Wildfires are an essential part of forest and rangeland health. However, as climate conditions become hotter and drier, wildfires have grown more intense and destructive across much of the U.S. To help address this threat, USGS develops state-of-the-art science to assess the effects of changing climate on wildfire patterns. This information is invaluable for fire management across the country.
Fire Danger Forecaster
In a joint effort between the USGS and the U.S. Forest Service, the Fire Danger Forecasting Project focuses on research and development of maps suited for monitoring and forecasting wildfire potential within the conterminous United States.
Stay Informed about Wildfire Risk
The USGS provides valuable resources that inform wildland fire prevention, response, and recovery. Check out some useful links related to wildfire, smoke, and post-fire hazards.
Effect of Climate Change on Wildfires
Over the last several decades, climate conditions, especially in the western United States, have grown hotter and drier. If climate change continues to play out as predicted, the likelihood of wildfires will worsen.
Our understanding of fire’s role in the natural world and fire management policies has changed over the last century. We have learned that fire is an important part of many ecosystems. It “cleans out” dead leaves and branches, adds nutrients to the soil, and helps the seeds of some plants to sprout. Knowing this, policies have shifted away from full fire suppression to that of more natural fire cycles.
Unfortunately, while we are working to improve fire management, we are also dealing with the compounding issue of climate change. Many regions of the U.S. are now experiencing prolonged periods of drought and record temperatures. These areas often also have an excessive buildup of fallen leaves and understory brush. Conditions remain ripe to drive intense wildfires that damage natural areas and, sadly, nearby communities.
Example of Secondary Climate-Related Wildfire Factors
Another aspect that warmer temperatures have on the landscape is they allow non-native creatures to travel to and survive in areas they previously found uninhabitable. One example of a problematic species is the invasive bark beetle. Climate change has eliminated the seasonal cold spells that would normally kill off the beetles. Bark beetles have killed 100,000 square miles of trees across western North America in the last 20 years. The swaths of dead trees are much more susceptible to wildfire and increase the likelihood that a fire can spread faster and farther.
USGS Science Helps Before, During, and After Fires
To protect natural and human communities, resource managers need information on how wildfires of the future will be different from those of the past. To address this need, USGS researchers develop state-of-the-art science to understand the effects of climate change on wildfires.
Our science helps to:
- Understand the effects of changing fire patterns on wildlife, fish, and landscapes
- Forecast future wildfire risks and identify vulnerable ecosystems and communities
- Develop strategies to support post-fire recovery
- Understand the effects of wildfires on watersheds, water resources, and freshwater ecosystems
- Understand impacts of ash, smoke, and fire on wildlife, ecosystem, and human health
- Develop strategies to mitigate compounding impacts of fire, species invasions, and drought
- Build advanced computer models that can help managers plan prescribed fires, which can prevent damaging wildfires and promote ecosystem health, and predict the behavior and impacts of wildfire to aid in fire suppression and post-fire ecological monitoring
CASC Fire Research Highlights
Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Economics of Wildland Fire
Wildland Fire Science in Forests and Deserts
Integrated Wildland Fire Science
Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest
Eyes on Earth Episode 63 – ECOSTRESS and Post-Fire Recovery
Fires can be destructive or healthy for a landscape—often both. Fires have grown larger and more destructive in recent years, though, thanks to human activity, climate change, and a host of other factors. Satellite data helps us to map and monitor fire activity, but the study of post-fire plant life using remote sensing data goes further than fire mapping.
Where can I find wildfire perimeter data?
The USGS operated the Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination (GeoMAC) website from 2000-2020. GeoMAC was the public face of all wildland fire perimeters. That site was shut down on April 30, 2020 and responsibility for wildfire information was transferred to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). The GeoMAC mapping application at "geomac.gov" has been replaced by the National Fire Situational...
Will global warming produce more frequent and more intense wildfires?
There isn’t a direct relationship between climate change and fire, but researchers have found strong correlations between warm summer temperatures and large fire years, so there is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change.Hot, dry conditions, however, do not automatically mean fire—something needs to create the spark and actually start the fire. In some parts of the...
What should I know about wildfires and debris flows?
Wildland fires are inevitable in the western United States. Expansion of human development into forested areas has created a situation where wildfires can adversely affect lives and property, as can the flooding and landslides that occur in the aftermath of the fires. There is a need to develop tools and methods to identify and quantify the potential hazards posed by landslides produced from...
- Overview
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
Wildfires are expansive and expensive. USGS science can help inform land, water, and emergency management decisions. Effect of Climate Change on Wildfires
Over the last several decades, climate conditions, especially in the western United States, have grown hotter and drier. If climate change continues to play out as predicted, the likelihood of wildfires will worsen.
Our understanding of fire’s role in the natural world and fire management policies has changed over the last century. We have learned that fire is an important part of many ecosystems. It “cleans out” dead leaves and branches, adds nutrients to the soil, and helps the seeds of some plants to sprout. Knowing this, policies have shifted away from full fire suppression to that of more natural fire cycles.
Unfortunately, while we are working to improve fire management, we are also dealing with the compounding issue of climate change. Many regions of the U.S. are now experiencing prolonged periods of drought and record temperatures. These areas often also have an excessive buildup of fallen leaves and understory brush. Conditions remain ripe to drive intense wildfires that damage natural areas and, sadly, nearby communities.
Example of Secondary Climate-Related Wildfire Factors
Another aspect that warmer temperatures have on the landscape is they allow non-native creatures to travel to and survive in areas they previously found uninhabitable. One example of a problematic species is the invasive bark beetle. Climate change has eliminated the seasonal cold spells that would normally kill off the beetles. Bark beetles have killed 100,000 square miles of trees across western North America in the last 20 years. The swaths of dead trees are much more susceptible to wildfire and increase the likelihood that a fire can spread faster and farther.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.If fires burn too hot or too frequently, they can prevent slow-growing native plants and trees from regrowing. When this happens, the landscape will transform into a new type of ecosystem. For example, a forest will become a grassland, a grassland will become a desert, etc. The USGS is at the forefront of understanding ecosystem transformations and helping managers anticipate and prevent unwanted transformations.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Soot and ash from wildfires routinely flow into nearby lakes and streams, clouding the water and introducing unwanted pollutants. This can have negative effects on downstream wildlife, ecosystem, and human health. The USGS is actively engaged in monitoring and studying post-wildfire water quality.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.Some particularly damaging invasive species are highly fire-adapted. When wildfires occur, these weeds grow back faster than the native species, helping them spread to new areas. Even worse, some species (like cheatgrass) burn extra hot, so hot that their fires kill the seeds and roots of native trees and grasses. Therefore, the only thing that grows back is more cheatgrass, creating a horrible, fiery cycle! Learn more about wildfire and invasive plants here. USGS Science Helps Before, During, and After Fires
To protect natural and human communities, resource managers need information on how wildfires of the future will be different from those of the past. To address this need, USGS researchers develop state-of-the-art science to understand the effects of climate change on wildfires.
Our science helps to:
- Understand the effects of changing fire patterns on wildlife, fish, and landscapes
- Forecast future wildfire risks and identify vulnerable ecosystems and communities
- Develop strategies to support post-fire recovery
- Understand the effects of wildfires on watersheds, water resources, and freshwater ecosystems
- Understand impacts of ash, smoke, and fire on wildlife, ecosystem, and human health
- Develop strategies to mitigate compounding impacts of fire, species invasions, and drought
- Build advanced computer models that can help managers plan prescribed fires, which can prevent damaging wildfires and promote ecosystem health, and predict the behavior and impacts of wildfire to aid in fire suppression and post-fire ecological monitoring
- Publications
- Science
CASC Fire Research Highlights
Rising temperatures, more frequent and severe droughts, and invasive species spread have caused fire seasons to become longer and more intense across the United States. The CASC network works with partners to develop knowledge and tools to help better understand region-specific drivers of wildfires and facilitate ecosystem recovery post-fire.Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate
Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require informationEconomics of Wildland Fire
In recent decades, wildfires have increased in size and intensity, and the fire season has lengthened. This and other factors have increased wildfire suppression costs and risks to human health and safety. SEA economists investigate numerous aspects of wildland fire, its impacts, and how to mitigate the risk wildfire poses to people, resources, and property.Wildland Fire Science in Forests and Deserts
Fuel conditions and fire regimes in western forests and deserts have been altered due to past land management, biological invasions, and recent extreme weather events and climate shifts. These changes have created extreme fire risk to local and regional communities, threatening their economic health related to wildland recreation, forest production, livestock operations, and other uses of public...Integrated Wildland Fire Science
The size and number of large wildland fires in the western United States have grown dramatically over the past decade, with a contingent rise in damages and suppression costs. This trend will likely continue with further growth of the wildland urban interface (WUI) into fire prone ecosystems, hazardous fuel conditions from decades of fire suppression, and a potentially increasing effect from...Changing Fires, Changing Forests: The Effects of Climate Change on Wildfire Patterns and Forests in the Pacific Northwest
As the dominant force that sets the structure and function of most Pacific Northwest forests, fire is likely to be the major catalyst of forest change in a warming climate. Rising temperatures, decreased snowpack, and earlier snowmelt are expected to lead to longer fire seasons, drier fuel, and an increase in the area burned by wildfires in the future. Forest managers therefore need information on - Data and More
- Multimedia
Eyes on Earth Episode 63 – ECOSTRESS and Post-Fire Recovery
Fires can be destructive or healthy for a landscape—often both. Fires have grown larger and more destructive in recent years, though, thanks to human activity, climate change, and a host of other factors. Satellite data helps us to map and monitor fire activity, but the study of post-fire plant life using remote sensing data goes further than fire mapping.
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- Connect
- FAQ
Where can I find wildfire perimeter data?
The USGS operated the Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination (GeoMAC) website from 2000-2020. GeoMAC was the public face of all wildland fire perimeters. That site was shut down on April 30, 2020 and responsibility for wildfire information was transferred to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). The GeoMAC mapping application at "geomac.gov" has been replaced by the National Fire Situational...
Will global warming produce more frequent and more intense wildfires?
There isn’t a direct relationship between climate change and fire, but researchers have found strong correlations between warm summer temperatures and large fire years, so there is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change.Hot, dry conditions, however, do not automatically mean fire—something needs to create the spark and actually start the fire. In some parts of the...
What should I know about wildfires and debris flows?
Wildland fires are inevitable in the western United States. Expansion of human development into forested areas has created a situation where wildfires can adversely affect lives and property, as can the flooding and landslides that occur in the aftermath of the fires. There is a need to develop tools and methods to identify and quantify the potential hazards posed by landslides produced from...