Landscape Change and Impacts

Soils are the foundation of terrestrial ecosystems. They provide critical services including supplying a substrate and the nutrients necessary for plant growth, retaining moisture from precipitation, filtering contaminants from percolating waters, and acting as a sink of carbon. Healthy soils are key to sustaining both human and ecosystem health. However, global- and regional-scale disturbances...

On a global scale, wetland systems have been affected by climate extremes, changing sea level, and population growth, reducing their capacity to moderate storm surge, filter contaminants, store carbon, and provide habitats for fish and wildlife. This research takes a long-term perspective on the resilience of wetlands to a range of climatic and human-induced changes and provides critical data to...

The past decade encompasses some of the most extensive fire activity in recorded history. An area the size of Vermont (~24,000 km2) burned in a single Siberian fire in the summer of 2019 (Kehrwald et al., 2020 and references therein) while Australia, Indonesia and the Amazon have all experienced their most intense fires in recorded history (van Wees et al, 2021 and references therein). As more...

Mountain glaciers are dynamic reservoirs of frozen water closely coupled to ecosystems and climate. Glacier change in North America has major socioeconomic impacts, including global sea level change, tourism disruption, natural hazard risk, fishery effects, and water resource alteration. Understanding and quantifying precise connections between glaciers and climate is critical to decision makers...

The term environmental streamflows refers to the magnitude, frequency, seasonal timing, duration, and rate of change of streamflows needed to sustain freshwater and estuary ecosystems and human wellbeing. It is important that environmental streamflow assessments by water managers consider changes in climate, land use, and water management; this cannot be done effectively without understanding...

This project focuses on development of new interdisciplinary modeling capabilities of long-term time series that capture interactions among climate, land use, water use, and water availability. Research builds on expanding the USGS Forecasting Scenarios of Land Use (FORE-SCE) model and integrating with spatially explicit models from other disciplines. Interdisciplinary models will be co-developed...

Land cover change is one of the fundamental measures for understanding pressures on ecosystems and is widely used to understand the consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study utilizes land cover and other associated socioeconomic and environmental data to examine the consequences of land cover change in human-dominated landscapes, and how provisioning of ecosystem services...

Warming and thawing of permafrost soils in the Arctic is expected to become widespread over the coming decades. Permafrost thaw changes ecosystem structure and function, affects resource availability for wildlife and society, and decreases ground stability which affects human infrastructure. Since permafrost soils contain about half of the global soil carbon (C) pool, the magnitude of C losses...

Drought and fire are powerful disturbance agents that can trigger rapid and lasting changes in the forests of western North America. Over the last decade, increases in fire size and severity coincided with warming, drought, and earlier snowmelt, factors that projected climatic changes are likely to exacerbate. However, recent observations are brief relative to the lifespans of trees and include...

Snow avalanches are a widespread natural hazard to humans and infrastructure as well as an important landscape disturbance affecting mountain ecosystems. Forecasting avalanche frequency is challenging on various spatial and temporal scales, and this project aims to fill a gap in snow science by focusing on reconstructing avalanche history on the continental mountain range scale - throughout the...

The purpose of this work is to advance our understanding of how coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise (SLR) within the conterminous United States are likely to vary as a function of local, regional, and macroscale drivers, including climate. Based on our interactions with managers and decision makers, as well as our knowledge of the current state of the science, we propose to: (a) conduct a...

In the intermountain west, seasonal precipitation extremes, combined with population growth, are creating new challenges for the management of water resources, ecosystems, and geologic hazards. This research contributes a comprehensive long-term context for a deeper understanding of past hydrologic variability, including the magnitude and frequency of drought and flood extremes and ecosystem...