a suite of ‘Pheno Forecast’...
Authors
Theresa Crimmins, Katharine L. Gerst, Diego Huerta, R. Lee Marsh, Erin E. Posthumus, Alyssa H. Rosemartin, Jeff R. Switzer, Jake Weltzin, Len Coop, Nicholas Dietschler, Daniel A. Herms, Samita Limbu, R. Talbot Trotter III, Mark Whitmore
By
Species Management Research Program, Community for Data Integration (CDI)

Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology

The sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological...
Authors
Sarah Elmendorf, Theresa Crimmins, Katharine L. Gerst, Jake Weltzin
By
Species Management Research Program

2018 USA National Phenology Annual Report

This report provides a very high-level summary of some of the USA-NPN’s accomplishments over the past year. The purpose is to share with USA-NPN funders, partners, and the general public the value of the organization.
Authors
Jake Weltzin, Theresa Crimmins
By
Species Management Research Program

Pheno forecasts predict seasonal activity of pest and invasive species to support decision making

The USA National Phenology Network’s Pheno Forecast maps indicate the status of insect pest or invasive plant life cycle stages in real time across the contiguous United States. This information can guide when to monitor or to undertake management activities. These maps, available at 2.5 km spatial resolution, are updated daily and are available six days into the future. Pheno Forecast...
Authors
Theresa Crimmins, Katharine L. Gerst, Erin E. Posthumus, Alyssa H. Rosemartin, Jake Weltzin
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program

Non-USGS Publications**

Resco de Dios, V., J.F. Weltzin, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman and D.G. Williams. 2014. Transitions from grassland to savanna under drought via passive facilitation by grasses. Journal of Vegetation Science 25:937–946. DOI: 10.1111/jvs.12164
Resco de Dios, V., J.F. Weltzin, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman, and D.G. Williams. 2012. Windows of opportunity for Prosopis velutina seedling establishment and encroachment in a semiarid grassland. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 14:275-282. DOI: 10.1016/j.ppees.2012.03.002
Souza, L. J.F. Weltzin, and N.J. Sanders. 2011. Differential effects of two dominant plant species on community structure and invasibility in an old-field ecosystem. Journal of Plant Ecology 4:123-131. DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtq027
Souza, L., W.A. Bunn, J.F. Weltzin, and N.J. Sanders. 2011. Similar biotic factors affect early establishment and abundance of an invasive plant species across spatial scales. Biological Invasions 13:255-267. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-010-9805-9
Kardol, P., C.E. Campany, L. Souza, R.J. Norby, J.F. Weltzin and A.T. Classen. 2010. Climate change effects on plant biomass alter dominance patterns and community evenness in an experimental old-field ecosystem. Global Change Biology 16:2676–2687. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02162.x
Souza, L., R.T. Belote, P. Kardol, J.F. Weltzin and R.J. Norby. 2010. CO2 enrichment accelerates successional development of an understory plant community. Journal of Plant Ecology 3:33-39. DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtp032
Classen, A.T., R.J. Norby, C.E. Campany, K.E. Sides, and J.F. Weltzin. 2010. Climate change alters seedling emergence and establishment in an old-field ecosystem. PLoS ONE 5(10): e13476. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013476
Engel, E.C., J.F. Weltzin, R.J. Norby, and A.T. Classen. 2009. Responses of an old-field plant community to interacting factors of elevated [CO2], warming, and soil moisture. Journal of Plant Ecology 2:1-11. DOI: 10.1093/jpe/rtn026
Resco de Dios, V., B.E. Ewers, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2009. Drought-induced hydraulic limitations constrain leaf gas exchange recovery after precipitation pulses in the C3 woody legume, Prosopis velutina. New Phytologist 181: 672–682
Bridgham, S.D., J. Pastor, B. Dewey, J.F. Weltzin, and K. Updegraff. 2008. Rapid carbon response of peatlands to climate change. Ecology 89:3041-3048. DOI: 10.1890/08-0279.1
Cable, J.M., K. Ogle, D.G. Williams, J.F. Weltzin and T.E. Huxman. 2008. Soil texture drives responses of soil respiration to precipitation pulses in the Sonoran desert: implications for climate change. Ecosystems 11:961-979. DOI: 10.1007/s10021-008-9172-x
White, J. R., R. D. Shannon, S.D. Bridgham, J. F. Weltzin, and J. Pastor. 2008. Effects of soil warming and drying on methane cycling in a northern peatland mesocosm study. Journal of Geophysical Research 113: G00A06. DOI: 10.1029/2007JG000609
McPherson, G.R. and J.F. Weltzin. 2008. Implications of peak oil for industrialized societies. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society 28:187-191. DOI: 10.1177/0270467608316098
Chen, J.Q., S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, A. Noormets, J. Keller, and J.F. Weltzin. 2008. Temperature responses to infrared-loading and water table manipulations in peatland mesocosms. Journal of Integrative Plant Biology 50:1484-1496. DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7909.2008.00757.x
Resco de Dios, V., D.D. Ignace, W. Sun, T.E. Huxman, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2008. Chlorophyll fluorescence, predawn water potential and photosynthesis in precipitation pulse-driven ecosystems – implications for ecological studies. Functional Ecology 22:479-483. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2435.2008.01396.x
Dermody, O, J.F. Weltzin, E.C. Engel, P. Allen, and R.J. Norby. 2008. How do elevated [CO2], warming, and reduced precipitation interact to affect soil moisture and LAI in an old field ecosystem? Plant and Soil 295:217- 227. DOI: 10.1007/s11104-007-9443-x
Engel, E.C. and J.F. Weltzin. 2008. Can community composition be predicted from pairwise species interactions? Plant Ecology 195:77-85. DOI: 10.1007/s11258-007-9300-2
Wan, S., R.J. Norby, J. Ledford, and J.F. Weltzin. 2007. Responses of soil respiration to elevated CO2, air warming, and soil water availability in a model old-field grassland. Global Change Biology 13:2411–2424. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01433.x
Perkins, T.A., W.R. Holmes, and J.F. Weltzin. 2007. Multi-species interactions in competitive hierarchies: New methods and empirical test. Journal of Vegetation Science 18:685-692. Runner-up, 2007 Editors’ Award; J. Veg. Sci. (2008) 19:1-2. DOI: 10.3170/2008-8-18468
Sanders, N.J., J.F. Weltzin, G.M. Crutsinger, M.C. Fitzpatrick, M.A. Nuñez, C.M. Oswalt, and K.E. Lane. 2007. Insects mediate the effects of propagule supply and resource availability on a plant invasion. Ecology 88:2383-2391. DOI: 10.1890/06-1449.1
Fortner, A.M. and J.F. Weltzin. 2007. Competitive hierarchy for four common old-field plant species depends on resource identity and availability. Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society 134:166-176. DOI: 10.3159/1095-5674(2007)134[166:CHFFCO]2.0.CO;2
Ignace, D.D., T.E. Huxman, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2007. Leaf gas exchange and water status responses of a native and non-native grass to precipitation across contrasting soil surfaces in the Sonoran Desert. Oecologia. DOI: 10.1007/s00442-007-0670-x
Fitzpatrick, M.C., J.F. Weltzin, N.J. Sanders, and R.R. Dunn. 2007. The biogeography of prediction error: Why does the introduced range of the fire ant over predict its native range? Global Ecology and Biogeography 16:24-33. DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-822x.2006.00258.x
Belote, R.T. and J.F. Weltzin. 2006. Interactions between two co-dominant, invasive plants in the understory of a temperate deciduous forest. Biological Invasions 8:1629-1641. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-005-3932-8
Potts, D.L., T.E. Huxman, J.M. Cable, N.B. English, D.D. Ignace, J.A. Eilts, M.J. Mason, J.F. Weltzin and D.G. Williams. 2006. Antecedent moisture and seasonal precipitation influence response of canopy scale carbon and water exchange to rainfall pulses in semi arid grassland. New Phytologist. DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2006.01732.x
Weltzin, J.F., R. T. Belote, L.T. Williams, J.K. Keller, and E.C. Engel. 2006. Authorship in ecology: attribution, accountability, and responsibility. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 4:435-441. DOI: 10.1890/1540-9295(2006)4[435:AIEAAA]2.0.CO;2 [Reply to comments: Weltzin, J.F., R. T. Belote, L.T. Williams, J.K. Keller, and E.C. Engel. 2007. Ensuring that “authors” write - the authors reply. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5:11].
Heisler, J.L. and J.F. Weltzin. 2006. Variability matters: towards a perspective on the influence of precipitation on terrestrial ecosystems. New Phytologist 172:189-192. DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2006.01876.x
Potts, D.L., T.E. Huxman, B.J. Enquist, J.F. Weltzin, and D.G. Williams. 2006. Resilience and resistance of ecosystem functional response to a precipitation pulse in a semi arid grassland. Journal of Ecology 94:23-30. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365 2745.2005.01060.x.
English, N.B., J.F. Weltzin, A. Fravolini, L.M. Thomas and D.G. Williams. 2005. The influence of soil texture and vegetation on soil moisture under rainout shelters in a semi-desert grassland. Journal of Arid Environments 63:324-343. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.013
Yepez, E.A., T.E. Huxman, D.D. Ignace, N.B. English, J.F. Weltzin, A.E. Castellanos, and D.G. Williams. 2005. Dynamics of transpiration and evaporation following a moisture pulse in semiarid grassland: a chamber based isotope method for partitioning flux components. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 132:359-376. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.09.006
Cole, P.G. and J.F. Weltzin. 2005. Light limitation creates patchy distribution of a non-native grass in eastern deciduous forests. Biological Invasions 7:477-488.
Weltzin1, J.F., J.K. Keller1, S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, P.B. Allen, and J. Chen. 2005. Litter as a control on fen plant community composition and production. Oikos 110:537-546. 1Authors contributed equally.
Fitzpatrick, M.C. and J.F. Weltzin. 2005. Ecological niche models and the geography of biological invasions: a review and a novel application. Pages 45-60 in Inderjit, editor. Ecological and Agricultural Aspects of Invasive Plants. Birkhauser Verlag/Switzerland.
Sanders, N.J., R.T. Belote and J.F. Weltzin. 2004. Multi trophic effects of elevated CO2 on understory plant and arthropod communities. Environmental Entomology 33:1609-1616.
Noormets, A., J. Chen, S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, J.F. Weltzin, B. Dewey, and J. LeMoine. 2004. The effects of infrared loading and water table on soil energy fluxes in northern peatlands. Ecosystems 7:573-582.
Chesson, P., R.L.E. Gebauer, S. Schwinning, N. Huntly, K. Wiegand, M.S.K. Ernest, A. Sher, A. Novoplansky, and J.F. Weltzin. 2004. Resource pulses, species interactions, and diversity maintenance in arid and semi arid environments. Oecologia 141:236-253.
Cole, P.G. and J.F. Weltzin. 2004. Environmental correlates of the distribution and abundance of Microstegium vimineum in East Tennessee, USA. Southeastern Naturalist 3:545-562.
Huxman1, T.E., M.D. Smith1, P.A. Fay, A.K. Knapp, M.R. Shaw, M.E. Loik, S.D. Smith, D.T. Tissue, J.C. Zak, J.F. Weltzin, W.T. Pockman, O.E. Sala, B. Haddad, J. Harte, G.W. Koch, S. Schwinning, E.E. Small, and D.G. Williams. 1Authors contributed equally. 2004. Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency. Nature 429:651-654.
Belote, R.T., J.F. Weltzin, and R.J. Norby. 2004. Response of an understory plant community to elevated [CO2] depends on differential responses of dominant invasive species and is mediated by soil water availability. New Phytologist 161:827-835.
Huxman, T.E., J.M. Cable, D. D. Ignace, J.A. Eilts, N.B. English, J.F. Weltzin, and D.G. Williams. 2004. Response of net ecosystem gas exchange to a simulated precipitation pulse in a semi-arid grassland: the role of native versus non-native grasses and soil texture. Oecologia 141:295 305.
English, N.B., D.G. Williams, and J.F. Weltzin. 2003. Soil temperature and moisture dynamics after experimental irrigation on two contrasting soils on the Santa Rita Experimental Range: implications for mesquite establishment. Pages 188-192 in McClaran, M.P., P.F. Ffolliott, and C.B. Edminster, tech coords. Santa Rita Experimental Range: 100 Years (1903 2003) of Accomplishments and Contributions. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-30.
Weltzin, J.F., M.E. Loik, S. Schwinning, D.G. Williams, P. Fay, B. Haddad, J. Harte, T.E. Huxman, A.K. Knapp, G. Lin, W.T. Pockman, M.R. Shaw, E. Small, M.D. Smith, S.D. Smith, D.T. Tissue, and J.C. Zak. 2003. Assessing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to potential changes in precipitation. BioScience 53:941-952.
Weltzin, J.F., N.Z. Muth, B. VonHolle, and P.G. Cole. 2003. Genetic diversity and invasibility: a test using a model system with a novel experimental design. Oikos 103:505-518.
Price, C.A. and J.F. Weltzin. 2003. Managing non-native plant populations through intensive plant community restoration in Cades Cove, Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. Restoration Ecology 11:351-358.
Drake, S.J., J.F. Weltzin, and P.D. Parr. 2003. Assessment of non-native invasive plants on the National Environmental Research Park at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Castanea 68:15-30.
Weltzin, J.F. and P.B. Allen. 2003. Tree seedling recruitment in temperate deciduous forest: interactive effects of soil moisture, light, and slope position. Pages 217 - 226 in Hanson, P.J. and S.D. Wullschleger, eds. North American temperate deciduous forest responses to changing precipitation regimes. Ecological Studies, Volume 166. Springer Verlag, New York.
Weltzin, J.F., R.T. Belote, and N.J. Sanders. 2003. Biological invaders in a greenhouse world: will elevated CO2 fuel plant invasions? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:146-153.
Weltzin, J.F., S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, J. Chen, and C. Harth. 2003. Potential effects of warming and drying on peatland plant community composition. Global Change Biology 9:141-151.
Weltzin, J.F. and D.T. Tissue. 2003. Resource pulses in arid environments - patterns of rain, patterns of life. New Phytologist 157:171-173.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2003. Assessing response of terrestrial populations, communities, and ecosystems to changes in precipitation regimes: progress to date and future directions. Pages 180-188 in Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson, eds. Changing Precipitation Regimes and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A North American Perspective. University of Arizona Press, Tucson.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2003. Predicting the response of terrestrial ecosystems to potential changes in precipitation regimes. Pages 3-8 in Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson, eds. Changing Precipitation Regimes and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A North American Perspective. University of Arizona Press, Tucson
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2003. Response of southwestern oak savannas to potential future precipitation regimes. Pages 127-146 in Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson, eds. Changing Precipitation Regimes and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A North American Perspective. University of
Arizona Press, Tucson
Pastor, J., B. Peckman, S.D. Bridgham, J.F. Weltzin, and J. Chen. 2002. Plant community dynamics, nutrient cycling, and alternative stable equilibria in peatlands. American Naturalist 160:553-568.
R.J. Norby, P.J. Hanson, E.G. O'Neill, T.J. Tschaplinski, J.F. Weltzin, R.T. Hansen, W. Cheng, S.D. Wullschleger, C.A. Gunderson, N.T. Edwards, and D.W. Johnson. 2002. Net primary productivity of a CO2-enriched deciduous forest and the implications for carbon storage. Ecological Applications 12:1261-1266.
Weltzin, J.F., K.A. Snyder, and D.G. Williams. 2001. Experimental manipulations of precipitation seasonality: effects on oak (Quercus) seedling demography and physiology. Western North American Naturalist 61:463-472.
Weltzin, J.F., C. Harth, S.D. Bridgham, J. Pastor, and M. Vonderharr. 2001. Production and microtopography of bog bryophytes: response to warming and water-table manipulations. Oecologia 128:557-565.
McPherson, G.R. and J.F. Weltzin. 2000. Disturbance and climate change in United States/Mexico borderland plant communities: A state-of-the-knowledge review. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-50. 20 pp
Hanson, P.J. and J.F. Weltzin. 2000. Drought and climate change as vectors of disturbance in temperate forest communities. Science of the Total Environment 262:205-220
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 1999. Facilitation of conspecific seedling recruitment and shifts in temperate savanna ecotones. Ecological Monographs 69:513-534
Weltzin, J.F., J. Pastor, C. Harth, S.D. Bridgham, K. Updegraff, and C.T. Chapin. 2000. Response of bog and fen plant communities to warming and water-table manipulations. Ecology 81:3464-3478.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 2000. Implications of precipitation redistribution for shifts in temperate savanna ecotones. Ecology 81:1902-1913
Williams, D.G., G.R. McPherson, and J.F. Weltzin. 1999. Stress in wildland plants: implications for ecosystem structure and function. Pages 907 929 in M. Pessarakli, ed. Handbook of plant and crop stress, second edition. Marcel Dekker, New York, NY.
Weltzin, J.F., S.R. Archer, and R.K. Heitschmidt. 1998. Defoliation and woody plant (Prosopis glandulosa) seedling establishment: potential vs. realized herbivory tolerance. Plant Ecology 138:127-135
McPherson, G.R. and J.F. Weltzin. 1998. Herbaceous response to canopy removal in southwestern oak woodlands. Journal of Range Management 51:674-678
Weltzin, J.F., S.R. Archer, and R.K. Heitschmidt. 1997. Small mammal regulation of vegetation structure in a temperate savanna. Ecology 78:751-763
Weltzin, J.F., S.L. Dowhower, and R.K. Heitschmidt. 1997. Prairie dog effects on plant community structure in southern mixed-grass prairie. Southwestern Naturalist 42:251-258.
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 1997. Spatial and temporal soil moisture resource partitioning by trees and savannas in a temperate savanna, Arizona, USA. Oecologia 112:156-164.
Germaine, H.L., G.R. McPherson, K. Rojahn, A. Nicholas, and J.F. Weltzin. 1997. Constraints on germination and emergence of Emory oak. Pages 225-230 in R.B. Standiford, technical coordinator. Proceedings of a Symposium on Oak Woodlands: Ecology, Management, and Urban Interface Issues. USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Experiment Station General Technical Report PSW-160, Berkeley, California
Weltzin, J.F. and G.R. McPherson. 1995. Potential effects of climate change on lower treelines in the southwestern United States. Pages 180-193 in DeBano, L.F., G.J. Gottfried, R.H. Hamre, C.B. Edminster, P.F. Ffolliott, and A. Ortega-Rubio, technical coordinators. Biodiversity and Management of the Madrean Archipelago: The Sky Islands of Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico. USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Experiment Station General Technical Report RM-264, Fort Collins, Colorado
Weltzin, J. F. and M.B. Coughenour. 1990. Savanna tree influence on understory vegetation and soil nutrients in northwestern Kenya. Journal of Vegetation Science 1:325-334.

**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.

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